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Survival and Preparations Long and short term survival and 'prepping'.

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  #1  
Old 03-07-2014, 7:48 AM
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Default Odds of Disaster

73.6% of all statistics are made up. After catching up on some posts here, I noticed that some people have decided to make up the odds of things happening to punctuate their argument.

What do you think the odds are of something happening?

Copy the below list for your reply and input in your odds of this happening to you. Optional, include how you have prepared for it.

If you want clarification on any of the below events, visit http://www.ready.gov/be-informed

Here are all of the disasters that FEMA mentions:

**Please include your rough location. **

TECHNOLOGICAL & ACCIDENTAL HAZARDS
-Blackouts:
-Hazardous Materials Incidents:
-Household Chemical Emergencies:
-Nuclear Power Plants:

Natural
-Drought:
-Earthquakes:
-Extreme Heat:
-Floods:
-Home Fires:
-Hurricanes:
-Landslides and Debris Flow:
-Severe Weather:
-Space Weather:
-Thunderstorms and Lightning:
-Tornadoes:
-Tsunamis:
-Volcanoes:
-Wildfires:
-Winter Storms and Extreme Cold:

Terrorist Hazards
-Biological Threats:
-Chemical Threats:
-Cyber Attack:
-Explosions:
-Nuclear Blast:
-Radio-logical Dispersion Device (RDD):

Last edited by jerhyn; 03-07-2014 at 9:00 AM..
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  #2  
Old 03-07-2014, 8:10 AM
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everything is greater than 1 in 100 so i doubt any would happen in my lifetime, but i am self sufficient for a couple months
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Old 03-07-2014, 8:11 AM
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odds are useless. Risk management is about balancing the qualitative odds of an event happening vs the consequences of the action.

So, the odds of a large meteor hitting the earth is low, but the consequences are really high. So it boils down to a medium risk, which is why folks are tracking near earth objects.

Same with all these items above. The actual risk of disaster for any of these is really low. But the consequences if it does happen are pretty high.

So the majority of all these boil down to a medium risk kind of thing.

The quantitative probabilities, besides being subject to extreme debate, are largely useless from a risk management perspective. I don't need to know how much less likely it is for nuclear fallout vs a really cold winter to understand the realistic risk of each.
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Old 03-07-2014, 8:23 AM
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Odds are that some wacko will hit me on the road before any of that other stuff ever happens.

I'm staying home.
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Old 03-07-2014, 8:32 AM
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First off, the odds of a SHTF event vary by location. If you're in LA or SF you're at a greater risk of an earthquake then those in Redding. Aside from regional odds I think the overall odds of a sever SHTF event as low. But being prepared is high.
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  #6  
Old 03-07-2014, 8:33 AM
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I don't like %s so I'll go with timing (#of occurrences / # of years)

-Blackouts: 3 every 5yrs
-Hazardous Materials Incidents: 1/ 10
-Household Chemical Emergencies: 1/3
-Nuclear Power Plants: 1/25

Natural
-Drought: 1/1 (California going forward)
-Earthquakes: 1/10
-Extreme Heat: 1/3
-Floods: 1/100
-Home Fires: 1/20
-Hurricanes: 0/1,000
-Landslides and Debris Flow: 1/20
-Severe Weather: 3/10
-Space Weather: 1/1000
-Thunderstorms and Lightning: 2/3
-Tornadoes: 1/20
-Tsunamis: 1/50
-Volcanoes: 0/10,000
-Wildfires: 1/10
-Winter Storms and Extreme Cold: 2/10

Terrorist Hazards
-Biological Threats: 1/25
-Chemical Threats: 1/25
-Cyber Attack: 1/5
-Explosions: 1/25
-Nuclear Blast: 1/20
-Radio-logical Dispersion Device (RDD) 0/100
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Old 03-07-2014, 8:53 AM
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Zombies, as if you are prepared for Zombies, you are more prepared than like 75%(?) of the ignorant population FOR ANYTHING, and everything else is child's play...

I actually think a few things could happen, and in my neck of the woods: Earthquake, civil unrest (due to EBT failure?), scumbags breaking in to rape/rob/hurt, a nuke or dirty-bomb by scumbags, and my biggest fear is full financial collapse and then riots like is happeneing is so many other countries right now just like when Hitler: the "other" tyrant took power (remember... everything Hitler did was legal, unlike Obama's ignorance).

There is a probability of a solar flare wiping out the grid, and then maybe the Mexican drug cartels, or Socialists wanting to take over because they are power hungry. Some Asian country (including Rooskies) COULD try to take over for the (over-)taxing-opportunity (just like Democrats try to do, on the DAILY).

Odds? Well the odds are pretty good that something will happen in my lifetime, and if I am gone for some reason, I want my children and lady to at least have some food, preparations, and protection.
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Old 03-07-2014, 8:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiterabbit View Post
odds are useless. Risk management is about balancing the qualitative odds of an event happening vs the consequences of the action.

So, the odds of a large meteor hitting the earth is low, but the consequences are really high. So it boils down to a medium risk, which is why folks are tracking near earth objects.

Same with all these items above. The actual risk of disaster for any of these is really low. But the consequences if it does happen are pretty high.

So the majority of all these boil down to a medium risk kind of thing.

The quantitative probabilities, besides being subject to extreme debate, are largely useless from a risk management perspective. I don't need to know how much less likely it is for nuclear fallout vs a really cold winter to understand the realistic risk of each.
All this ^ add to the calculation what can you do about a given hazard and you should be able determine a course of action.
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Old 03-07-2014, 8:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ron Swanson View Post
First off, the odds of a SHTF event vary by location. If you're in LA or SF you're at a greater risk of an earthquake then those in Redding. Aside from regional odds I think the overall odds of a sever SHTF event as low. But being prepared is high.
Which is why I said the odds if it happening to you...
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Old 03-07-2014, 9:15 AM
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'Something happening' is too general a phrase, so I'll define it to mean a disaster which effects at minimum the entire city in which I live, and has such a lasting, significant, negative impact that normal life itself cannot go on, and people are relying on their preps if they have them, bugging in or out, or they're foraging / scavenging simply to survive.

wildfire: 50% in my lifetime, 100% eventually

earthquake: 10% in my lifetime, 100% eventually

economic: 2% in my lifetime, 100% eventually

grid-down: .01% in my lifetime, 100% eventually

Everything else combined: .000000000001% in my lifetime
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Old 03-07-2014, 9:21 AM
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Originally Posted by speedrrracer View Post
'Something happening' is too general a phrase, so I'll define it to mean a disaster which effects at minimum the entire city in which I live, and has such a lasting, significant, negative impact that normal life itself cannot go on, and people are relying on their preps if they have them, bugging in or out, or they're foraging / scavenging simply to survive.

wildfire: 50% in my lifetime, 100% eventually

earthquake: 10% in my lifetime, 100% eventually

economic: 2% in my lifetime, 100% eventually

grid-down: .01% in my lifetime, 100% eventually

Everything else combined: .000000000001% in my lifetime
62.010000000001% chance of SOMETHING happening sounds reasonable.
I like to better my family's odds... by preparing for SOMETHING, rather than accepting defeat like both my parents do by saying more or less: "if it happens, let it happen, I will accept defeat... I wouldn't want to fight."
I took my mother to the range with me and paid her fees, and she shot one 22lr, and said she was done, and she didn't like guns and they could do whatever they wanted if someone broke into her house.
THAT is unacceptable in my eyes.
I told her that I wanted to take her to make sure she was familiar with some long-guns so that if anything happened that she could use something I lent her, and she half-azzed it.
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  #12  
Old 03-07-2014, 9:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tamalpias View Post
everything is greater than 1 in 100 so i doubt any would happen in my lifetime, but i am self sufficient for a couple months
The point of the exercise is evaluate the chances of certain events happening that would require preparation. You doubt anything will happen, but prepared anyways. So what did you prepare for and why?
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  #13  
Old 03-07-2014, 9:35 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Whiterabbit View Post
odds are useless. Risk management is about balancing the qualitative odds of an event happening vs the consequences of the action.

So, the odds of a large meteor hitting the earth is low, but the consequences are really high. So it boils down to a medium risk, which is why folks are tracking near earth objects.

Same with all these items above. The actual risk of disaster for any of these is really low. But the consequences if it does happen are pretty high.

So the majority of all these boil down to a medium risk kind of thing.

The quantitative probabilities, besides being subject to extreme debate, are largely useless from a risk management perspective. I don't need to know how much less likely it is for nuclear fallout vs a really cold winter to understand the realistic risk of each.
So you understand the effects the events can have, and assume the probability of them happening are low.

Risk management is the identification, assessment, and prioritization of risks (defined in ISO 31000 as the effect of uncertainty on objectives, whether positive or negative) followed by coordinated and economical application of resources to minimize, monitor, and control the probability and/or impact of unfortunate events[1] or to maximize the realization of opportunities.

How do you prioritize if everything is a medium risk, which is a key factor of risk management?
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Old 03-07-2014, 9:42 AM
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Originally Posted by Jimi Jah View Post
Odds are that some wacko will hit me on the road before any of that other stuff ever happens.

I'm staying home.
By car insurance industry estimates, you will file a claim for a collision about once every 17.9 years. Source

A car accident would definitely be a disaster. Although staying at home is more avoiding than preparation.

Which is considerably less likely than what calif 15-22 estimates for some other SHTF events.
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Old 03-07-2014, 10:00 AM
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Originally Posted by calif 15-22 View Post
I don't like %s so I'll go with timing (#of occurrences / # of years)

-Blackouts: 3 every 5yrs
-Hazardous Materials Incidents: 1/ 10
-Household Chemical Emergencies: 1/3
-Nuclear Power Plants: 1/25

Natural
-Drought: 1/1 (California going forward)
-Earthquakes: 1/10
-Extreme Heat: 1/3
-Floods: 1/100
-Home Fires: 1/20
-Hurricanes: 0/1,000
-Landslides and Debris Flow: 1/20
-Severe Weather: 3/10
-Space Weather: 1/1000
-Thunderstorms and Lightning: 2/3
-Tornadoes: 1/20
-Tsunamis: 1/50
-Volcanoes: 0/10,000
-Wildfires: 1/10
-Winter Storms and Extreme Cold: 2/10

Terrorist Hazards
-Biological Threats: 1/25
-Chemical Threats: 1/25
-Cyber Attack: 1/5
-Explosions: 1/25
-Nuclear Blast: 1/20
-Radio-logical Dispersion Device (RDD) 0/100
Congratulations to the first and only person so far to follow directions

Just curious as how to you came up with your occurrences/year? Like what data did you based this on?
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Old 03-07-2014, 8:22 PM
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SHTF is a natural occurrence in tropical climated third world countries. I visited one before and two coup d'etats happened… mass panic… and tanks shooting on the freeway. Rape and murder mixed in as well.

In the US.A. a home invasion is more likely to happen, or a black out for electrical failure reasons and not SHTF.

WW3 has a higher probability to happen in the future because of greed.
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Old 03-07-2014, 8:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jerhyn View Post
Here are all of the disasters that FEMA mentions:
...
It won't be any of these.
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Old 03-07-2014, 9:55 PM
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would say total is 75 percent chance a personal one day or more shft will happen.

And your wrong op I know for a fact only 68.9 percent of statistics are made up.
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Old 03-08-2014, 8:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jerhyn View Post
73.6% of all statistics are made up. After catching up on some posts here, I noticed that some people have decided to make up the odds of things happening to punctuate their argument.

What do you think the odds are of something happening?

Copy the below list for your reply and input in your odds of this happening to you. Optional, include how you have prepared for it.

If you want clarification on any of the below events, visit http://www.ready.gov/be-informed

Here are all of the disasters that FEMA mentions:

**Please include your rough location. **

TECHNOLOGICAL & ACCIDENTAL HAZARDS
-Blackouts:
-Hazardous Materials Incidents:
-Household Chemical Emergencies:
-Nuclear Power Plants:

Natural
-Drought:
-Earthquakes:
-Extreme Heat:
-Floods:
-Home Fires:
-Hurricanes:
-Landslides and Debris Flow:
-Severe Weather:
-Space Weather:
-Thunderstorms and Lightning:
-Tornadoes:
-Tsunamis:
-Volcanoes:
-Wildfires:
-Winter Storms and Extreme Cold:

Terrorist Hazards
-Biological Threats:
-Chemical Threats:
-Cyber Attack:
-Explosions:
-Nuclear Blast:
-Radio-logical Dispersion Device (RDD):
You must be kidding, right?
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Old 03-08-2014, 8:01 PM
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Percentages aside, I see two catagories for each disaster.

1. Those that will directly impact me. This meaning (for example) that I experience XXX disaster for XXX days and need to function somewhat normally.

2. Those that will indirectly impact me. This meaning (for example) that others experience XXX disaster for XXX days and need to function somewhat normally so they move into my geographical area and begin using resourses that no one here was prepared for them to use.

Clearly, disaster type 1 will be easier to deal with as there are several options. Disaster type 2 presents several issues that are pretty evident and therefore will be exponentially more difficult to deal with.
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Old 03-09-2014, 7:36 AM
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You must be kidding, right?
Not kidding, I wanted to get a feel for what people are prepping for based on what they feel the odds for certain disasters are. You don't have to participate, but asking if I am serious is a waste our time.
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Old 03-09-2014, 9:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jerhyn View Post
73.6% of all statistics are made up. :
Including this one?
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Old 03-09-2014, 1:24 PM
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Percentage odds are impossible for me to calculate with any robustness so I'd just make qualitative categories on a scale of maybe 1 to 5 with 5 being most likely and maybe impact of 1 to 10 with 10 being end of days and 1 being serous enough to watch on the news for entertainment value, 2 being a stubbed toe and late for work, 3 being police activity and detour wide around the area etc etc...

Asteroid impact: likelihood 1, impact 10.
Civil unrest: likelihood 4, impact 2 at place of residence, at place of work 5 & 8.
Northridge level quake: likelihood 5, impact 5.
San Fran 1906 strength quake, likelihood 4, impact 7 et cetera....
Unemployment/Underemployment/Business failure: likelihood 4, impact with mortgage and car loan = 7, without = 3.

Interesting mental exercise...I guess it might be useful to help calm folks who are new to prepping and a little bit freaked out about everything.
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Old 03-09-2014, 1:26 PM
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Probability of needing food and water and shelter to survive: 100%

Probability that typical, convenient means of acquiring those items are available: <%100
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Old 03-09-2014, 3:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Fjold View Post
Including this one?
Could be, I googled it

Seemed like a legit enough source.
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Old 03-09-2014, 3:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Chaparral View Post
Percentage odds are impossible for me to calculate with any robustness so I'd just make qualitative categories on a scale of maybe 1 to 5 with 5 being most likely and maybe impact of 1 to 10 with 10 being end of days and 1 being serous enough to watch on the news for entertainment value, 2 being a stubbed toe and late for work, 3 being police activity and detour wide around the area etc etc...

Asteroid impact: likelihood 1, impact 10.
Civil unrest: likelihood 4, impact 2 at place of residence, at place of work 5 & 8.
Northridge level quake: likelihood 5, impact 5.
San Fran 1906 strength quake, likelihood 4, impact 7 et cetera....
Unemployment/Underemployment/Business failure: likelihood 4, impact with mortgage and car loan = 7, without = 3.

Interesting mental exercise...I guess it might be useful to help calm folks who are new to prepping and a little bit freaked out about everything.
Exactly, and percents may not have been the best way to look at it.

I had no idea where to start when I was new. So I started with a 72 hour bag. From there... I just kept thinking... what am I prepping for...? What could have a double use, like camping equipment, recreational gear, etc.

Buying things just because, seems like a very inefficient way to prep since you don't even know what you are prepared for.
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Old 03-09-2014, 3:51 PM
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I was caught by the Quake of '89, and we were holed up for 3 days.

So this already equals 100% for me.

I have and always had provisions for several months, rice and water, with a camp stove and fuel to cook it with. So I was never worried.

The camp stove allowed me to cook everything in my fridge that might spoil. An ice chest kept cool everything stacked together from the freezer for awhile. So it was 3 days of feasting, at that time.

What are the chances of another such event in California?

Probably 100% somewhere. You just don't know where though. So you always need to be prepared.

I keep four one-gallon jugs of water frozen in the freezer all the time in case it happens again. And an ice chest above the fridge as well. Next time, frozen food will go into the ice chest with the ice blocks next to it. I learned that from the Quake of '89. That was the only thing I was not prepared for at the time. No ice in the freezer, except one bag of crushed, and a few trays of ice cubes.

The camp stove is fueled by white gas, and unleaded gas from your car is similar enough to where you can siphon it from your tank if you need to. I don't need to, because I store 30 gallons of gasoline in my shed in the back yard, which I rotate and empty into my gas tank every couple of months. This is my bugging out supply. With it I can easily reach Salt Lake City or Phoenix, or anyplace in between.

Food, water, stove, fuel, water filter, pots and pans, laundry detergent, gasoline, lighters and matches, fire sticks, blankets and sleeping bags, guns and ammo, these are all things everyone should store so they can at least shelter in place if forced to, or bug out if they need to.

Water is critical, and at least 100 gallons are needed, because you drink about a quart to half a gallon per day. You can dig for more, if the water table is not too deep below you. But for that you would need a pick and shovel too. And stones or bricks to line the well with. And rubber boots to wear while you dig it.

The best way to store water is with a 55 gallon plastic drum, then cover it to keep the dust and dirt off it. You can make end tables out of it for your home, or store them in your garage, either way.

During the Quake of '89 you could not bug out. The freeway overpasses cut us off in every direction. That's why sheltering in place was critical.

Last edited by hks95134; 03-09-2014 at 4:03 PM..
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Old 03-09-2014, 4:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jerhyn View Post
Exactly, and percents may not have been the best way to look at it.

I had no idea where to start when I was new. So I started with a 72 hour bag. From there... I just kept thinking... what am I prepping for...? What could have a double use, like camping equipment, recreational gear, etc.

Buying things just because, seems like a very inefficient way to prep since you don't even know what you are prepared for.
One Second After, by Forstchen, makes it fairly clear what to prep for.

Food is the main thing, with water. Everything else depends on food and water.
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Old 03-09-2014, 4:31 PM
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Originally Posted by hks95134 View Post
Everything else depends on food and water.
Except when it doesn't.

Everything depends on security. If you have food, but some people take it from you, then it's meaningless. Even if you don't have food, maybe those people will take your life.

But everything also depends on shelter. If you have pile of food, water and guns, you can still freeze to death (especially in a winter as harsh as this past one for much of the nation).

But everything also depends on your first aid kit and ability to use it. A slight cut gets badly infected, and you don't have antibiotics? All those MREs and guns and air-conditioned castles can't help you then.

But everything also depends on

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Old 03-10-2014, 8:47 AM
hks95134 hks95134 is offline
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Except when it doesn't.

Everything depends on security. If you have food, but some people take it from you, then it's meaningless. Even if you don't have food, maybe those people will take your life.

But everything also depends on shelter. If you have pile of food, water and guns, you can still freeze to death (especially in a winter as harsh as this past one for much of the nation).

But everything also depends on your first aid kit and ability to use it. A slight cut gets badly infected, and you don't have antibiotics? All those MREs and guns and air-conditioned castles can't help you then.

But everything also depends on

ETC
I'm all for prioritization, sure. I agree with you on that point.

You can start with guns and ammo if you want, sure. No problem with that. Just don't stop there.

Then add blankets and sleeping bags next, ok.

Make sure you get to food and water fairly quickly though, because whereas self defense is instantaneous, and cold will kill you in a matter of hours, you can only go a couple of days without water, and only a few weeks without food.

Of all the things I ever bought for survival, a S&W Model 39 was the first thing, and two boxes of ammo. That was a long time ago. I have since traded up to a 45ACP, a 12 gauge, a 5.56mm, and a 300 RUM, and a year's supply of ammo for each.

Lots of blankets and sleeping bags, air mattresses, tents, camping gear too.

Enough food for several months. Enough water too.

Go for it.
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  #31  
Old 03-10-2014, 9:49 AM
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The odds of any particular disaster happening are pretty low.

That lulls some people into a sense of false security because the reality is that you are not preparing against the risk of a specific one of these disasters, but rather you are preparing against the risk of ANY of them.

Confusing? This should help make it a little more real.

Take a coin out of your pocket. You know that if you flip that coin, the odds of it landing heads are 50% and the odds of tails is 50%. Not that any of our disasters are a 50% chance but bear with me and you'll see where I'm going. Now, take out another coin. If you decide to flip both coins, what happens to the odds? Some folks might say "they stay the same because each coin has just one head and one tail". They'd be wrong. The odds of getting two heads is 25% now - the odds of one head and one tail is 50% - and the odds of two tails is 75%. Your odds of avoiding a "tail" just went down to half what they were. Now lets add another coin. The next flip (all 3 coins) your odds of getting all heads (avoiding all disasters) WENT DOWN AGAIN!

You can see that the more disasters that are possible, the greater the odds of SOMETHING happening increase. Think about all the new coins we've added to the flipping roster in the past 100 years. Some of them sound unlikely and let's say for the sake of argument that this is correct, there is a very small chance of a given "disaster" happening. It still means that the grid doing down, or a nuclear plant melting down, or a huge terrorist event, or a ginormous toxic spill - the odds of any of these happening to you or to me may be comparatively LOW, but the AGGREGATE probability of SOMETHING happening is definitely large enough to be preparing for. Wildfire, earthquake, flood, mega-storm, civil unrest, economic crisis - you name it.

Eventually, something will happen and you'll be glad you thought ahead and gave yourself some protection, some options, and a bit of breathing room.
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Old 03-10-2014, 9:55 AM
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Sorry, typo above. In the 2nd coin flipping example:
25% - two heads
50% - one head, one tail
25% - two tails

Odds of flipping a tail - 50% (one each) + 25% (two tails) = 75% risk of getting any tails.
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Old 03-10-2014, 10:17 AM
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I'd say the odds of a major or almost major (6.9 magnitude or greater) earthquake hitting in or near California this week is 100%.
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Old 03-10-2014, 10:35 AM
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Zombies, as if you are prepared for Zombies, you are more prepared than like 75%(?) of the ignorant population FOR ANYTHING, and everything else is child's play...
I've been saying this for a couple years now. I don't really believe we will see "World War Z", but if you can prepare for that (although skip the "Zombie vaccine" you will be prepared for anything else.

It drives me crazy to watch shows like "Doomsday Preppers" and they show people who are convinced there will be a massive earthquake, supervolcano, massive solar flare, nuclear attack, financial crises, etc (pick one) in the near future and they have prepared for only that eventuality. If "something" happens, but it's not the specific "something" they were expecting they are toast.

I think the whole key is that an apocalyptic event is impossible to predict; if we could accurately predict it we could minimize it's effect, causing it to not be an apocalyptic event.

Also take into consideration that some things are perishable and others aren't. If you build a secure, discreet shelter first it will last your lifetime. If you start with food it will expire at some point. I also try to keep in mind things like secure shelter, food, water, weapons, & knowledge of how to live a self sufficient lifestyle will help my family survive "any" event, where hoarding gold only prepares you for an economic collapse, gas masks are (almost)worthless in any other event than nuclear/chemical, etc.
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Old 03-10-2014, 11:34 AM
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It drives me crazy to watch shows like "Doomsday Preppers" and they show people who are convinced there will be a massive earthquake, supervolcano, massive solar flare, nuclear attack, financial crises, etc (pick one) in the near future and they have prepared for only that eventuality. If "something" happens, but it's not the specific "something" they were expecting they are toast.
+1. I can't watch any of the NatGeo prepper shows either. I prep for the type of unrest that we see on the news happening here. The precipitating event is not of too much interest. The common feature, quoting Cypher from "The Matrix", will be that "Kansas is going bye bye".
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Old 03-10-2014, 11:54 AM
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You do know that doomsday preppers FORCES the preppers to pick one they are prepping for and plays on that the whole time.

Also the shows gives lines to the preppers for things to say and uses nice editing to make them seem even worse.
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Old 03-10-2014, 12:28 PM
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I'm in the northern part of the Central Valley, north of Merced and south of Stockton. When I worked in the fire service, we regularly drilled our department's response to many of these events.

Odds of these happening and odds of these affecting me are two different things. I'll just list the odds of such an event directly impacting me and mine. Since I won't hazard a guess to odds or percentages, I'll classify as improbable, low, medium, high, almost certainty.

Potential to affect me and mine:

TECHNOLOGICAL & ACCIDENTAL HAZARDS
-Blackouts: Low, long term.
-Hazardous Materials Incidents: Medium. A railway, major highway, and chem companies are all close by.
-Household Chemical Emergencies: Improbable.
-Nuclear Power Plants: Low, short term. No plants nearby or upwind.

Natural
-Drought: Almost certainty
-Earthquakes: Medium. Not on or really near a fault, but damage could occur.
-Extreme Heat: High
-Floods: Low. A river nearby flooded in 1996, but didn't affect me directly. Would have to be the 500 year flood with water >50' over flood stage.
-Home Fires: High. I live in a developed area. House fires are fairly common.
-Hurricanes: Improbable
-Landslides and Debris Flow: Improbable. No significant hills nearby, river would catch debris flows.
-Severe Weather: Improbable
-Space Weather: Medium to high
-Thunderstorms and Lightning: Improbable
-Tornadoes: Improbable to low
-Tsunamis: Improbable
-Volcanoes: Improbable. That I know of.
-Wildfires: Medium to high. There's a wildland area very closeby that's currently very dry.
-Winter Storms and Extreme Cold: Improbable

Terrorist Hazards
-Biological Threats: Improbable to low
-Chemical Threats: Improbable to low
-Cyber Attack: Large scale? Medium to high. Any attack, even far away, could have wide-ranging effects on Internet use.
-Explosions: Low
-Nuclear Blast: Improbable
-Radio-logical Dispersion Device (RDD): Improbable

There area where I live isn't what I would call a target rich environment.
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Old 03-10-2014, 1:20 PM
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Originally Posted by ChuckD View Post
I've been saying this for a couple years now. I don't really believe we will see "World War Z", but if you can prepare for that (although skip the "Zombie vaccine" you will be prepared for anything else.

It drives me crazy to watch shows like "Doomsday Preppers" and they show people who are convinced there will be a massive earthquake, supervolcano, massive solar flare, nuclear attack, financial crises, etc (pick one) in the near future and they have prepared for only that eventuality. If "something" happens, but it's not the specific "something" they were expecting they are toast...
I actually watch DDP for some of the pretty creative ideas. As many have mentioned, the people on the show are apparently required to state one-single thing they are prepping for, and so the show makes them look pretty-goofy (for the ~$200 fee they pay to tell most of their secrets to the world). I mainly watch it so see what others are doing, as I don't have time or money like some of the people on the show do. I mainly critique, and see how stupid (or smart) ideas on the show are.
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  #39  
Old 03-10-2014, 2:11 PM
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If you are anywhere near me, your odds have gone up significantly.

The deathtoll from the disasters that have happened at locations that I was at when the disasters actually happened is currently at 16,500.

Just call me Shleprock!!!
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Old 03-10-2014, 2:41 PM
Sky_God Sky_God is offline
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probability of waking up one day, an unarmed slave and taxed at a 50% plus rate is pretty much 100%, that to me is the most likely disaster to occur imho

Last edited by Sky_God; 03-10-2014 at 2:43 PM.. Reason: half of post not posted
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