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  #1  
Old 03-29-2013, 12:22 AM
DBLee DBLee is offline
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Default There is no shortage...

I'm all for capitalism and the right of sellers to do as they please. However, we as buyers can also do as we please. This guy is right. There is no ammo shortage. All you have to do to see that is go to gunbroker or even the ammo forums on calguns and you'll see that there is PLENTY of ammo available. Hell, even my local gun store is fully stocked now. The only thing, obviously is that it's overpriced.

So if there is no ammo shortage, then where is it going? It's going to a new tier of reseller that has sprung up due to the temporary spike in demand. They are the ones with the time and the initiative to be at Walmart at 6am every morning. These people can only exist because we-the-consumer- have given up the use of our faculties and stopped making rational buying decisions.

THERE IS JUST AS MUCH AMMO AS BEFORE. IT IS JUST NOW ON THE SECOND HAND MARKET. Be a rational consumer-- why buy something now when you can wait a week or a month and it will be cheaper? If you must buy it now, then why not do a little bargain hunting and help drive prices downward?

Just because prices are high and there is high demand doesn't mean you should stop bargain hunting. Use your melon and don't pay more than you want to for ammo. Prices will drop accordingly in a few months.


Last edited by DBLee; 03-29-2013 at 12:28 AM..
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  #2  
Old 03-29-2013, 12:47 AM
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  #3  
Old 03-29-2013, 12:49 AM
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Christ, did you even read what I said? I'm not railing against profiteering or freedom of enterprise. I'm saying that for capitalism to function properly, we need to be rational consumers.


Glad you got an opportunity to post that jpg you've been saving.
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Old 03-29-2013, 12:51 AM
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Ever considered that when prices rise above a certain point, people become willing to part with some of their stockpile? That's what takes the pressure off of shops for a while (unless the shortage gets really prolonged)...
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Old 03-29-2013, 4:34 AM
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Sorry buddy but "shortage" doesn't mean "less supply than we had before," it means "less supply than demand." So yes, we do have a shortage since demand has increased more than supply has increased.
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Old 03-29-2013, 5:06 AM
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All the "greed is good" Laissez-fairies should see that video. It shows how selfishness (objectivism) ain't all it's cracked up to be.
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Old 03-29-2013, 5:28 AM
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I agree and have two things to say on this...

1) Diamond is a very common formation. DeBeers corp was started by hanging a soup can suspended on a string around Native Africans necks. Then telling them to walk around and pick up the shiny white rocks on the ground. DeBeers controls the Diamond market by releasing a controlled amount, which is just under the demand for their product.

2) A friend who works at Fiocchi has been working 12 hour days, 6 days a week for several months now to meet the companies back orders. The company ships daily to the Distributors.

So where is all the ammo going?

There are two ways to control a market.. Hording and Limiting.
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Old 03-29-2013, 5:47 AM
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The ammo and gun markets vary by state and locale.

The availability of ammo in Sacramento, California won't be the same as Tyler, Texas.

There's also the legislative aspect to consider. Someone in the United States only has to worry about the Federal government, and so far that monster is being contained. For those unfortunates living in American Socialism states, the shortages will continue until the anti-gun nonsense either gets struck down or becomes law.
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  #9  
Old 03-29-2013, 5:53 AM
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If every gun store, pawn shop, and Walmart in my town has no ammo on the shelf, I call that a shortage.
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  #10  
Old 03-29-2013, 6:01 AM
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I am out of .22 LR, .223, .308, 9mm, .40 S&W, .38 Special, and .45 ACP. Yet some guy on the Internet says there is plenty.
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  #11  
Old 03-29-2013, 6:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dieselpower View Post
I agree and have two things to say on this...

1) Diamond is a very common formation. DeBeers corp was started by hanging a soup can suspended on a string around Native Africans necks. Then telling them to walk around and pick up the shiny white rocks on the ground. DeBeers controls the Diamond market by releasing a controlled amount, which is just under the demand for their product.
2) A friend who works at Fiocchi has been working 12 hour days, 6 days a week for several months now to meet the companies back orders. The company ships daily to the Distributors.

So where is all the ammo going?

There are two ways to control a market.. Hording and Limiting.
One thing omitted in the above. DeBeers colludes with powerful friends in government(s) and business to deter (eliminate) their competition.
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  #12  
Old 03-29-2013, 6:14 AM
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Originally Posted by Gem1950 View Post
All the "greed is good" Laissez-fairies should see that video. It shows how selfishness (objectivism) ain't all it's cracked up to be.
Except NONE of this would be happening if uncle govy wasn't making noise about banning firearms or limiting ammo sales etc. We're pretty f'in far from "hands off".
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Old 03-29-2013, 6:16 AM
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Originally Posted by therealnickb View Post
Except NONE of this would be happening if uncle govy wasn't making noise about banning firearms or limiting ammo sales etc. We're pretty f'in far from "hands off".
I find it ironic that the very people wailing about "price gouging" are the ones who picked the government which triggered the shortage to begin with.
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  #14  
Old 03-29-2013, 6:18 AM
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Well written and good assessment of the current situation DBLEE. I would volunteer that this thing, the ammo shortage and high prices, has taken on a life of its own due to what you have pointed out. Large quantities of affordable ammo is making its way into the secondary market (aka black marketers, remarketers, middlemen, profiteers - whatever you want to call them) and being marked up.

What truly was a genuine "run on ammo" due to fear of pending gun/ammo legislation, has now morphed into, for the most part, profiteering. It'll come back down again but it's been prolong by money making.

Not judging anyone who is exploiting the current environment to make a little more money for themselves, and their family, but just calling out what I think we see as the enablers of this on-going saga. This is my humble opinion as well.
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  #15  
Old 03-29-2013, 6:22 AM
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The shop I work at part time STILL cannot get any kind of .223/5.56 or 9mm, .40 anything. .45 is slightly available, but only higher end self defense type, no ball ammo to speak of, and .22 is scarse as can be now too. Some of the oddball stuff is available, but then, its oddball stuff, so who cares.
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Old 03-29-2013, 6:36 AM
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Some of the oddball stuff is available, but then, its oddball stuff, so who cares.
Perfect excuse to buy some oddball guns.
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  #17  
Old 03-29-2013, 6:39 AM
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Originally Posted by SilverTauron View Post
I find it ironic that the very people wailing about "price gouging" are the ones who picked the government which triggered the shortage to begin with.
Ironic is the correct word indeed.
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Old 03-29-2013, 6:43 AM
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I AGREE..LAST GUN SHOW MOST DEALERS HAD ALOT OF INVENTORY ON AMMO & MAGS BUT NOBODY WAS BUYING ..AND THOSE DEALERS LOOK WORRIED AND PISTOFF ...AS FOR THE WALMART CROWD OF AMMO SCAVENGERS ..THEY CAN KISS MY *SS !!I PLANNED AHEAD..
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  #19  
Old 03-29-2013, 10:29 AM
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Cabela's in Sidney, Nebraska is well stocked. I just stopped by on my way home from a business trip and they have 762 NATO 50 rd boxes for $40. Tons of cci mini mags 100 rd for $9 but only allowed to buy one box...LOL. They also have handguns galore. Wished I lived out here. They also have all the ar 30rd mags you want. So if your in the neighborhood stop by
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Old 03-29-2013, 11:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Stewdabaker23 View Post
Cabela's in Sidney, Nebraska is well stocked. I just stopped by on my way home from a business trip and they have 762 NATO 50 rd boxes for $40. Tons of cci mini mags 100 rd for $9 but only allowed to buy one box...LOL. They also have handguns galore. Wished I lived out here. They also have all the ar 30rd mags you want. So if your in the neighborhood stop by
Now I need to go see Carhenge again!
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  #21  
Old 03-29-2013, 11:50 AM
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So let me ask this...

If you owned something (certain car, house, etc), and the market was currently commanding a much higher than normal price for that item, would you sell it for less?

Would it matter what the reason was? Silly consumers? Other?

I personally haven't bought anything hat is priced higher than normal during this panic. I don't waste my money and I am not influenced by "panic". But, for those folks who are so easily manipulated, well, if they willing choose to pay, then the seller would be a fool to take less.
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Old 03-29-2013, 11:52 AM
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  #23  
Old 03-29-2013, 12:22 PM
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Domestic ammo production - 22, pistol, rifle, shotshell - is around 10 billion rounds a year. With 320 million people in this country, that comes out to 30 rounds per person. Now, obviously everyone in the country isn't active in the shooting sports...but OTOH, the guy that shoots 100 clays every two weeks will use 2600 shells/yr, or about "90 persons worth of ammo." Similarly, the gun that shoots 250/rnds of handgun a month will use 3 cases/yr, or "100 persons worth".

If 1% of Americans suddenly decide that they need to buy a case of ammo that they wouldn't otherwise have bought, that's 3.2 billion rounds of new demand.

The annual production of AR pattern rifles is about 500,000/yr. ( Excluding lowers. ) If 1 percent of people in this country suddenly want to buy an AR that they would not have otherwise have purchased, you then have around 3 million people chasing 500,000 rifles...and prices rise accordingly.

The conclusion: it doesn't take much for demand to outstrip supply in the firearms sector, and most companies don't have the ability to radically ramp up production to meet a temporary surge.

-- Michael
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  #24  
Old 03-29-2013, 12:47 PM
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IMHO, most of the run on ammo supplies (and all products related to firearms) is caused by those who did not plan ahead. Those who bought a box or two at the range before the threat of laws that limit the amount that one can buy, and the possibility that taxes may go sky high on an already consumable supply are the problem.

They are now stocking up (like many did before the panic, when prices were reasonable) and causing those of us who have our own, but buy a few boxes at the range to keep our stock, to use up what we have. Thus the price continues to stay at the higher levels, generating more in sales tax, more in income for the firearms/ammo companies and thus more taxes for the the government.

It's all about power to control the people through the control of tax dollars. Think about it. Sales of all products related to firearms have increased dramatically. As have prices, and that taxation is now funding the same people (read politicians) who want to take away our rights and control "inferior sheeple". In order to further their own political and personal agendas.
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Old 03-29-2013, 1:59 PM
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You can't fix stupid.

If people ar stupid enough to pay high prices for ammunition who are we to tell them that they shouldn't.
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Old 03-29-2013, 2:04 PM
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Honestly it has just gotten ridiculous...not to mention expensive...And sorry to say it but I think there is a shortage...Even at guns shows it runs out in a matter of minutes.
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Old 03-29-2013, 2:11 PM
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Originally Posted by SilverTauron View Post
I find it ironic that the very people wailing about "price gouging" are the ones who picked the government which triggered the shortage to begin with.
Precisely. Neither I nor anyone in my circle of friends are experiencing any of the problems related by many here. But then, we didn't try to fool ourselves as to the true nature and/or intent of TPTB.
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Old 03-29-2013, 5:44 PM
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100% agree.
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Old 03-29-2013, 8:03 PM
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Originally Posted by DBLee View Post
Christ, did you even read what I said? I'm not railing against profiteering or freedom of enterprise. I'm saying that for capitalism to function properly, we need to be rational consumers.


Glad you got an opportunity to post that jpg you've been saving.
Yes, I read what you wrote and it is a very cool story, bro. On the seriousness, there is no such thing as "rational consumers". It is not every possible for a general mass to be "rational" during the time of chaos.
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Old 03-29-2013, 8:20 PM
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Yes, I read what you wrote and it is a very cool story, bro. On the seriousness, there is no such thing as "rational consumers". It is not every possible for a general mass to be "rational" during the time of chaos.
What about all the "rational" non consumers? Isn't it possible that most of the general "mass" of people who are not buying at this moment represent tha majority?
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Old 03-30-2013, 6:31 PM
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I find it ironic that the very people wailing about "price gouging" are the ones who picked the government which triggered the shortage to begin with.
^ ^ ^ The people you are referring to all voted for Obama? Hmmm
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Old 03-30-2013, 7:58 PM
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Marked up ammo is selling out in minutes on retail websites, dont think those are resellers buying that.
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Old 03-30-2013, 9:58 PM
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^ ^ ^ The people you are referring to all voted for Obama? Hmmm
Mmm mmm mmm Barak Husain Obama......
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  #34  
Old 04-05-2013, 8:34 PM
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Originally Posted by tenpercentfirearms View Post
I am out of .22 LR, .223, .308, 9mm, .40 S&W, .38 Special, and .45 ACP. Yet some guy on the Internet says there is plenty.
There is plenty. It's not on your store shelves, it's not in Walmart. People bought it all, and are certainly not shooting it. They are selling it on the secondhand market, which is flooded with overpriced ammo. I'm saying a third distribution layer has appeared in the midst of this panic. If we want this to end, we have to put them out of business by refusing to purchase at prices we are not willing to pay.
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Old 04-05-2013, 8:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Fjold View Post
You can't fix stupid.

If people ar stupid enough to pay high prices for ammunition who are we to tell them that they shouldn't.
I suppose you're right. I haven't paid more than 50 cents/round for .223 or 35 cents/ round for .40 since this whole thing started. I still have plenty of ammo, and I'm still buying... I just use my noggin and don't pull out the wallet every time I see buck per round ammo.

I'm still shooting, and I feel like I am doing my own small part to bring down prices, or at least not contribute to their inflation.
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Old 04-05-2013, 8:41 PM
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Originally Posted by TonyNorCal View Post
So let me ask this...

If you owned something (certain car, house, etc), and the market was currently commanding a much higher than normal price for that item, would you sell it for less?

Would it matter what the reason was? Silly consumers? Other?

I personally haven't bought anything hat is priced higher than normal during this panic. I don't waste my money and I am not influenced by "panic". But, for those folks who are so easily manipulated, well, if they willing choose to pay, then the seller would be a fool to take less.
I would never ask anyone to sell anything for less than market value. I'm exhorting consumers to use their brains and not buy for what they consider higher than market value.

I follow your course of action and I do not buy anything that is priced too much above normal, so as not to contribute to the problem, or to advance my poverty.
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Old 04-05-2013, 8:44 PM
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Originally Posted by kdruff2 View Post
Well written and good assessment of the current situation DBLEE. I would volunteer that this thing, the ammo shortage and high prices, has taken on a life of its own due to what you have pointed out. Large quantities of affordable ammo is making its way into the secondary market (aka black marketers, remarketers, middlemen, profiteers - whatever you want to call them) and being marked up.

What truly was a genuine "run on ammo" due to fear of pending gun/ammo legislation, has now morphed into, for the most part, profiteering. It'll come back down again but it's been prolong by money making.

Not judging anyone who is exploiting the current environment to make a little more money for themselves, and their family, but just calling out what I think we see as the enablers of this on-going saga. This is my humble opinion as well.
Thank you! I feel better that not everyone thinks I am a commie price-fixing socialist whining about gouging. I'm pointing out that the physical shortage is over, and we are experiencing the effects of a "grey market" that has been brough about by government restriction (or the threat thereof).
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Old 04-06-2013, 7:03 AM
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Get used to it people - it's called a Black Market. Third world here we come!
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Old 04-06-2013, 9:19 AM
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The OP is completely wrong. There is a massive demand on an only slightly increased production of ammo. Going from 16 hours to 24 hours of production is only a 50% increase in production minus any down time for equipment maintenance.

I am a master dealer at 9 distributors. In the last 5 months I have received less than a pallet of various calibers. That is due to all the ammo sellers (retail, not secondary). At just one distributor I am 1 account for a salesman that has 60 accounts. He is one salesman of about 50.

I have gone directly to some of the smaller ammo manufacturers and offered to buy truckloads of the popular calibers per month if they would deal directly with me. They all are willing to do it but they do not have the capacity nor the components.

I have gone to the large importers and offered to piggyback on their orders. Places like ammoman and such. They can't do it because they do not get enough product.

My next step is to fly directly to some of the larger foreign manufacturers and negotiate deals to steer ammo my way. My best shot is with Armscor because I have connections there in P.I.

Right now retailers other than Walmart, cabela's, Midway, etc are raising prices because they will run out of stock prior to the next shipment. They have to keep employees busy or lay them off.

The smaller shops like LGS are barely surviving. I get calls all day from gun dealers begging for ammo they can resell. I just shipped out 20,000 rounds of .22lr to a shop in Kentucky that gets 90% of its revenue from its gun range. The range is at 10% utilization now. They are begging me for more calibers.

I do not see the shortage going away until next summer at the earliest. I base the shortage as being over when my distributors call me to sell me ammo and I tell them I have enough in stock. Same thing with guns.
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Old 04-06-2013, 9:46 AM
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colossians323 colossians323 is offline
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I am out of .22 LR, .223, .308, 9mm, .40 S&W, .38 Special, and .45 ACP. Yet some guy on the Internet says there is plenty.
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