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National 2nd Amend. Political & Legal Discussion Discuss national gun rights and 2A related political topics here. All advice given is NOT legal counsel.

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  #761  
Old 08-19-2019, 7:54 PM
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This will be interesting to see. Last video of her I saw she sounded pretty sharp for an 86 year old woman although pretty frail.
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  #762  
Old 08-19-2019, 10:04 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wireless View Post
This will be interesting to see. Last video of her I saw she sounded pretty sharp for an 86 year old woman although pretty frail.
Rumor has it her animatronics were recently updated. She's doing well for all we can tell. Expect her to make it through Trump's first term to 2021 (absent an unforseen fall or stroke)
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  #763  
Old 08-23-2019, 4:56 PM
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The possible vacancy at SCOTUS and possible replacements are on topic here.

Details of RBG's health are off topic for this thread - please use http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/s....php?t=1554434

36 posts moved, a couple deleted.
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  #764  
Old 08-23-2019, 5:12 PM
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So can we start a betting pool on how long the vacancy would remain vacant, and side bets on what crazy smears will come out to derail the process?

Also, while I’d never endorse a Deadpool; can we get a vacancypool of SCOTUS going?

I’ll start. I believe Amy Coney Barrett is pre-vetted basically for RBG’s seat.

I think her Haitian adopted children is a wildcard for what effect it will have- left uncovering uncouth things with it; the right/Ann Coulter May lead a rearguard action to stop her from attaining the seat. Not sure how it will go, but I’m will king to stake a small sidebet that becomes an issue for some side if/when there is an RBG vacancy.
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  #765  
Old 08-23-2019, 6:25 PM
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We might have two vacancies. Ginsburg for sure is leaving soon whether she wants to or not. She has done a lot for women's rights and is a hero with over 50% of the population. Her stance on guns is ultra radical however.

Thomas is a friend of the 2nd but he's no spring chicken either. He might call it quits now to allow trump to replace him with someone not so radicalized like kagan and rbg.

Of course trump could be re-elected because there's no one to run against him with American values. It's a tricky one to call. He couid also cause a recession from his trade policies and get run out of office.
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  #766  
Old 08-23-2019, 6:29 PM
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Originally Posted by bubbapug1 View Post
We might have two vacancies. Ginsburg for sure us leaving soon. She has does done a lot for women's rights and is a hero with over 50% of the population. Her stance on guns is ultra radical however.

Thomas is a friend of the 2nd but he's no spring chicken either. He might call it quits now to allow trump to replace him with someone not so radicalized like kagan and rbg.

Of course trump could be re-elected because there's no one to run against him with American values.
I think Thomas shut down such rumors. Frankly I think Thomas wants to actually step up these days I think, and sees an opportunity to fight with the gloves off these days- something he’s been ready and willing to do since seated, but was never timely until now.
Now remember that Breyer is barely younger than Ginsburg...

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...rs/1336998001/
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  #767  
Old 08-24-2019, 8:17 AM
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Ruth just had another cancerous tumor removed from her pancreas. She has had pancreatic, lung cancer and a couple other spots. It's spread all over her body now.

I'll leave it to the medical experts here to say how long she has.
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  #768  
Old 08-24-2019, 10:22 AM
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^^^^^^^ Librarian... Doesn't it make you crazy. Only four posts after yours.
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  #769  
Old 08-25-2019, 7:05 AM
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Anyone have any thoughts on how RBG's new medical condition could affect outcomes for cases on this fall's calendar?

The NY rifle case comes immediately to mind here. If it's split along ideological lines, RBG is the key. Without her, and assuming Roberts swings Left on guns (because status quo is always the option for those looking for the easy way out), it's 4/4. which means the lower court ruling stands.
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  #770  
Old 08-25-2019, 9:08 AM
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Anyone have any thoughts on how RBG's new medical condition could affect outcomes for cases on this fall's calendar?

The NY rifle case comes immediately to mind here. If it's split along ideological lines, RBG is the key. Without her, and assuming Roberts swings Left on guns (because status quo is always the option for those looking for the easy way out), it's 4/4. which means the lower court ruling stands.
My guess is NYSRPA won't be heard, if at all, until after the New Year. Same with the rest of the 2nd A cases, if any are granted cert. Oct & Nov's calendars have been posted for weeks. I don't see them holding off on the Dec calendar until after Oct 1st, when they discuss in conference NYSRPA mootness issue. My hope is RBG will be off of the Court by Jan 01. I further assume that if they take it, it will be heard in Jan.

IMO, to uphold the legitimacy of the Court by moderating cultural "swings" (funny how they didn't care about that with Roe or homo marriage), and to show to Trump that he meant business when he said there are no Repub or Dem judges, Roberts will swing left on this case. So, Roberts joins Breyer, Sotomayor and Kagan.

The real issue is will RBG leave in time for a new justice to be nominated, confirmed and seated to hear the case? If not, I could see a 4 to 4 or, almost as likely, a 5 to 3 decision that disposes of the case, but is not groundbreaking -- something narrow and/or wimpy. They'll leave it to a full Court dealing with subsequent 2nd A cases to flesh it out (again, compare that to abortion or decriminalization and full homosexual marriage equality in one fell swoop). Frankly, Roberts could go left and pretty much stay there to "balance" the Court and -- as those Senate Dems threatened packing -- for the "health", I think they said, of the Court. (Remember, after FDR's threat to pack the Court, which Congress shot down, several Repub justices retired so he could replace constitutionalists with "living, breathing" types. And so, FDR won and got his New Deal after all.) Even when in the majority, Roberts might act like Kennedy with Scalia in Heller, insisting on moderating language in the opinions (vs any type of gun in any manner of carry anywhere etc.).

That's what happens when dealing with a fundamental, enumerated Right that is deemed by the PTB as politically incorrect and disfavored....
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  #771  
Old 08-26-2019, 1:49 PM
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My guess is NYSRPA won't be heard, if at all, until after the New Year. Same with the rest of the 2nd A cases, if any are granted cert. Oct & Nov's calendars have been posted for weeks. I don't see them holding off on the Dec calendar until after Oct 1st, when they discuss in conference NYSRPA mootness issue. My hope is RBG will be off of the Court by Jan 01. I further assume that if they take it, it will be heard in Jan.

IMO, to uphold the legitimacy of the Court by moderating cultural "swings" (funny how they didn't care about that with Roe or homo marriage), and to show to Trump that he meant business when he said there are no Repub or Dem judges, Roberts will swing left on this case. So, Roberts joins Breyer, Sotomayor and Kagan.

The real issue is will RBG leave in time for a new justice to be nominated, confirmed and seated to hear the case? If not, I could see a 4 to 4 or, almost as likely, a 5 to 3 decision that disposes of the case, but is not groundbreaking -- something narrow and/or wimpy. They'll leave it to a full Court dealing with subsequent 2nd A cases to flesh it out (again, compare that to abortion or decriminalization and full homosexual marriage equality in one fell swoop). Frankly, Roberts could go left and pretty much stay there to "balance" the Court and -- as those Senate Dems threatened packing -- for the "health", I think they said, of the Court. (Remember, after FDR's threat to pack the Court, which Congress shot down, several Repub justices retired so he could replace constitutionalists with "living, breathing" types. And so, FDR won and got his New Deal after all.) Even when in the majority, Roberts might act like Kennedy with Scalia in Heller, insisting on moderating language in the opinions (vs any type of gun in any manner of carry anywhere etc.).

That's what happens when dealing with a fundamental, enumerated Right that is deemed by the PTB as politically incorrect and disfavored....
The calendaring becomes problematic.

If RBG isn't with us any longer when the mootness conference occurs, then there may not be enough votes to moot the case.

Yet, if she hangs on until just before then, there won't be enough time to get a new justice confirmed AND have that justice brought up to speed even if NYC is heard in January. And, from reports that she's up and moving under her own steam, it looks likely that she'll hang on until at least Oct.

That makes the possible outcome 4/4 if Roberts sides with the liberal side of the Court "out of fairness". Which doesn't help us at all.

If RBG makes it to Jan, then the outcome is still up in the air depending on Roberts being wishy-washy or bowing to the reality that if he doesn't side with the Conservatives, there's going to be a lot of hell raised in the streets that could easily lead to him being the first SCOTUS Chief Justice to be impeached and removed from office.
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  #772  
Old 08-26-2019, 1:57 PM
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I don't understand why we keep circling back around to the "Roberts is going to vote against" or "they wont hear it" talking points. It has already been repeatedly pointed out here (and written in multiple articles that are both conservative and liberal) that the conservatives would only vote for cert if they knew they had the votes for at least a watered down ruling in favor of gun rights, as well as the fact that they would not bother to vote for cert on an issue as narrow as this unless they wanted to use it to address a wider issue. None of that has changed, and I do not see any reason to think they will moot the case, or continue cert and then uphold the NY law.

Maybe people are referring to Roberts jumping ship as the "worst case" but that is not the way it comes across in your posts.

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  #773  
Old 08-26-2019, 2:28 PM
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I don't understand why we keep circling back around to the "Roberts is going to vote against" or "they wont hear it" talking points. It has already been repeatedly pointed out here (and written in multiple articles that are both conservative and liberal) that the conservatives would only vote for cert if they knew they had the votes for at least a watered down ruling in favor of gun rights, as well as the fact that they would not bother to vote for cert on an issue as narrow as this unless they wanted to use it to address a wider issue. None of that has changed, and I do not see any reason to think they will moot the case, or continue cert and then uphold the NY law.

Maybe people are referring to Roberts jumping ship as the "worst case" but that is not the way it comes across in your posts.
The point is not that Roberts is a decided and dyed in the wool enemy-

It’s that he changed his mind on the Obamacare/ACA case.

Initially he voted to strike it down, so would have been among the votes agreeing to hear the case; but then got cold feet and switched his vote.

That’s what the concern is: he’s already voted to hear a strongly partisan case to give the right a victory, then at the last minute stabbed the side he voted for cert with in the back.
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  #774  
Old 08-26-2019, 5:04 PM
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And he just nuked citizenship question on census. To cater to open border Bolsheviks. **** Roberts.
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  #775  
Old 08-27-2019, 2:10 PM
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Let me be clear that I don't think Roberts has been right all the time, and I don't think he is God's gift to the judiciary. That said, your post is an inaccurate summary of Sebelius, and a bad comparison to NYSRP.

We do not know who voted for cert in Sebelius; but it is likely that both liberals AND conservatives voted in favor of cert:

The appeals court sustained overturning the individual mandate, but left in place the rest of the law. So there were reasons for both sides to want to review this case.... the conservatives, to invalidate the entire law, the liberals, to sustain the individual mandate. We have no idea who asked for cert, or why. Unlike NYSRP, Sebelius had a broad draw to both sides of the bench. There is no reason for someone to cert NYSRP unless they want to broaden gun rights. If there was a clear lack of support for a ruling, then cert would be ignored like all the other cases we have seen over the years.

People made assumptions that as a conservative, Roberts would vote that way on Sebelius, but there is no evidence I can find anywhere that Roberts expressed agreement with the conservative wing and then later "changed his mind." That is all speculation. There is no evidence to support the idea that when cert was voted for, any of the justices knew what the outcome would be, because it was likely a bipartisan cert. Sebelius was NOT a cut and dried, narrow niche case. It was a huge, broad beast.

The census question is also not a good comparison; however you may feel about whether the question SHOULD be on the census, the Gov't case was abysmal.

To get back to NYSRP: The fact that after a decade of denials, we finally get votes for cert, AND multiple pending cert requests, some of which are only tertiarily connected to this case being placed on hold for NYSRP, strongly suggests that 5 votes are present, and the result will be a ruling that affects the right to own guns in a broad manner. After all this time, why would Alito and Thomas gamble cert without knowing Roberts' position? It just doesn't make sense.

Argue all you want that he may water down the ruling, but I just don't see him "changing sides," and I certainly do not see a need to be so morbidly certain about this case being DOA.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lowimpactuser View Post
The point is not that Roberts is a decided and dyed in the wool enemy-

It’s that he changed his mind on the Obamacare/ACA case.

Initially he voted to strike it down, so would have been among the votes agreeing to hear the case; but then got cold feet and switched his vote.

That’s what the concern is: he’s already voted to hear a strongly partisan case to give the right a victory, then at the last minute stabbed the side he voted for cert with in the back.

Last edited by mit31; 08-27-2019 at 2:23 PM..
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  #776  
Old 08-27-2019, 6:55 PM
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Government census case was good enough for four actually constitutional judges to support it. Roberts is a weasel and a problem.
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  #777  
Old 08-27-2019, 7:42 PM
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ROBERTS makes one vote on Obamacare and he's now a liberal?

I don't think so.
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  #778  
Old 08-27-2019, 8:02 PM
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It is the other way around. He is a liberal and makes a vote on Obamacare and census.
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  #779  
Old 08-27-2019, 8:28 PM
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How did he vote in Heller? With Ginsberg?
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  #780  
Old 08-29-2019, 4:58 AM
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Roberts visited Epstein's Island twice before the Obama care vote. I wonder if they may have influenced his decision?
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  #781  
Old 08-29-2019, 7:02 AM
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Roberts visited Epstein's Island twice before the Obama care vote. I wonder if they may have influenced his decision?
Link?
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  #782  
Old 08-29-2019, 8:41 AM
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My opinion - based on MANY things I have read, not just one or two - is that Justice Roberts has skeletons in the closet and that leads unreliability and difficulty in rendering decisions based SOLELY on sound legal logic and world-class jurisprudence. Given that he seems to have continuing issues in this area I would love to see him resign "for personal reasons" and clear the way for someone unencumbered by such hindrances.

On the contrary, Justice Ginsberg has struck me as someone profoundly loyal to her principles and beliefs, even though I disagree with her on many counts. She did a lot of good for many causes back in the day, which endeared her to many, but in my humble opinion the need for her particular take on things has passed. With her health in rapid and obvious decline, she should set about making a graceful exit - however, I don't expect her to resign, she will try to hold out until after the election in 2020. Will she make it? That's anyone's guess but two recurrences of cancer in the past 12 months, after having had it twice before previously, does not bode well for longevity.

Justice Thomas is arguably next in line behind Ginsburg for health vulnerability, but he's clearly stated his intention to die on the bench and I see no reason to question his assertion. Strategically it would be beneficial long-term for him to resign during the current presidential term but a good judge tries to distance themselves as much as possible from making politically-minded decisions and I think Justice Thomas is just this type of person. It's a pity, I wish we could clone him and keep someone just like him on the bench forever.
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Old 08-29-2019, 10:39 AM
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. . . for him to resign during the current presidential term but a good judge tries to distance themselves as much as possible from making politically-minded decisions . . .
Actually, I was under the impression that reciprocity for being nominated requires retiring or otherwise voluntarily leaving the bench under a president of the same party that appointed you.

Am I wrong?
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Old 09-18-2019, 9:33 AM
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I read this and thought it might be why RBG will try to hang on, at least until 2020 Jan 01.

Quote:
The prospect of McConnell filling the seat during an election cycle fills some Republicans with trepidation, opening the party to cries of hypocrisy from the left, who will already be mobilized given Ginsburg’s icon-status and groundbreaking role in codifying equal protections for women. “It is hard to imagine anything tougher than [Kavanaugh’s contentious nomination],” said a former Republican judiciary committee aide. “But filling a Ginsburg seat with a Trump appointee close to an election with everyone screaming [about] Merrick Garland [could be close].”
https://time.com/5663752/ruth-bader-...se-nomination/

She's fighting for preserving her liberal imprint on the Court. If she could stop Trump from replacing her, and give that opportunity to whoever wins in Nov, that at least gives her the chance it won't be Trump and might be a Dem -- both "wins" in her mind. (Remember how she said something like she'd retire to NZ if Trump won?)
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  #785  
Old 09-18-2019, 10:53 AM
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lol...I predict, if the opportunity to nominate another judge comes up during his term, said judge (if male) will have somebody come out of the woodwork and accuse him of sexual misconduct, might even go as far back to 6th grade.
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Old 09-18-2019, 11:31 AM
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She would have to hang on until 2024 for it to be a comparable situation to 2016 (lame duck president)
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Old 09-18-2019, 11:41 AM
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lol...I predict, if the opportunity to nominate another judge comes up during his term, said judge (if male) will have somebody come out of the woodwork and accuse him of sexual misconduct, might even go as far back to 6th grade.
I'm sure that CNN/MSNBC/Fredo already have the list of victims ready to go, with very specific acts committed, covering every possible potential candidate.
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Old 09-18-2019, 5:25 PM
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She would have to hang on until 2024 for it to be a comparable situation to 2016 (lame duck president)
She is clearly a witch.
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Old 09-18-2019, 7:31 PM
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What if President Trump wins reelection in 2020 but somehow looses control of the Senate. If he gets to replace RBG under those conditions- what kind of judge would we get that President Trump could nominate that an adversarial Dem Senate would ever confirm?
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Old 09-18-2019, 8:32 PM
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We are more likely to lose presidency than Senate
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Old 09-19-2019, 8:15 AM
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What if President Trump wins reelection in 2020 but somehow looses control of the Senate. If he gets to replace RBG under those conditions- what kind of judge would we get that President Trump could nominate that an adversarial Dem Senate would ever confirm?
Why would one care? If RBG's seat remains vacant, we will have the same number of conservative seats, they have one less liberal. What am I missing?
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Old 09-19-2019, 12:04 PM
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Why would one care? If RBG's seat remains vacant, we will have the same number of conservative seats, they have one less liberal. What am I missing?
I doubt that would happen.
1. That would leave 8 justices. This leaves the possibility for tie decisions. Nobody likes that. We like final decisions- or at least the illusion of one.
2. The chance for a President to appoint a SCOTUS judge is not one that comes along all that often. I think Mr T would hold his nose and appoint someone that will get through just as any other President in this difficult situation would.
3. If President Trump refused to fill the vacancy(s)- someone else will sooner or latter.
Also remember RBG is the one we're all watching but there are several judges on the bench that could go down for any number of reasons at any time. I just don't see leaving vacancies if the Senate goes Dem someday as a viable option. I just hope Mr T wins and the Senate stays Repub. I'm pretty happy with what he's done with the Federal courts.
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Old 09-19-2019, 12:09 PM
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Why would one care? If RBG's seat remains vacant, we will have the same number of conservative seats, they have one less liberal. What am I missing?
The future. That's what you are missing. If the next President appoints a justice who believes in a living constitution, then the promise of a court with 6 originalists is diminished.
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Old 09-20-2019, 10:21 PM
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Default RBG on why she didn't retire during O's 2nd term

Pure politics.

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“It has been suggested by more than one commentator, including some law professors, that I should have stepped down during President Obama’s second term,” said Ginsburg, 86, as reported by CNBC. “When that suggestion is made, I ask the question: Who do you think that the President could nominate that could get through the Republican Senate? ‘Who you would prefer on the court [rather] than me?”
More at: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ru...rm-2019-09-19?
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Old 09-20-2019, 10:34 PM
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“It has been suggested by more than one commentator, including some law professors, that I should have stepped down during President Obama’s second term,” said Ginsburg, 86, as reported by CNBC. “When that suggestion is made, I ask the question: Who do you think that the President could nominate that could get through the Republican Senate? ‘Who you would prefer on the court [rather] than me?”
I find it interesting g that she believes the Republicans would behave like the democrats do. The republicans would have confirmed whomever Obama nominated as long as she didn't wait until the last year of his term.
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Old 09-20-2019, 11:32 PM
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That can’t be true Paladin! The democrats have to have principles and not just be obsessed with power, otherwise they are just seditious traitors that should have been given the ultimate punishment for treason back in the 1960s! And that would mean republicans have been useless idiots fighting a war they refuse to fight so it’s just been one slow slide into dystopian hell. And one that certainly shouldn’t lead to us wishing death on these seditious liars. That would be a complete misreading of the situation. We should always lead with our principles and follow the example of Socrates or Louis XVI or Charles I or Nicholas II.

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I find it interesting g that she believes the Republicans would behave like the democrats do. The republicans would have confirmed whomever Obama nominated as long as she didn't wait until the last year of his term.
Democrats project what they would do or what a worst case scenario for them would be- same thing. Then, when republicans do nothing useful, they can do what they would do. After all, we’ve seen the strong moral principles come out now that the right might have increased presence with SCOTUS immediately answered by schemes to pack the court and threats by sitting senators to the court. It’s a conspiracy theory to say democrats won’t abide by republican control of courts.
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Old 10-06-2019, 3:48 PM
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A public RBG sighting:

On Oct. 4 RBG visited the Kazakh crafts exhibit at the Smithsonian National Buildings Museum.

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File Type: jpg rbg.jpg (89.8 KB, 217 views)
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Old 10-06-2019, 3:54 PM
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Is it just me or do the body guards appear to be watching RBG, and not watching the crowd ? I guess maybe they aren't worried about attackers, and more worried about something else ?
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Old 10-06-2019, 4:27 PM
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Is it just me or do the body guards appear to be watching RBG, and not watching the crowd ? I guess maybe they aren't worried about attackers, and more worried about something else ?
I‘ve fallen and can’t get up! ~RBG
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Old 10-06-2019, 6:48 PM
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Is it just me or do the body guards appear to be watching RBG, and not watching the crowd ? I guess maybe they aren't worried about attackers, and more worried about something else ?
They aren't carrying any weapons. One is packing a defibrillator and the other an oxygen mask.
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