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Survival and Preparations Long and short term survival and 'prepping'.

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  #4001  
Old 02-09-2016, 7:38 AM
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therealnickb therealnickb is offline
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Originally Posted by Frozenguy View Post
As much as he may have been wrong before, he wasn't wrong this time.

You arguing over a few days is not the way to go about expressing your feelings on his other predictions.

He got this one right, for all intents and purposes.

Look at the graph, gold has been wanting to burst past 1200 but something is dumping a ton of energy/$$ into keeping it sub $1200.
I have a clock in my kitchen with no batteries. It's right once a day and once a night which is a much better track record than out resident liar.

"Something" may be the little common sense left floating around in our DNA.
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  #4002  
Old 02-09-2016, 7:44 AM
keenkeen keenkeen is offline
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Originally Posted by Frozenguy View Post
? Why are you going off on such extremes?

If you guys had made a bet that kitco, or so-and-so, would report gold at 1200/ounce on day xyz, then I would agree with you even if it happened on day xyz +2 hours.

But that doesn't seem to be the case.

When someone predicts PM in this market 30 days out, and makes it in 36, that is fine.

Not the same as you like to challenge it as, but for all intents and purposes.
Nope. Sorry 36 does not = 30.

There was a time in this country when people understood those type of very basic facts.

But post "for all intents and purposes" again and I am sure some of the sheeple will buy it...

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  #4003  
Old 02-09-2016, 8:10 AM
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Originally Posted by keenkeen View Post
Nope. Sorry 36 does not = 30.

There was a time in this country when people understood those type of very basic facts.

But post "for all intents and purposes" again and I am sure some of the sheeple will buy it...

? wow

Everyone understands that. we are all way past that. For some reason, you are behind, stuck on that. Thinking people don't believe.

We all agree 30 doesn't equal 36. If you're still stuck on that, I don't have much faith you can catch up.
In a last ditch attempt:
You weren't making a bet.
If people made a move based on his advice, they would have come out on top rather than listening to you say it wouldn't happen.
Not sure what else you think this is about.
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  #4004  
Old 02-09-2016, 8:15 AM
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Originally Posted by therealnickb View Post
I have a clock in my kitchen with no batteries. It's right once a day and once a night which is a much better track record than out resident liar.

"Something" may be the little common sense left floating around in our DNA.
I'm not talking about his credibility, I'm just trying to see why keen keen can't accept he got this one right.

Considering it wasn't some solid bet.
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  #4005  
Old 02-09-2016, 9:12 AM
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Originally Posted by therealnickb View Post
Six lost his securities license for crimes of moral turpitude. He lost his gig as a janitor for stealing jewelry &.other stuff he "found" on the floor of offices he was vacuuming. Now, he cleans parking lots and collects cans.

Go guru(thief) go.
I'm gonna miss it....

How'd my night go? Got up at 12:15 am, headed out at 1:00 am, set up did a little pressure washing then moved location to a shopping center and picked up some trash. Home by 4:30 truck all unloaded. We "found" some money again, $700 billing.

Life is Good...

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  #4006  
Old 02-09-2016, 2:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Frozenguy View Post
? wow

Everyone understands that. we are all way past that. For some reason, you are behind, stuck on that. Thinking people don't believe.

We all agree 30 doesn't equal 36. If you're still stuck on that, I don't have much faith you can catch up.
In a last ditch attempt:
You weren't making a bet.
If people made a move based on his advice, they would have come out on top rather than listening to you say it wouldn't happen.
Not sure what else you think this is about.
Gawd help anyone who has been "making moves" based on his ramblings.

Not sure what else you think this is about.

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  #4007  
Old 02-09-2016, 3:01 PM
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Originally Posted by therealnickb View Post
Six lost his securities license for crimes of moral turpitude. He lost his gig as a janitor for stealing jewelry &.other stuff he "found" on the floor of offices he was vacuuming. Now, he cleans parking lots and collects cans.

Go guru(thief) go.
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Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
I'm gonna miss it....

How'd my night go? Got up at 12:15 am, headed out at 1:00 am, set up did a little pressure washing then moved location to a shopping center and picked up some trash. Home by 4:30 truck all unloaded. We "found" some money again, $700 billing.

Life is Good...

What?

In all seriousness, I'm hoping that therealnickb's claims in the top post above were all tongue-in-cheek. If not, wowsers... what did I miss?
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  #4008  
Old 02-09-2016, 5:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Not a Cook View Post
What?

In all seriousness, I'm hoping that therealnickb's claims in the top post above were all tongue-in-cheek. If not, wowsers... what did I miss?
Nicks just mad at the world. He's Bi-polar and can't work but it pays $1,000 a month. I saw him at 7/11 today running his snapper card thru for fountain drinks and wrapped pastries.

He just doesn't understand why Time Warner won't take EBT for cable.
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  #4009  
Old 02-09-2016, 5:08 PM
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Originally Posted by Not a Cook View Post
What?

In all seriousness, I'm hoping that therealnickb's claims in the top post above were all tongue-in-cheek. If not, wowsers... what did I miss?
I've been tracking this thread for quite a while. Six is betting on the end of the world as we know it. Everything I mentioned above is documented in his own posts. He's got a screw loose and he's f in with peoples financial well being.

I've asked him several times to knock it off. He thinks he's moving the gold market with this thread. Whacko......

I applaud the dude for working at a job most folks wouldn't do. But if he knew a tiny fraction of what he claimed, would he be cleaning parking lots at 2am for $700? I don't think so.
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  #4010  
Old 02-09-2016, 5:09 PM
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Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
Nicks just mad at the world. He's Bi-polar and can't work but it pays $1,000 a month. I saw him at 7/11 today running his snapper card thru for fountain drinks and wrapped pastries.

He just doesn't understand why Time Warner won't take EBT for cable.
Case closed.
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  #4011  
Old 02-09-2016, 5:13 PM
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Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
I'm gonna miss it....

How'd my night go? Got up at 12:15 am, headed out at 1:00 am, set up did a little pressure washing then moved location to a shopping center and picked up some trash. Home by 4:30 truck all unloaded. We "found" some money again, $700 billing.

Life is Good...

gonna miss what? All the "free" stuff you steal?
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  #4012  
Old 02-09-2016, 5:14 PM
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Case closed.
Nick be honest, you were the first person to sign up @ FukyGuru.com for $5 a month.
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  #4013  
Old 02-09-2016, 6:26 PM
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Nick be honest, you were the first person to sign up @ FukyGuru.com for $5 a month.
I've been nothing but honest here. You? Not so much. Knock it off.
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  #4014  
Old 02-09-2016, 10:37 PM
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I've been nothing but honest here. You? Not so much. Knock it off.
Stop. Feeding. The. Troll. (either a troll or mentally ill, and I am inclined to believe the latter given the "guru's" posts and tendency to refer to himself in the third person.) About 40 pages back he said he would be leaving soon not to return. Unfortunately, he has not followed through on his statement. If you stop feeding him, he will find another people in another forum to lure into his train wreck. Leave it alone. He is a kook. He will be waiting for the end until his end but the world is going to keep on functioning much like it has in the last 100 years; no apocalypse for him)
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  #4015  
Old 02-10-2016, 7:39 AM
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Originally Posted by keenkeen View Post
Gawd help anyone who has been "making moves" based on his ramblings.

Not sure what else you think this is about.

Wow you just don't get it.

You keep bringing up his past. I never said anything about his past stuff, just saying he was right this time. And you can't grab it.

And I never said someone should follow his advice now, before, or later. I'm just saying if they did this time, they would have made money. If they listened to you, they would have lost money. And you can't acknowledge he was right this time. You keep saying he was wrong before. Just because he was wrong before doesn't mean he is wrong now when right.
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  #4016  
Old 02-10-2016, 7:45 AM
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Originally Posted by Frozenguy View Post
Wow you just don't get it.

You keep bringing up his past. I never said anything about his past stuff, just saying he was right this time. And you can't grab it.

And I never said someone should follow his advice now, before, or later. I'm just saying if they did this time, they would have made money. If they listened to you, they would have lost money. And you can't acknowledge he was right this time. You keep saying he was wrong before. Just because he was wrong before doesn't mean he is wrong now when right.
Sure, he was "right this time"...other than the fact that he wasn't. I guess you just can't "grab it".

Someone here sure doesn't get it. Feel free to stop trying to convince me 30=36. Or any other number. Wrong before and wrong this time. Seems simple and clear.

SMH.
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Last edited by keenkeen; 03-11-2016 at 1:12 PM..
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  #4017  
Old 02-10-2016, 8:22 AM
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Originally Posted by keenkeen View Post
Sure, he as "right this time"...other than the fact that he wasn't. I guess you just can't "grab it".

Someone here sure doesn't get it. Feel free to stop trying to convince me 30=36. Or any other number. Wrong before and wrong this time. Seems simple and clear.

SMH.
Again, I never said 30=36. You just can't grasp what we are talking about and you keep circling back to some non existent notion.
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  #4018  
Old 02-10-2016, 8:39 AM
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In the interest of "breaking the logjam" , let me throw this out there:

Japan and part of the EU has now gone NIRP. Some (perhaps "many"?) expect the U.S. to go NIRP sometime in the not-too-distant-future. It appears likely that Deutsche Bank may blow up/meltdown in some manner (and is note-worthily reported to be holding the most derivatives out of any of the TBTF banks). And... lots more negative economic indicators abound, but the average American doesn't seem to have noticed any of them yet.

Anyone care to make any short-term, medium-term, or long-term guesses / prognostications regarding where PM prices are heading? Do you think it's a good time to buy? Or a "wait and it'll drop lower" sort-of-time?
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  #4019  
Old 02-10-2016, 8:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Frozenguy View Post
Again, I never said 30=36. You just can't grasp what we are talking about and you keep circling back to some non existent notion.
Being right is being right.

Being wrong is being wrong.

I guess for some in the days of 2+2="whatever you feel it is" that concept is "a non existent notion".

For me it is not.

Let's agree to disagree.
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  #4020  
Old 02-10-2016, 8:49 AM
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Originally Posted by Not a Cook View Post
In the interest of "breaking the logjam" , let me throw this out there:

Japan and part of the EU has now gone NIRP. Some (perhaps "many"?) expect the U.S. to go NIRP sometime in the not-too-distant-future. It appears likely that Deutsche Bank may blow up/meltdown in some manner (and is note-worthily reported to be holding the most derivatives out of any of the TBTF banks). And... lots more negative economic indicators abound, but the average American doesn't seem to have noticed any of them yet.

Anyone care to make any short-term, medium-term, or long-term guesses / prognostications regarding where PM prices are heading? Do you think it's a good time to buy? Or a "wait and it'll drop lower" sort-of-time?
Why do you think, "It appears likely that Deutsche Bank may blow up/meltdown in some manner."?

I would like to hear your reasoning behind this statement.
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  #4021  
Old 02-10-2016, 10:41 AM
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Just took a position in Dust $7.34 for a couple of reasons.

Had a nice run in both physical and miners. This can work as a hedge of my physical if we get a pullback next week with the Chicoms showing back up in the market after dancing with the Monkey.

I don't trust anyone at this point in these crazy markets.
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  #4022  
Old 02-10-2016, 11:22 AM
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Originally Posted by keenkeen View Post
Why do you think, "It appears likely that Deutsche Bank may blow up/meltdown in some manner."?

I would like to hear your reasoning behind this statement.
I'll qualify this with "I'm not a stock analyst nor a financial adviser (and I'm definitely not a guru of any kind), so PLEASE don't make financial decisions based on ANYTHING I write."

That said, it's no secret that Deutsche isn't doing well. Last quarter (IIRC) they had to scrap their dividend entirely and ended up losing something like 9B euros in the same quarter. Also, didn't they fail some "bank stress tests" (that are supposedly REALLY hard to fail) this last year? IIRC, they also have significant Greek exposure and were subject to a credit rating reduction over this last year or so. AND didn't they have to raise some significant capital through offerings more than once in the last couple years (which leads me to think they'll have trouble floating another offering in the current markets in order to raise any significant amount of liquidity)? There's also the alleged "corporate culture problems" that have been floating around for a while (ref. http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/0...n-of-risk.html) and I find it unlikely that management has reigned itself in since the 2008 debacle. Then there's the "common sense" approach/factor that any bank operating in a NIRP environment that is applied to consumer deposits is likely to LOSE significant amounts of liquidity through cash withdrawals.

Of course, those are just based upon what I can remember, and my memory is imperfect. I personally suspect that Deutsche Bank hasn't been "healthy" for quite some time. I know many folks here aren't fond of ZeroHedge, but check out some recent articles regarding Deutsche for more information and speculation: http://www.zerohedge.com/category/tags/deutsche-bank. This article appears especially disturbing: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...-its-own-words

All that said, I HOPE that I'm totally wrong about this and Deutsche is either doing well or gets bailed out silently and at no cost to Americans. Deutsche Bank is WAY too heavy into derivatives... I wouldn't even want to guess which other banks and financial firms would be hurt/brought down by any significant blow-up at Deutsche.

I do suspect that we're in for a bit of a wild financial ride ahead (if something happens with Deutsche Bank I would view it more as a symptom than a cause of a larger financial crisis), BUT I HOPE I'm wrong about that and that the economy as a whole improves.

In either case, I'd love to learn some "inside info" as to when any upcoming "good deals" on physical PMs might be offered. I can't see any reason not to purchase some (other than the fact that they aren't cheap ). I'd just like to get the most PMs for my FRNs.
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  #4023  
Old 02-10-2016, 11:31 AM
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Its a good time in light of the oil instability situation. To get into PM's since paper money has no intrinsic value...
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  #4024  
Old 02-10-2016, 11:57 AM
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Just took a position in Dust $7.34 for a couple of reasons.

Had a nice run in both physical and miners. This can work as a hedge of my physical if we get a pullback next week with the Chicoms showing back up in the market after dancing with the Monkey.

I don't trust anyone at this point in these crazy markets.
Had to close that loser out. Seems now like we are setting up for a peak over $1,200 again?
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  #4025  
Old 02-10-2016, 12:04 PM
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100-WEEK MA is now sitting at $1,199

It would be sooo nice to see us stay above that level for 24 hours.

$1,228
$1,300
$1,345 Own these...
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  #4026  
Old 02-10-2016, 2:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Not a Cook View Post
I'll qualify this with "I'm not a stock analyst nor a financial adviser (and I'm definitely not a guru of any kind), so PLEASE don't make financial decisions based on ANYTHING I write."

That said, it's no secret that Deutsche isn't doing well. Last quarter (IIRC) they had to scrap their dividend entirely and ended up losing something like 9B euros in the same quarter. Also, didn't they fail some "bank stress tests" (that are supposedly REALLY hard to fail) this last year? IIRC, they also have significant Greek exposure and were subject to a credit rating reduction over this last year or so. AND didn't they have to raise some significant capital through offerings more than once in the last couple years (which leads me to think they'll have trouble floating another offering in the current markets in order to raise any significant amount of liquidity)? There's also the alleged "corporate culture problems" that have been floating around for a while (ref. http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/0...n-of-risk.html) and I find it unlikely that management has reigned itself in since the 2008 debacle. Then there's the "common sense" approach/factor that any bank operating in a NIRP environment that is applied to consumer deposits is likely to LOSE significant amounts of liquidity through cash withdrawals.

Of course, those are just based upon what I can remember, and my memory is imperfect. I personally suspect that Deutsche Bank hasn't been "healthy" for quite some time. I know many folks here aren't fond of ZeroHedge, but check out some recent articles regarding Deutsche for more information and speculation: http://www.zerohedge.com/category/tags/deutsche-bank. This article appears especially disturbing: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...-its-own-words

All that said, I HOPE that I'm totally wrong about this and Deutsche is either doing well or gets bailed out silently and at no cost to Americans. Deutsche Bank is WAY too heavy into derivatives... I wouldn't even want to guess which other banks and financial firms would be hurt/brought down by any significant blow-up at Deutsche.

I do suspect that we're in for a bit of a wild financial ride ahead (if something happens with Deutsche Bank I would view it more as a symptom than a cause of a larger financial crisis), BUT I HOPE I'm wrong about that and that the economy as a whole improves.

In either case, I'd love to learn some "inside info" as to when any upcoming "good deals" on physical PMs might be offered. I can't see any reason not to purchase some (other than the fact that they aren't cheap ). I'd just like to get the most PMs for my FRNs.
Interesting thoughts on DB. I think they will weather the storm and not need any type of bailout personally.

As for PMs, I think they are at about 6 month highs right now...about the time most people start saying things like: "I can't see any reason not to purchase some...".

If they are a such a great bargain now why didn't people buy the when they where 10-15% (or more) cheaper?

No easy answers to that, other than "human nature".
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  #4027  
Old 02-10-2016, 3:19 PM
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Gold has been wanting to break past 1200 so hard and for so long now, it just busted past and hit $1205
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  #4028  
Old 02-10-2016, 3:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Frozenguy View Post
Gold has been wanting to break past 1200 so hard and for so long now, it just busted past and hit $1205
Happy days, no stopping it now. $1,900 here we come. Glad I covered my short. Can you say $50 up day?

To Da Moon !
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  #4029  
Old 02-10-2016, 3:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Not a Cook View Post
I'll qualify this with "I'm not a stock analyst nor a financial adviser (and I'm definitely not a guru of any kind), so PLEASE don't make financial decisions based on ANYTHING I write."

That said, it's no secret that Deutsche isn't doing well. Last quarter (IIRC) they had to scrap their dividend entirely and ended up losing something like 9B euros in the same quarter. Also, didn't they fail some "bank stress tests" (that are supposedly REALLY hard to fail) this last year? IIRC, they also have significant Greek exposure and were subject to a credit rating reduction over this last year or so. AND didn't they have to raise some significant capital through offerings more than once in the last couple years (which leads me to think they'll have trouble floating another offering in the current markets in order to raise any significant amount of liquidity)? There's also the alleged "corporate culture problems" that have been floating around for a while (ref. http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/0...n-of-risk.html) and I find it unlikely that management has reigned itself in since the 2008 debacle. Then there's the "common sense" approach/factor that any bank operating in a NIRP environment that is applied to consumer deposits is likely to LOSE significant amounts of liquidity through cash withdrawals.

Of course, those are just based upon what I can remember, and my memory is imperfect. I personally suspect that Deutsche Bank hasn't been "healthy" for quite some time. I know many folks here aren't fond of ZeroHedge, but check out some recent articles regarding Deutsche for more information and speculation: http://www.zerohedge.com/category/tags/deutsche-bank. This article appears especially disturbing: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-0...-its-own-words

All that said, I HOPE that I'm totally wrong about this and Deutsche is either doing well or gets bailed out silently and at no cost to Americans. Deutsche Bank is WAY too heavy into derivatives... I wouldn't even want to guess which other banks and financial firms would be hurt/brought down by any significant blow-up at Deutsche.

I do suspect that we're in for a bit of a wild financial ride ahead (if something happens with Deutsche Bank I would view it more as a symptom than a cause of a larger financial crisis), BUT I HOPE I'm wrong about that and that the economy as a whole improves.

In either case, I'd love to learn some "inside info" as to when any upcoming "good deals" on physical PMs might be offered. I can't see any reason not to purchase some (other than the fact that they aren't cheap ). I'd just like to get the most PMs for my FRNs.
You've been watching this thread and the markets for several years now. You saw a low in Gold of $1,050 when all the fools were calling $800 or less.

Day late and several hundy short. You have no one to blame but yourself.

That's why DCA is great and pooh pooh the goof ball neigh sayers.

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Old 02-10-2016, 3:48 PM
sixoclockhold sixoclockhold is offline
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Gold up $13.00 tonight so far on the China open. $1,211

We have lift off Capitan.
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Old 02-10-2016, 4:00 PM
sixoclockhold sixoclockhold is offline
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Interesting thoughts on DB. I think they will weather the storm and not need any type of bailout personally.

As for PMs, I think they are at about 6 month highs right now...about the time most people start saying things like: "I can't see any reason not to purchase some...".

If they are a such a great bargain now why didn't people buy the when they where 10-15% (or more) cheaper?

No easy answers to that, other than "human nature".
Some of us have never stopped. This is how we spend our Happy New Year trash can & bottle money. Loser....

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Old 02-10-2016, 4:27 PM
sixoclockhold sixoclockhold is offline
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Originally Posted by keenkeen View Post
Interesting thoughts on DB. I think they will weather the storm and not need any type of bailout personally.

As for PMs, I think they are at about 6 month highs right now...about the time most people start saying things like: "I can't see any reason not to purchase some...".

If they are a such a great bargain now why didn't people buy the when they where 10-15% (or more) cheaper?

No easy answers to that, other than "human nature".
I might also add, I accumulated over a Kilo of Gold in 2001 when it was on no ones radar. Had to sell it all for the daughters wedding but those are things Dad's do. I saw another opportunity 2.5 years ago and the rest is history. The future is sooo dang bright for Gold I just can't contain myself.

And she thinks you're an xxx

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Last edited by sixoclockhold; 02-10-2016 at 6:34 PM.. Reason: Technically U R
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  #4033  
Old 02-10-2016, 4:30 PM
sixoclockhold sixoclockhold is offline
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Wanna play nicky?
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Old 02-10-2016, 4:38 PM
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Yugo Yugo is offline
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10k gold here we come.... the cards are falling.
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Voting for Donald Trump is the protest vote against: Keynesian economics, Neocon wars, exporting jobs, open borders, Washington criminal cartel, too big to fail banks and too big to jail pols and banksters.

Cutting off foreign aid to EVERY country and dismantling the police/surveillance state!

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I think this thread needs a rest…..
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  #4035  
Old 02-10-2016, 7:19 PM
sixoclockhold sixoclockhold is offline
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10k gold here we come.... the cards are falling.
It would appear everyone has had enough of the manipulation and the metals will shine again !

Negative interest, come on, the world financial system is blowing up and people are acting like this is normal. This puppy (stawk market) is going to ZERO and bonds are going to EXPLODE !

I'm sure people here said $3 barrel oil Fuky? You're Crazy ! Yep, like a Fox.

https://www.superstation95.com/index.php/world/875

""Stunning!" Ten Percent of London Metals Exchange (LME) Members QUIT Today! "
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  #4036  
Old 02-10-2016, 8:22 PM
sixoclockhold sixoclockhold is offline
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Recap: Between 3/4's-1 oz. of Gold for every person on this planet. It is the ultimate MONEY, maybe the only money soon. Do you have yours?

Can Gold go to $25,000 an oz.? Sure it can, if it is used to cover only a portion of our debt. Can supplies run low or be gone quickly? Yep, bank on it. There are a huge number of shorts in the market with all the negativity in Gold the last few years. The Comex is empty of Gold, Central banks are net purchasers now. Everyone and their brother hedged Gold. These bets will now reverse. China and India are max buyers. What happens if the US wealth is plowed into Gold? I don't believe this time the physical is available. We could see huge upward swings in the price should people chase the Golden opportunity.

$1,300 Gold could happen in hours, days or weeks. Once the rush is on, who will sell knowing the price is skyrocketing? Nobody ! We may see $1,900 in short order.

I think Silver comes for the ride but hits my prediction of 100 to 1 Gold.

The world hedged their currencies while the dollar rose. Now it's our turn?
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Old 02-10-2016, 8:49 PM
repomanNWP repomanNWP is offline
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Although this thread is utterly wrecked by the trolls fighting each other, I'll add to the noise. I went 65% cash, 20%bonds, rest in equities in early January... for me, it was a bold move as I've been a long term buy and hold investor for 30 years. But, the data could not be ignored.. it was bad, and is bad. There is no will to fix fiscal policy, the Fed is completely out of tools for monetary policy, corporate earnings are down, wages are down, and jobs are only up because of the rise of crappy low paying part time jobs. I've picked up a little PM over the last couple weeks but still only about 1% of my net worth so far... I may go up to 3% or so, but I really would prefer to remain in cash. The dollar drop is going to push PM's higher, as is the general capitulation that its about the only safe haven. I've paid very close attention to all the talking heads since early January and its been fascinating to see the shift. Initially, the bubble vision types held strong, telling everyone not to sell... then they started talking about why its good to have some cash around, to buy the dips. Then they started admitting corporate earnings aren't coming in, and growth appears to be slowing down. Then they started to say the dreaded "R" word...recession... suggesting its still highly unlikely, but possible. Next they admitted PM's are good to have, but only 5% of your portfolio... and that brings us to today.

I'm very happy I made the move to cash when I did, and I have no desire to come back into this market. I believe the Fed will have to cut the rate back, and float QE4... the economy is WEAK, and its not because of China. Good luck to all, I'm on the sidelines.
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  #4038  
Old 02-10-2016, 9:30 PM
Not a Cook Not a Cook is offline
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Originally Posted by repomanNWP View Post
Although this thread is utterly wrecked by the trolls fighting each other, I'll add to the noise. I went 65% cash, 20%bonds, rest in equities in early January... for me, it was a bold move as I've been a long term buy and hold investor for 30 years. But, the data could not be ignored.. it was bad, and is bad. There is no will to fix fiscal policy, the Fed is completely out of tools for monetary policy, corporate earnings are down, wages are down, and jobs are only up because of the rise of crappy low paying part time jobs. I've picked up a little PM over the last couple weeks but still only about 1% of my net worth so far... I may go up to 3% or so, but I really would prefer to remain in cash. The dollar drop is going to push PM's higher, as is the general capitulation that its about the only safe haven. I've paid very close attention to all the talking heads since early January and its been fascinating to see the shift. Initially, the bubble vision types held strong, telling everyone not to sell... then they started talking about why its good to have some cash around, to buy the dips. Then they started admitting corporate earnings aren't coming in, and growth appears to be slowing down. Then they started to say the dreaded "R" word...recession... suggesting its still highly unlikely, but possible. Next they admitted PM's are good to have, but only 5% of your portfolio... and that brings us to today.

I'm very happy I made the move to cash when I did, and I have no desire to come back into this market. I believe the Fed will have to cut the rate back, and float QE4... the economy is WEAK, and its not because of China. Good luck to all, I'm on the sidelines.
I'm a bit younger (I assume - please forgive my assumption), but agree with the basic sentiments you shared.

As much as I don't WANT to think it, I'm concerned we're watching a slow-motion train collision. We know it's going to happen even before it does because we can see two trains on the same track heading (SLOWLY) toward each other, we just don't know when it will happen (and there doesn't seem to be anyone to stop either of the trains before they do crash) or just how bad it will be when they do crash (although we doubt it'll be anything less than frightening to watch).

I devour news and have done so for many years. That said, I'm very much aware that some of the "experts" with pretty decent track records have predicted (some 7 years ago, even) that this mess would occur, PMs would spike, and then as commodity deflation kicks in (assuming the PM paper fixes are still functioning) that PM prices would actually deflate significantly for a short while before taking back off into high inflation or hyperinflation. Does anyone else here share that same suspicion? If such an event occurs and physical PMs are readily available for purchase, that would seem to be the ideal time to buy. Or am I too out in left field for everyone here?

Last edited by Not a Cook; 02-10-2016 at 9:33 PM..
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  #4039  
Old 02-10-2016, 11:35 PM
sixoclockhold sixoclockhold is offline
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I'm a bit younger (I assume - please forgive my assumption), but agree with the basic sentiments you shared.

As much as I don't WANT to think it, I'm concerned we're watching a slow-motion train collision. We know it's going to happen even before it does because we can see two trains on the same track heading (SLOWLY) toward each other, we just don't know when it will happen (and there doesn't seem to be anyone to stop either of the trains before they do crash) or just how bad it will be when they do crash (although we doubt it'll be anything less than frightening to watch).

I devour news and have done so for many years. That said, I'm very much aware that some of the "experts" with pretty decent track records have predicted (some 7 years ago, even) that this mess would occur, PMs would spike, and then as commodity deflation kicks in (assuming the PM paper fixes are still functioning) that PM prices would actually deflate significantly for a short while before taking back off into high inflation or hyperinflation. Does anyone else here share that same suspicion? If such an event occurs and physical PMs are readily available for purchase, that would seem to be the ideal time to buy. Or am I too out in left field for everyone here?
What movie was it that PM's retraced 40-60% and then took off to new highs? Did we miss the whole commodity deflating thing too? Why is the Baltic Dry so low, or copper, oil, corn, wheat

Are you watching the movie or reacting on it?

Please show me an expert that years ago predicted anything but inflation with the excessive printing. This toilet bowl swirl of deflation is an effect that nobody counted on.

Even Gold Bugs didn't really believe $50,000 Gold but you know what now?

To Da Moon !!!
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  #4040  
Old 02-10-2016, 11:40 PM
sixoclockhold sixoclockhold is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by repomanNWP View Post
Although this thread is utterly wrecked by the trolls fighting each other, I'll add to the noise. I went 65% cash, 20%bonds, rest in equities in early January... for me, it was a bold move as I've been a long term buy and hold investor for 30 years. But, the data could not be ignored.. it was bad, and is bad. There is no will to fix fiscal policy, the Fed is completely out of tools for monetary policy, corporate earnings are down, wages are down, and jobs are only up because of the rise of crappy low paying part time jobs. I've picked up a little PM over the last couple weeks but still only about 1% of my net worth so far... I may go up to 3% or so, but I really would prefer to remain in cash. The dollar drop is going to push PM's higher, as is the general capitulation that its about the only safe haven. I've paid very close attention to all the talking heads since early January and its been fascinating to see the shift. Initially, the bubble vision types held strong, telling everyone not to sell... then they started talking about why its good to have some cash around, to buy the dips. Then they started admitting corporate earnings aren't coming in, and growth appears to be slowing down. Then they started to say the dreaded "R" word...recession... suggesting its still highly unlikely, but possible. Next they admitted PM's are good to have, but only 5% of your portfolio... and that brings us to today.

I'm very happy I made the move to cash when I did, and I have no desire to come back into this market. I believe the Fed will have to cut the rate back, and float QE4... the economy is WEAK, and its not because of China. Good luck to all, I'm on the sidelines.
What about Zimbabwe? Me thinks you will sleep even better with a stack. There will come a point there is NO GOLD available.
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