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Survival and Preparations Long and short term survival and 'prepping'. |
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#81
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Oh...wait.... .
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Bring hay for my horse....wine for my men....and mud for my turtle! What do you hear ???...... Nothing but the rain. Well grab your gun and bring in the cat. "A fear of weapons is a sign of retarded sexual and emotional maturity." - Sigmund Freud |
#82
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No not crashing, still around 18,000. However gold is up $68 since his prediction. Maybe he self banned for three months?
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"A free people ought to be armed" George Washington, 1790 "Don't fire unless fired upon. But if they mean to have war, let it begin here" Capt. John Parker, 19 April 1776, Lexington Green |
#83
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Are we still crashing? Is the sky falling? Can I come out of my bunker???
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“People believed that the opposite of war is peace. The truth is that the opposite of war is more often slavery” - Battlestar Galactica Member: Patron member NRA, lifetime member SAF, CRPA |
#84
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#85
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Still crashing...
(Into record highs that is.) How sad it will be in October when it all collapses.
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#87
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Of course it is a bubble. While the S&P non-GAAP PE is hovering around 20, pretty high by historical standards (means stocks are pretty expensive), that doesn't immediately set off alarm bells, just pricey.
If you look at the GAAP PE (the price earnings ratio of the S&P by using earning that conform to Generally Accepted Accounting Principles, the rules the world uses to account for real profits) it is over 26 and rising (stock price bubble, by anyone's standards). What the gap (no pun intended) between the Non-GAAP earnings and GAAP earnings represents is how much companies are doing extraordinary things to pump up their numbers, numbers those on Wall Street will gladly use to hawk equities. With interest rates being artificially suppressed, companies can borrow cheap and use these cheap funds to make non-GAAP numbers look great. S&P just published a warning regarding corporate debt ballooning. Their forecast is for corporate debt to balloon from $50T (yes a T), to $75T I by 2020. They are extremely negative on the implications of this ballooning debt and its implications for even the slightest rate normalization. The funny thing is the stock market isn't even on the chart of bubbles. Bonds are geometrically more expensive than stocks, as bond prices get bid up while all these entitlement managers bid for yield. We are in the land of bubble and bust, get used to it as this is the only constant we will live with for the rest of our days. I agree with the OP at least from the stand point that it is absolutely inevitable that the mother of all asset value crashes is coming. The notion that anyone can call the time, day or even year of the next crash, or for that matter if the crash next is going to be the really big one is, of course, ridiculous. Even a guy with the resources of George Soros can't do that (he has called for a market crash several times since the 2009 lows and nothing has happened yet). Just know the "policy makers" all have the same road map. It has succeeded in inflating asset values back to 2005-2006 highes. With each successive cycle, more leverage is put on to accomplish the same goal. Central bank balance sheets continually grow. Over $10T is sovereign debt around the world yields negative rates (you pay the government a fee to hold your money). This is not going to end well, but when? The thing that makes you a crackpot is saying you know when.
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When asked what qualities he most valued in his generals, Napoleon said, "give me lucky ones." Last edited by Bill Steele; 07-21-2016 at 7:19 AM.. |
#89
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Not suggesting a day trade on your Roth, but that spire of a chart is screaming to "take some profits". People sell stock for all sorts of reasons, so an insider might be just buying a house or sending his daughter to an elite liberal arts college back east, but big chunks by people on the inside, at an all time high, can mean a round trip is just around the corner. It isn't like it hasn't happened n times before in Silicon Valley. Not stock advice, mind you.
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When asked what qualities he most valued in his generals, Napoleon said, "give me lucky ones." |
#90
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#91
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People like me?
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When asked what qualities he most valued in his generals, Napoleon said, "give me lucky ones." |
#92
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All markets crash. Next crash will be an opportunity too buy. Because we have higher stocks I am keeping a but more in cash. Thou I do wish I bought a certain game company that has poeple chasing shadows
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#93
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So why did he sell at $22 and $30 over the last couple of years? I guess cause it was about to take "a round trip"...
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#94
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I'm going to hold this long term, I purchased for the autonomous car/ artificial intelligence part, they are just getting into this new field. Also for example if a person purchased $100 of Apple in 2002 then today they would have $3,000 but for the vast majority of people they would have sold long ago. |
#95
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Tough crowd here. I include two sides of the story to try and capture the whole picture and some people become enraged and claim "people like you" say nothing, while others ignore one side you presented and choose to attack only half of your position and ignore the rest. It has to be tough going through life so jacked up.
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When asked what qualities he most valued in his generals, Napoleon said, "give me lucky ones." Last edited by Bill Steele; 07-22-2016 at 2:24 AM.. |
#96
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On AAPL, my wife worked there for a long time and we still own a core position in it (never sold a share, first because it wasn't worth anything, then later we didn't want to take the tax hit). But I have to say, what appeared to be a terrific start to his tenure as ultimate boss, seems to have foundered lately for Cook. For the first time since Steve's return and our stock started to actually become something, I am having enough second thoughts about Cook, I may finally take the capital gains hit and move on. Things seem to be really faltering in the big picture area. In any case, I started slowly paring positions in all my equities a couple years ago, less so with some of the higher div payers (retired and all), as it has been a really nice ride off the lows of 2009. Even my favorite dividend payers have gotten so expensive, I just can't see where the upside might come from. I know the Fed will do anything to prop up equities, but a 200+% gain in the last 8 years is really hard to leave on the table. Especially when every single stock I look at just seems too expensive to buy more. It isn't 1999, but there definitely is a massive complacency out there.
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When asked what qualities he most valued in his generals, Napoleon said, "give me lucky ones." Last edited by Bill Steele; 07-22-2016 at 2:50 AM.. |
#97
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Pointing out facts and asking about disconects in your posts equals "enraged" and "going through life jacked up"? LOL I did notice you didn't responds to the facts in my post...hmmm. Lash out much?
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#98
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i said in my post, insiders sell for lots of reasons, it is just another data point. To decolate my post, attack it out of context and infer my position was it was going to be a round tripper is the kind of nonsense that gives Internet forums a bad name. Like I said last, tough to go through life so jacked up.
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When asked what qualities he most valued in his generals, Napoleon said, "give me lucky ones." Last edited by Bill Steele; 07-22-2016 at 4:09 AM.. |
#99
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Number of words typed per minute (or post) clearly don't correlate with being able to put together a coherent train of thougt.
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Last edited by keenkeen; 07-22-2016 at 1:10 PM.. |
#100
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this is it. the crash has OFFICIALLY begun. this month is going to be a bloodbath.
the Dow went down almost 400 points and SP 500 by 53 points. im only going to be posting 2-3 more times here on calguns before im off to Bora Bora sipping margaritas while watching the entire world economy come crashing down. expect bank holidays, internet shutdown and/or power-outages this year. goodluck |
#101
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One day with the market down ~2% and the end is here huh? One thing is for sure...in less than 30 days you will get your vacation...from Calguns at least.
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Last edited by keenkeen; 09-10-2016 at 1:29 PM.. |
#102
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I call it the Trump adjustment. They're getting used to the idea of Trump as president. We're less than sixty days from the election and the markets tend to predict six months in advance, which would be March. First 100 days in office. Heh.
I doubt there will be any crash. That said I'm out and totally in dirt except for operating cash for the business. I service industry, mostly ag, and people I do business with are moving very cautiously and receivables are aging more than a year ago. I don't think they don't have money but rather are hanging on to it longer. Uncertainty does that. I'd expect more of the same in the near term. Folks with cash to burn could certainly find some short term plays like with the Brexit thing. That was fun. |
#103
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#105
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That is the wrong way to think about it...
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#106
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NOW would be the time to buy THOSE stocks...
If it makes you feel better, even with the market crappy in the last year+ (at least for the stocks in my self-directed IRA), I am still up ~$1500 (although it was MUCH higher before about 1.5 years ago)... and ~$1500+ in funds avail for trading, for when something tanks, to buy more lows. If I sold all physical AG, I would still be up there too, as I bought the majority @ <$14/OZT, and most of that is up AVG of +35%, if I sold on eBay. Last edited by the86d; 09-11-2016 at 4:49 AM.. |
#107
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I've been thru the ups and downs before, I'm a buy and hold type of guy.
Except for the early 90's when I had some tech stocks, I bailed on them!
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A member of The Tonkin Gulf Yacht Club |
#110
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Keen has it right. Until you sell, you are never down if you are truly down. I like seeing the market down. Means I can buy more on the way back up. 2009 was a banner year for me. I bought like crazy on the way up.
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Former political prisoner who escaped on 9-24-23. |
#111
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Rates are going to go up this year...not a lot be they will raise them. They have to at this point.
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#112
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Not necessarily, they can keep the status quo of not changing rates at all. The real economists know the economy is in the crapper and don't want to raise rates.
Unless you're a tinfoil hatter, you might think they'll jack up rates, tank the economy right as Trump takes office. But I've taken my iodine pills this month, so I'm clearly not a tinfoiler. |
#113
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Obviously anything we write on this forum is personal opinion, and in my own personal opinion, the Fed will continually try to find a new reason to prevent a rate increase. Just because Yellen tries to act tough doesn't mean the Fed is actually going to do anything. Yes, I can be totally wrong, but I don't see any compelling evidence to suggest anything has changed in our economy that would push the Fed to make a changes in their monetary policy. As far as a market crash, I don't think so. I still believe we can see a little more discounting and the SP500 dropping to an even 2000, but not much beyond that. I honestly don't think any real market declines are going to occur until the UK officially files to withdraw itself from the EU. |
#114
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They have to raise rates so they have a lever to pull when the next slowdown comes.
I say they will, looks like you two say they won't. We shall see... (Ps- a rate hike isn't gong to "tank the economy" and Trump isn't going to "take office".) YRMV
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#115
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The economic cycles typically wax and wane in 8-10 year cycles, right now we're at the top of an 8 year cycle after stagnant to slow growth. They don't have to do anything, however they'll probably manipulate some of the rates to minimize the losses and damages again like they tried with stimulus and quantitative easing (government spending and inflation)
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#117
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However, don't buy into the whole "having a lever to pull in the next slowdown" idea. It's been well researched and written on, there is no real plan if another economic crisis happens anytime soon. Clawing back 25 basis points is not a solution to another slowdown or crisis. |
#118
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On CNBC today they were doing clips of notable pundits at their Seeking Alpha forum.
Ray Dalio (Bridgewater), one of the smartest guys in the investing universe (and richest) was on speaking on a number of topics. One he was on was debt. Dalio's take is the worldwide debt cycle is really getting long in the tooth and quite risky. As central banks all around the world have been doing the same thing (manipulating rates ever lower), world wide debt has grown breathlessly. China went from net lender to net debtor with 250% debt to GDP (total debt) in 7 years! One thing I have learned over the last many decades is nobody knows what too much debt is until you are in the resolution phase. How too much debt gets resolved is different each cycle. It can be a slow degradation in productivity and growth (essentially a slow degradation in standards of living) or it can be a rupture. Just like not knowing when too much debt is reality, nobody knows how the resolution process will play out. All that is certain is the debt cycle will be resolved (to the downside as they say). Going on more recent episodes of boom and bust, my take is rupture is the likely outcome. The fact that the central banks all around the world are "all in" with their belief system, if rupture is the resolution mechanism, things will get pretty nasty, and for a longer time than the last few busts...
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When asked what qualities he most valued in his generals, Napoleon said, "give me lucky ones." |
#119
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Is the "bloodbath" almost over? How will the world react when the DOW falls ~1,800-1,900 points a day for the next 7 trading days? How will we survive, oh most brilliant TruckeeGunner66?
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Last edited by keenkeen; 09-21-2016 at 12:11 PM.. |
#120
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To da moon...oh....that's another topic (and guru) entirely...
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Bring hay for my horse....wine for my men....and mud for my turtle! What do you hear ???...... Nothing but the rain. Well grab your gun and bring in the cat. "A fear of weapons is a sign of retarded sexual and emotional maturity." - Sigmund Freud |
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