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Survival and Preparations Long and short term survival and 'prepping'.

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  #361  
Old 12-20-2013, 8:37 AM
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Just buy ammo.
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  #362  
Old 12-20-2013, 8:38 AM
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Just buy ammo.
I agree, the money I've invested in ammo has out gained my PM holdings.
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  #363  
Old 12-20-2013, 8:49 AM
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My father-in-law has boxes of 80s ammo that he got for like 1/10 the price of today's prices.
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  #364  
Old 12-20-2013, 12:20 PM
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Artificial suppression is artificial.

It's only a matter of time before an explosion occurs.
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  #365  
Old 12-20-2013, 12:45 PM
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Artificial suppression is artificial.

It's only a matter of time before an explosion occurs.
Agreed.
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  #366  
Old 12-20-2013, 12:46 PM
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Originally Posted by glockman19 View Post
Gold and Silver will keep going down as the economy improves...the PM flight to safety play is over...until the next financial crisis.

But in the meantime I see gold dipping to around $1,000 in the first quarter 2014 and Silver as low as $15.

I don't see PM's as a good investment in the upcoming year or years...If the Fed continues to reduce bond purchases add interest rates rise, gold could drop to $800 and Silver back under $10.

I do NOT see Gold under any circumstance going over $1,300-$1,400 or Silver over $22.

Sounds like you might be part of the GOV conspiracy.

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  #367  
Old 12-20-2013, 1:24 PM
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Sounds like you might be part of the GOV conspiracy.

Don't kid yourself, you can be sure the Feds are all over this site.

But the real problem is, our leaders are creating a "huge sucking sound" aka Ross Perot, of Gold heading East and weakening our future by their games to create a negative appearance of Gold in attempts to keep the dollar from collapse, when in fact it has and will ALWAYS be a storage of REAL wealth.

We need to know, is China now in on all this to join the club having Gold backing their yaun OR are they going to dethrone us as the worlds reserve currency 10 years from now? Our GDP of 3/4's being consumer related is dangerous.

China bought the dip yesterday and put Gold right back over $1,200 today and laughed all the way to the vault.

=========
Gold volumes for the benchmark cash contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE), China’s biggest spot bullion market, climbed to a 10 week high as lower prices led to increased buying.

The volume for bullion of 99.99% purity climbed to 19,775 kilograms yesterday, the biggest since October 8, from 13,673 kilograms the previous day, according to exchange data compiled by Bloomberg. Prices fell on the SGE overnight for a third day, losing 2.1% to 235.85 yuan a gram ($1,208 an ounce), the lowest since February 2010.

http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed...-sub-1200-gold
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  #368  
Old 12-21-2013, 4:31 AM
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Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
Smashy you would have had the same blind eyes in 2000 when I was buying gold at 300 and silver at 4.

Enjoy the ride
Buying for under the long term cost of production (cost of production currently elevated as the mines use costlier methods not normally used in order to extract the maximum gold possible to take advantage of the rubes) is the only way buying PM's make sense.

Massive difference between that and today...

Context and value are everything, maybe someday you'll learn that. You're dollar cost averaging yourself into a nice loss.

Enjoy the ride
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  #369  
Old 12-21-2013, 5:54 AM
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The US EPA makes it so hard for a Lead Smelter to operate that the last one in the USA is closing it's doors for good Dec31 and the steel mills have been shut down or curtailed due to union driven economics.

To me, it seems that the USA is definitely heading down a road where the US$ will no longer be the world currency, at which time it would be good to be able to have gold. The Gold market does seem to be manipulated and if rumors are true that the US has been quietly selling off the gold reserve to prop up the dollar, we could have a perfect storm approaching on the horizon.

The fact that it is more difficult to get a mortgage, plays into that scenario as well. Paying for a 30yr mortgage at low interest rates with inflated dollars must make the banks and the feds very worried, hence their reason for keeping the interest rates down.

Just my thoughts on the matter.
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  #370  
Old 12-21-2013, 11:34 AM
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We are shooting ourselves in the foot:

"It was reported that former Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva preferred the Rafale, while Rousseff had previously been in favor of the Boeing fighter. Analysts suggest that she turned her back on Boeing in the wake of revelations that the US National Security Agency (NSA) spy program had directly targeted the president's own communications."

http://www.dw.de/brazil-agrees-multi...ets/a-17307074

More and more deals are being sidelined from hitting our shores. Petrodollars, foreign exchanges in other than US Reserve Currency. Oh, were on our way out with this dollar, that looks inevitable. We see everyone scrambling to buy hard assets now, like land, fine art, expensive RE, cash cash dumpo the dollar. The world is awash in US fiat backed by a rabid printing press. When the currency resets, imo there will be a DEMAND that part of the currency's value will be back by GOLD.
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  #371  
Old 12-24-2013, 8:18 PM
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Short answer yes. Long answer no
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  #372  
Old 12-26-2013, 7:07 AM
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A must watch for the SilverBugs ! Doesn't hurt we see over $20 again today

And don't EVER expect our Gold back from China now. Payback time.

http://www.history.com/shows/big-his...lver-supernova
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  #373  
Old 12-26-2013, 8:57 AM
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I want silver down to 18 again so I can buy more.
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  #374  
Old 12-26-2013, 2:29 PM
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Made my last silver purchase on Cyber Monday. Still buying PMs here and there as sales opportunities present themselves. Not to say I'm not also stacking cash and lead and investing in equities.

Leave no stone unturned!
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  #375  
Old 12-28-2013, 10:48 AM
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With the price of silver being as low as it is compared to previous years, and gold actually reaching around 1200 an ounce, how can you go wrong by investing in PM? I mean looking at previous years those prices are pretty low, but its skeptical weather or not it will continue to fall or begin to rise.

To add to that, wouldn't it make sense to invest in PM if you are concerned for the collapse of the US dollar? Once paper is no longer valuable, gold is the standard isn't it? Especially with China moving over to the gold standard, that makes it more desirable? Im just trying to learn this stuff and have just started trying to understand these matters so if these are dumb questions, please just inform me, I don't need to know how uneducated I am in the matter, I already admit that.
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  #376  
Old 12-29-2013, 7:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by desertjunkie760 View Post
With the price of silver being as low as it is compared to previous years, and gold actually reaching around 1200 an ounce, how can you go wrong by investing in PM? I mean looking at previous years those prices are pretty low, but its skeptical weather or not it will continue to fall or begin to rise.

To add to that, wouldn't it make sense to invest in PM if you are concerned for the collapse of the US dollar? Once paper is no longer valuable, gold is the standard isn't it? Especially with China moving over to the gold standard, that makes it more desirable? Im just trying to learn this stuff and have just started trying to understand these matters so if these are dumb questions, please just inform me, I don't need to know how uneducated I am in the matter, I already admit that.
I don't think "investing" is the right term. It's more insurance like guns/ammo/water/food/shelter. Gold/Silver were the last on my list, all others have been taken care of for my immediate family, even a bug out location I purchased 30 years ago specifically for potential economic downturn. That was my first purchase. Land paid for, with fresh water, 2 hours from the nearest interstate, hardwoods, game & fish, moderate temps and local power generation via a dam. So yes, us old folks were even thinking this way long before Obama. The depression was still fresh in my grandmothers mind.

Once I got my bases covered I went the standard 3 to 1 value of Gold/Silver with like in kind equivalent in cash. You never want to have to touch the PM's so discretionary income has always been used. No get rich plans here, only survival of the fittest.

There really isn't enough of the physical metals to back any currency completely or trade them outright. 3/4- 1 of oz. of Gold per person and about 8-10 of silver if all minted into coins. Currencies get in trouble because they are not backed fully with natural resources ie PM's, oil, gas, crops etc. The expansion of fake money has gone too far due to greed and some day it will reset. Will PM's play a part in that? I'm betting they will, I may not be the recipient of it but my children or grand kids surely will.
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  #377  
Old 12-31-2013, 6:21 AM
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Some pretty crazy manipulation today, Gold/Silver get hammered before market open in heavy slam volume only to rebound for gains in the day. Not for the weak in the knee crowd for sure.

Gold loses $20 bucks in slam, then gains $34 in an in your face dollar. Silver dips .80 cents then gains a buck. Crazy, love it. Should tell all something with this kind of action.
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  #378  
Old 12-31-2013, 9:33 AM
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"Manipulation"? Looks like exactly what it is thin holiday trading.. Wouldn't take any meaning of the stock or pm market during the holidays. The big boys are on vacation. Gold ended Xmas eve at 1205 looks like it will end New years eve the same spot... On thin trading.. *yawn*
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  #379  
Old 12-31-2013, 10:40 AM
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March 30 Prediction
$1005 Gold
$16.2 silver
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  #380  
Old 01-01-2014, 6:42 PM
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Looks like tax loss selling is over and before our open we get silver up .90 cents and Gold up $20.

We go to the moon now, 10 yr treasury 3.03%

This party is just getting started now.
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  #381  
Old 01-03-2014, 6:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by glockman19 View Post
Gold and Silver will keep going down as the economy improves...the PM flight to safety play is over...until the next financial crisis.

But in the meantime I see gold dipping to around $1,000 in the first quarter 2014 and Silver as low as $15.

I don't see PM's as a good investment in the upcoming year or years...If the Fed continues to reduce bond purchases add interest rates rise, gold could drop to $800 and Silver back under $10.

I do NOT see Gold under any circumstance going over $1,300-$1,400 or Silver over $22.
I like risk, so I shorted the QQQ's yesterday, been long miners, hold some physical. I think we "may" be entering the perfect storm now for investments.

Nice to see PM's doing well the first two days of the New Year.

BTW I think I could think of tons of reasons we may see $1,500 Gold by say May 2014 or SOONER.
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  #382  
Old 01-03-2014, 7:04 AM
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Don't you think the Obama Admin is artificially supporting the market? That's ending soon.
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  #383  
Old 01-03-2014, 7:40 AM
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Originally Posted by johnniezombie View Post
Don't you think the Obama Admin is artificially supporting the market? That's ending soon.
I think ALL administrations have supported the markets. That's the nature of a fiat currency. Debt is created to supply an ever increasing amount of fiat in the system as "interest" can never be paid without the creation of new debt. All administrations have tried to hold the old 2.5%-3.5% inflation which is really added debt, to where we are now, worthless fiat with the expansion of debt needed now in the trillions. This is why ZIRP zero interest rate policy is a MUST.

It's over and everyone knows it. Well, most everyone who haven't been drinking the koolaid the media spews.
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  #384  
Old 01-03-2014, 8:08 AM
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I'm also going out on a VERY shaky limb and calling a rise in Gold to $1,300 by end of next week.

That's how the system works, sneeze and you're late to the party.
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  #385  
Old 01-03-2014, 8:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripon83 View Post
March 30 Prediction
$1005 Gold
$16.2 silver
Quote:
Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
BTW I think I could think of tons of reasons we may see $1,500 Gold by say May 2014 or SOONER.


:Sets calendar:
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  #386  
Old 01-03-2014, 8:51 AM
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"The cost to mine and produce an ounce of gold, on average, ranges from $1,100 to $1,250.. Some mines produce gold at a very affordable cost while others are now producing gold at costs that are higher than the metal is valued."
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconew...e-environment/

If this is true then we are getting gold at the cost to produce right now which does not sound like a bad deal to me. Eventually interest rates will have to rise to normal rates then our debt will be unsustainable. Who knows what the Gov. will do when they can't pay there bills. Probably something similar to Zimbabwe.
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  #387  
Old 01-03-2014, 10:24 AM
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All in costs are very nebelous and very high for public miners. For example, new exploration costs can easily be cut and mining existing ore becomes that much cheaper. Barrack mining has $44 billion in debt, if they declare bankruptcy tmw the bondholders take a haircut and get paid back at the newly discounted cost of production (very simplified way of looking at it). Gold was being mined just fine at $250 an ounce and people here need to think how that was possible...
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  #388  
Old 01-03-2014, 11:02 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
I'm also going out on a VERY shaky limb and calling a rise in Gold to $1,300 by end of next week.

That's how the system works, sneeze and you're late to the party.
I don't think missing a 10% move is the end of the world.

You can't time investments consistently and shouldn't have all your eggs in one basket. But you know that.
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  #389  
Old 01-03-2014, 6:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DTOM CA! View Post
"The cost to mine and produce an ounce of gold, on average, ranges from $1,100 to $1,250.. Some mines produce gold at a very affordable cost while others are now producing gold at costs that are higher than the metal is valued."
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kitconew...e-environment/

If this is true then we are getting gold at the cost to produce right now which does not sound like a bad deal to me. Eventually interest rates will have to rise to normal rates then our debt will be unsustainable. Who knows what the Gov. will do when they can't pay there bills. Probably something similar to Zimbabwe.
FYI cash cost != all-in costs.

Buying under avg cash cost = ok

Buying under The newly minted metric of "all-in" costs to justify a bunch of overleveraged public miners.... undetermined (optimistically, at best)
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  #390  
Old 01-03-2014, 7:39 PM
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The worlds largest gold mining country, China, produces 400 tonnes a year with slave labor and communist rule, yet they choose to purchase 600 tonnes more of over priced bullion on the world market at a huge premium. Gee I wonder why they are so foolish?

Smashy, you could sell them some at $250 an ounce?
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  #391  
Old 01-03-2014, 7:49 PM
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Originally Posted by glockman19 View Post
I agree...Gold to $1,200 and Silver to $20...possibly lower over the next month or two. I see a bottom at the end of May early June.

Crystal balls are great, aren't they?
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  #392  
Old 01-03-2014, 7:55 PM
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smashycrashy doesn't seem to understand that dozens of countries have hyperinflated themselves into collapse simply by printing too much worthless fiat currency. The U.S. is soon to join the club.

Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
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  #393  
Old 01-03-2014, 8:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
The worlds largest gold mining country, China, produces 400 tonnes a year with slave labor and communist rule, yet they choose to purchase 600 tonnes more of over priced bullion on the world market at a huge premium. Gee I wonder why they are so foolish?

Smashy, you could sell them some at $250 an ounce?


With all their Ghost cities and huge debt...


they need a lot of help....










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  #394  
Old 01-04-2014, 1:07 AM
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Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
The worlds largest gold mining country, China, produces 400 tonnes a year with slave labor and communist rule, yet they choose to purchase 600 tonnes more of over priced bullion on the world market at a huge premium. Gee I wonder why they are so foolish?
Are they buying coins for investment or jewellery for consumption? (hint: it's jewellery)

It's a reflection of a growing middle and upper class trying to be d-bags and display wealth. Not a SHTF gold is the ultimate currency play.

Now if you want to make a case regarding china growing d-bag population as supportive for the price of gold, you have could have a case.. but not a very compelling one.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
Smashy, you could sell them some at $250 an ounce?
Did you ask yourself how they were supplying 100 million troy ounces when a troy ounce was $250? That wasn't very long ago.......

Fact is there are a lot of overleveraged miners in the world who made a bunch of decisions that look smart at $1900 an ounce.. their equity (hint: Don't hold their stocks) and bond holders (another hint: Don't hold their bonds) will be paying for that. When the smoke clears you'll see even the cash cost drop as the industry is consolidated and operators of scale take over small scale mines. You'll still be wondering how they could possibly be producing at such a "low" price.
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  #395  
Old 01-04-2014, 1:25 AM
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Originally Posted by Armando de la Guerra View Post
smashycrashy doesn't seem to understand that dozens of countries have hyperinflated themselves into collapse simply by printing too much worthless fiat currency.
Of any major country that you claim has hyperinflated themselves.. go get a wheelbarrow full of their currency. Should be a trivial exercise as their currency is worthless.

You'll be unable to and you should ask yourself why...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Armando de la Guerra View Post
The U.S. is soon to join the club.
Same as above...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Armando de la Guerra View Post
Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it.
You're right... You might want to read your history books and learn some metrics to determine exactly where we are relative to that. Because I believe the mistake you're making lies there...
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  #396  
Old 01-04-2014, 6:14 AM
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When Silver is say, $15.00 per ounce what would be the Mark up on Morgans? I don't mind circulated...
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  #397  
Old 01-04-2014, 9:10 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smashycrashy View Post
Are they buying coins for investment or jewellery for consumption? (hint: it's jewellery)

It's a reflection of a growing middle and upper class trying to be d-bags and display wealth. Not a SHTF gold is the ultimate currency play.

Now if you want to make a case regarding china growing d-bag population as supportive for the price of gold, you have could have a case.. but not a very compelling one.



Did you ask yourself how they were supplying 100 million troy ounces when a troy ounce was $250? That wasn't very long ago.......

Fact is there are a lot of overleveraged miners in the world who made a bunch of decisions that look smart at $1900 an ounce.. their equity (hint: Don't hold their stocks) and bond holders (another hint: Don't hold their bonds) will be paying for that. When the smoke clears you'll see even the cash cost drop as the industry is consolidated and operators of scale take over small scale mines. You'll still be wondering how they could possibly be producing at such a "low" price.
I did a little investigation as I don't think your theory holds much water. Consolidation has always been happening in the mining industry over the last 20 years. Everyone wants a get rich scheme and is willing to toss other peoples money at it.

I went back and looked at Barrick in 2000/2001, they were profitable at $340 gold price. They also had tremendous proven and probable reserves. They forward sold their reserves, thus gaining price appreciation. They ate companies who couldn't make the grade. BUT their property plant and equip has ballooned from those days almost 10 fold, from 3.9 bill to over 30 billion. I will let you figure out why but I am here to tell you, you cannot even think of having the same expenses managing small vs huge. Production costs, environmental costs, employment costs, merger & acquisition costs to name a few will be ever increasing on your bottom line.

Plus there is always a wealth effect in business. When businesses grow you can be damned sure the boys at the top go from lunch at Marie Calenders to having Kobe Beef and Ahi tuna flown in to their favorite watering hole. Nobody's driving Caddie's anymore, that's success.

I doubt there is one miner today who could survive at $250 gold for more than a few years without huge debt. I will conceed I did see one small mine that could produce an oz. at $30 in 2000 at Barrick. You can bet it was one helluva vein where even I could swing a pick and grab dee GOLD.

I think today you are mostly looking at 1 ton of dirt to crush and chemically extract 1 gram of gold. Don't injure yourself, workers comp claims are expensive. Have at it my brother, Gold is worth the price of admission imo.

Last edited by sixoclockhold; 01-04-2014 at 9:17 AM..
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Old 01-04-2014, 9:46 AM
smashycrashy smashycrashy is offline
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Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
I did a little investigation as I don't think your theory holds much water.
You clearly didn't look very hard.

There is cash cost per ounce.

Lets say for a single mine that is $600

There is "all-in" cost per ounce..

Lets say that is $1200.

Many of the "all-in" cost can almost go to zero in bankruptcy.

What is more likely to happen is that all-in costs are reduced as the price lowers.. but they hit a limit on things like interest costs. Those will have to be defaulted and/or renegotiated. New equity (diluting existing shareholders) may be issued in lieu of payments, or just bondholders take haircuts because getting something is better then nothing.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
I doubt there is one miner today who could survive at $250 gold for more than a few years without huge debt
Again, you clearly only look for facts that match your little world. For some mines gold is merely a by-product of doing business.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41058173

Quote:
Gold Resource is projecting cash cost of “zero” in 2011 on production of 90,000 ounces. And Yamana Gold, which John says produced over 1 million ounces in 2010 at a cash cost of $102 per ounce making it the lowest cost, large producer.
There has been massive capital poured into gold mining and exploration.. not all those people who poured the money will be getting their money back (bondholders, shareholders, owners/management, suppliers)... that all cuts the cost of gold. Meanwhile the capital expenditures still have happened..
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Old 01-04-2014, 10:17 AM
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Default 600 tones

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Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
The worlds largest gold mining country, China, produces 400 tonnes a year with slave labor and communist rule, yet they choose to purchase 600 tonnes more of over priced bullion on the world market at a huge premium. Gee I wonder why they are so foolish?

Smashy, you could sell them some at $250 an ounce?
Is about $20-25 billion in today's market. Their economy is annually about 12-15 trillion? This isn't even a sneeze fest. Maybe they buy it to keep the slaves fed?
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Old 01-04-2014, 10:20 AM
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Default Worn Coins

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Originally Posted by cudakidd View Post
When Silver is say, $15.00 per ounce what would be the Mark up on Morgans? I don't mind circulated...
Pre 64 silver US coins are almost always a little worn and as such even loose a tiny sum of weight (silver). This is why you see companies putting up signs saying "buy gold / silver" and they pay 50/70% of the spot value. I have numerous times posted ads on craigslist offering to buy pre-64 silver coins for 80% of coinflation value and almost always have more sellers than I have cash - but then I never keep a lot of cash for that purpose. Still you can buy pre - 64 coins and morgans for probably 80-85% of bullion spot value if you try.
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