This Is Why Fauci Isn't President and Why He Doesn't Make The Decisions

[TrappedinCalifornia]

Fauci: The US is still in the first wave of COVID-19

...“I look at it more as an elongated — and an exacerbation of — the original first wave,” Fauci said.

He explained that while the Northeast has been able to reduce its outbreak, the national baseline never fell to a more manageable number like 10,000 cases per day. Instead it’s stayed high at about 20,000 cases per day.

In addition, for areas which chose to open up after the initial brief national lockdown, some states did not follow strict guidelines.

“We started to see a peak that brought us up to around 70,000 per day,” Fauci said, adding that, “Now as we're getting into the cold weather, we came back up again to the worst that we've ever had, which was over 80,000 per day.”...

The U.S. is more like Europe as a whole than Europe as represented by viewing a series of independent countries. Sweden is slightly smaller than California with 1/4 of California's population. Spain is just barely larger than California with 6 - 7 million more people. Right on down the list. Yet, the U.S. cannot act like a single entity anymore than Europe can, even with the E.U. In some respects, the U.S. has even greater restrictions than does the E.U.

In a sense, while each State has been allocated the power and authority to deal individually with a pandemic, they are still 'answerable' to a Federal Government, but more interdependent in the sense of mobility and less able to shut down State borders. Likewise, Americans have a Constitution which allows for more independence among the citizenry than many/most European countries and that Constitution, along with the various Constitutions of the States have restrictions on what Government, at all levels, can do, even in a pandemic. (This is particularly true if you want to compare it to China and their ability to, according to their media, 'control' the COVID virus.)

It's been clear from the beginning that Fauci has been unable to wrap his mind around the idea that he's NOT in charge of everything and everyone, for a variety of reasons. This latest statement indicates that he's unable to comprehend the U.S. as a variety of regions which are, in some respects, radically different based on physical geography, population, economics, etc. In some respects, it's precisely why there is no, single authority over everything and everyone and why we have a representative form of democracy rather than a 'pure' or direct democracy.

It's also why there is no one-size-fits-all, blanket policy that would have or will work. Not only can't the U.S. economy be completely shut down as a practical matter, I don't think it could be simultaneously shut down in that the U.S. States and their various districts wouldn't have it. It's something we saw, early on in the pandemic, here in California. The entirety of California refused to be shuttered simply because of the rise in cases in the Bay Area and Los Angeles. It's part of why even California gradually moved to a County by County approach, as screwy as that approach is.

The same applies here. You can't use a 'baseline' for the country as a whole and say... "See. I told you so. Now, if we'd just shut it all down..." But, that's exactly what Fauci is doing. It's why many have called for a more 'targeted' approach; both in terms of protecting portions of the population and based on regional numbers. Yet, as quoted from the article: "Fauci also said it boils down to semantics."

This is why you keep seeing him call for a national mask mandate, shutting 'everything' down, etc. He views the U.S. as a single entity rather than a grouping of unique regions. The problem is those unique attributes, in many ways, negate many of the 'advantages' of the approach he advocates, not to mention the ability to implement such an approach. While you may get certain population groups to adhere to universal mask mandates for a certain period of time, you will not get all of the population throughout the entire country to do so, even for a certain period of time.

Kinda like we've seen with South Dakota. Or... Maybe... Depending on your perspective... Along the lines of...



Proponents of shut it all down, have every manufacturer produce nothing but PPE, wear nothing but an N95 mask 24/7... pretty much see things as Fauci does; i.e., a perception which is inconsistent with why we are referred to as the United States and not, say... China. When you have absolute control, you have the ability to control things, more or less, absolutely. In the United States, we don't allow that, despite how we think of entities such as the IRS, the Supreme Court, the President, or the head of NIAID.

What I think is telling is the last section of the article...

Dr. Shira Doron, an infectious disease physician at Tufts Medical Center echoed Fauci's declaration of an elongated first wave.

“Only when looking back at the shape of a curve can you truly call something a peak or wave. It’s also important to mention that the overall U.S. graph looks very different than individual state graphs,” Doron said.

“The U.S. as a whole, however, never declined to low levels after its first peak, which is why some people say we are still in the ‘first wave,’” she said.

“Overall, I think it’s more a matter of semantics than something scientific.”

At least she acknowledges that each region (at least if you view a "State" as a region) is unique and the overall numbers don't necessarily reflect that uniqueness. It's also critical to note that she's acknowledging, intentionally or not, that the blanket policies (and pronouncements) being pushed appear to be based on something other than actual science.

[sd_shooter]

Thanks OP!

Originally Posted by TrappedinCalifornia

<snip>
Proponents of shut it all down, have every manufacturer produce nothing but PPE, wear nothing but an N95 mask 24/7... pretty much see things as Fauci does; i.e., a perception which is inconsistent with why we are referred to as the United States and not, say... China. When you have absolute control, you have the ability to control things, more or less, absolutely. In the United States, we don't allow that, despite how we think of entities such as the IRS, the Supreme Court, the President, or the head of NIAID.<snip>

Nail, meet hammer

[duenor]

how to find the size of your screen
Take a look at that graph. That's US cases since March 02. Notice how we never went under 20,000 cases a day. Now compare that to the same cases graph, for Australia. Note the difference in shape.

how to find the size of your screen
or, for an example of what a country now hitting a second wave might look like, the United Kingdom:

how to find the size of your screen
There's likely the stark answer to all of your speculation right there.

[sd_shooter]

Cases are 'spiking' here in the USA

Deaths are falling.... where's the lag?

[el tardo]

Are you really trying to troll us or are you really that naïve and you’re scared of COVID-19? You do realize it has a 99% survival rate right?

Originally Posted by duenor

how to find the size of your screen
Take a look at that graph. That's US cases since March 02. Notice how we never went under 20,000 cases a day. Now compare that to the same cases graph, for Australia. Note the difference in shape.

how to find the size of your screen
or, for an example of what a country now hitting a second wave might look like, the United Kingdom:

how to find the size of your screen
There's likely the stark answer to all of your speculation right there.

[el tardo]

What’s really funny is you love to post all these graphs but you don’t realize your graphs are so flawed because the testing they’re using has a 70% false positives. So we really don’t know what the true numbers are but we do know that we’re being bull****ted by everyone that’s against President Trump and that’s what this is really about. Because again COVID-19 has actually killed less people than the flu does every year and with a 99% to survival rate have nothing to worry about site at this point it’s all propaganda we are fed lies

Originally Posted by duenor

how to find the size of your screen
Take a look at that graph. That's US cases since March 02. Notice how we never went under 20,000 cases a day. Now compare that to the same cases graph, for Australia. Note the difference in shape.

how to find the size of your screen
or, for an example of what a country now hitting a second wave might look like, the United Kingdom:

how to find the size of your screen
There's likely the stark answer to all of your speculation right there.

[sd_shooter]

Originally Posted by el tardo

What’s really funny is you love to post all these graphs but you don’t realize your graphs are so flawed because the testing they’re using has a 70% false positives. So we really don’t know what the true numbers are but we do know that we’re being bull****ted by everyone that’s against President Trump and that’s what this is really about. Because again COVID-19 has actually killed less people than the flu does every year and with a 99% to survival rate have nothing to worry about site at this point it’s all propaganda we are fed lies

Not to mention double & triple counting. They don't check your ID or take your SS number at many of the testing sites. You can be a fresh 'case' every time you visit.

[TrappedinCalifornia]

Originally Posted by duenor

...There's likely the stark answer to all of your speculation right there.

Ignoring the debate over statistics, this is what happens when you parse out a tiny piece of something, then entirely ignore the context.

As a starter, Australia's population is roughly 25 million. The United States, as a whole, has a population of approximately 328 million. The distribution of the population is decidedly different...





There's also the fact that Australia is more isolated than the U.S.

Then there's... Comparing The American And Australian Political Systems... Short version... There are similarities, but some decided differences; meaning Australia can do things which the U.S. is precluded from. (One of the things that site doesn't note is the difference in healthcare systems; i.e., Australia has 'universal healthcare,' whereas, in the U.S., many individuals have to be concerned about the costs as individuals.)

In a sense, it's not just apples to oranges. It's apples to broccoli. Or, as I noted in the OP...

Originally Posted by TrappedinCalifornia

It's been clear from the beginning that Fauci has been unable to wrap his mind around the idea that he's NOT in charge of everything and everyone, for a variety of reasons. This latest statement indicates that he's unable to comprehend the U.S. as a variety of regions which are, in some respects, radically different based on physical geography, population, economics, etc.

[duenor]

Originally Posted by TrappedinCalifornia

Ignoring the debate over statistics, this is what happens when you parse out a tiny piece of something, then entirely ignore the context.

You are arguing the differences between AUS and USA. I don't dispute that they are different, but that isn't the point I was making. You post suggests disbelief regarding Fauci's assertion that the US is still in its first wave of COVID19. The graphs depict the difference between a nation (ours) which has been unable to suppress its first wave and thus remains in it, and one which did suppress the first wave (AUS). I could have chosen a number of other similar countries - UK, France, Italy, etc. Alternatively, I could have chosen a nation like Brazil, which like the US remains in its first wave.

[jackw007]

Originally Posted by duenor

how to find the size of your screen
Take a look at that graph. That's US cases since March 02. Notice how we never went under 20,000 cases a day. Now compare that to the same cases graph, for Australia. Note the difference in shape.

how to find the size of your screen
or, for an example of what a country now hitting a second wave might look like, the United Kingdom:

how to find the size of your screen
There's likely the stark answer to all of your speculation right there.

Actually, look at it from a different perspective. Think about the absolute panic that was going on in March, how everyone thought that you would drop over dead as soon as you had the virus, and when images of bodies in refrigerators - because funeral homes were not permitted to accept them - were being portrayed as resulting from overwhelming death rates beyond the capacity to deal with. When Cuomo shrieked that this is what everyone will look like in 2 or 3 weeks.

Fast forward to today where the rate of "cases" everywhere is now far beyond March. Across Europe the rates are two and three times that of March. And is the panic level the same? Not even close.

So everyone should think for themselves for a change, and realize a few things:

• Lockdowns did not "stop" the virus
• The vulnerable populations are well understood
• Any governmental epidemiologist like Fauci has a specific purpose in a pandemic - to study a disease and report the nature and risk of that disease - and epidemiologists are simply one source of input to decision makers
• Government officials should then gather information from numerous other sources, medical and otherwise, in order to chart a course of action and to disseminate information to the public about the risks of the disease, and recommendations as to how to protect themselves
• Government should then work with medical interests to create treatments for the disease, and to reallocate resources if necessary to meet localized outbreaks
• It is then up to the public to decide which risks are acceptable in the normal course of their lives

Instead, we panicked over hysteria created by a news media doing what the news media does, exacerbated by the fact that the worst outbreak was occurring in the absolute heart of the media industry. As things quickly became politicized by your local government and their enablers in that same media, we lost sight of the fact that the only thing that a bureaucracy can guarantee is incompetence, and that we need to treat the declarations of anyone in the bureaucracy as simply one solitary data point in our own decision making.

This includes Anthony Fauci. He's worth no more than one data point. And a "scientist" like Fauci should never be the "decision maker".

[elSquid]

Germany was lauded for their contract tracing program and their approach to COVID. While the media condemned Sweden, they held up Germany as the example to follow.

Well, things are now spiralling out of control in Germany. The number of tests being run over the last two months have averaged about a million a week, and positivity rates are going exponential. There have been mask mandates in the various regions for a while.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...in-covid-fight

— Michael

[sd_shooter]

Only Sweden got it right with their laissez-faire approach to this flu-like virus that is a close cousin of the common cold

[duenor]

Originally Posted by jackw007

Any governmental epidemiologist like Fauci has a specific purpose in a pandemic - to study a disease and report the nature and risk of that disease - and epidemiologists are simply one source of input to decision makers and to the people of the United States, for whom they serve

Sure, with an added clause.

It is then up to the public to decide which risks are acceptable in the normal course of their lives

While I am very much inclined toward liberatarianism, I think that this statement is overly simple. An absolute "everyone is free to do whatever they feel is best" runs into problems when you consider that people who get sick don't just throw up their hands and say, "well, I chose my bed, so now I lie in it." Instead, most want and expect help - whether from family, friends, government. In doing so, they take up resources and create further risk elements within the community. Where the line between individual freedom and societal responsibility lies is something for each nation's peoples and its leaders to decide for itself.

This includes Anthony Fauci. He's worth no more than one data point. And a "scientist" like Fauci should never be the "decision maker".

He isn't. He barely even has the ear of this federal administration.

[sd_shooter]

Originally Posted by duenor

<snip>
He isn't. He barely even has the ear of this federal administration.

But he's out there blabbing to CNN/MSNBC on the daily

[lp3056]

Originally Posted by sd_shooter

Not to mention double & triple counting. They don't check your ID or take your SS number at many of the testing sites. You can be a fresh 'case' every time you visit.

Not also the number of tests we are performing. If our testing remained constant I believe the numbers would have dropped below 20K. What has the infection rate been...that might be relevant.

Right now L.A. County is at 3.4. We used to be over 9%. Infection rate might be a better judge.

[Bralowe]

Originally Posted by sd_shooter

But he's out there blabbing to CNN/MSNBC on the daily

This does expose his obvious political agenda

[duenor]

Originally Posted by sd_shooter

But he's out there blabbing to CNN/MSNBC on the daily

Any governmental epidemiologist like Fauci has a specific purpose in a pandemic - to study a disease and report the nature and risk of that disease - and epidemiologists are simply one source of input to decision makers and to the people of the United States, for whom they serve

[larkja]

What we really need to be focusing on is the death rate. I would think we would want people to catch the virus so we build up an immunity and this thing goes away. The more we shelter, the more "waves" we're going to have. What we don't want is for people to die from it.

It seems as if the therapeutics to combat the virus are much better now, which means that 99.4% survival rate is actually higher now than in the beginning.

[TrappedinCalifornia]

Originally Posted by duenor

You are arguing the differences between AUS and USA. I don't dispute that they are different, but that isn't the point I was making. You post suggests disbelief regarding Fauci's assertion that the US is still in its first wave of COVID19. The graphs depict the difference between a nation (ours) which has been unable to suppress its first wave and thus remains in it, and one which did suppress the first wave (AUS). I could have chosen a number of other similar countries - UK, France, Italy, etc. Alternatively, I could have chosen a nation like Brazil, which like the US remains in its first wave.

As I said, this is what happens when you parse out a tiny piece of something, then entirely ignore the context.

Where in the OP did I dispute Fauci's assertion that the US is still in its first wave? In fact, I added the portion where another infectious disease physician "echoed Fauci's declaration of an elongated first wave."

My argument is exactly what I said; i.e., that Fauci is incapable of nuance or, more accurately, incapable of seeing the U.S. as anything but a single entity, with little, if any, differences based on region, population, etc. Thus, his 'answers' are almost universally one-size-fits-all, blanket options which cannot be implemented or implemented meaningfully on a national basis and are not necessarily relevant to individual regions within the country. This has been part of the tension between he and Trump from the beginning. As you say...

Originally Posted by duenor

Any governmental epidemiologist like Fauci has a specific purpose in a pandemic - to study a disease and report the nature and risk of that disease...

Their duty to 'report' is not so much to We the People, but to those who make the decisions. What duty they have to report to We the People is factual, not speculative; something we've already extensively discussed.

Originally Posted by duenor

...and epidemiologists are simply one source of input to decision makers and to the people of the United States, for whom they serve

Instead, Fauci has been consistently presenting speculation or as he phrases it, his opinion. The problem is, his opinion is just that... his opinion and it is, as you note, ONE piece of input. Worse. His 'opinion' is almost always couched in criticism that "they" (whomever "they" are at that moment) aren't adhering to his opinion on how things should be done. Just like here...

It’s been “several months” since President Donald Trump met with the White House coronavirus task force, said Anthony Fauci, the top U.S. infectious disease expert, who’s faced repeated criticism from the president...

...the task force now meets about once a week, versus its daily gatherings early in the pandemic. The team also holds a regular call with governors, and its medical experts meet virtually as well, Fauci said.

But Fauci said it had been “a while” since he’d spoken with Trump directly about Covid strategy...

“I definitely don’t have his ear as much as Scott Atlas right now, that has been a changing situation,” Fauci said. “We certainly interact with the vice president at the task force meetings, and the vice president makes our feelings and what we talk about there known to the president.”

“But direct involvement with the president in discussions -- I have not done that in a while,” Fauci said, adding that it had been “several months” since Trump attended a task force meeting...

So... He's out 'suggesting' that Trump isn't doing his job, despite the fact that meeting with and following Fauci's input specifically isn't necessarily his job. In fact, Trump is actually doing exactly his job; i.e., not necessarily meeting with the 'experts' himself, but allowing his selected group to meet with them, then sift through and communicate the necessary information to him. Did he say, outright, that Trump wasn't doing his job? No. But, as I've now noted with you, context is important and the context of Fauci's statement is quite clear, doesn't have to be parsed or 'read into,' and doesn't need much by way of 'interpretation;' i.e., the underlying 'message' being that Trump is not meeting with me or heeding me specifically, thus he's out-of-touch with what you term "the nature and risk of that disease."

Unsurprisingly, that's been your underlying message as well throughout the threads; i.e., that the Government (and Trump specifically) should have done X, Y, and Z to be 'correctly' handling things. The problem is that, as you correctly indicate, Fauci is just one source of input and many other experts (e.g., 'sources of input') disagree with him. A major part of that disagreement stems from exactly what I indicated in the OP... Fauci views the U.S. as a single entity rather than a grouping of unique regions. The problem is those unique attributes, in many ways, negate many of the 'advantages' of the approach he advocates, not to mention hindering the ability to implement such an approach.

The 'criticism' I have in his arguing that it's 'semantics' to say it's still the first wave vs. a second or third wave is in what I quoted from the second physician in the article. While she was also looking nationwide, the reality is that you have to recognize: "It’s also important to mention that the overall U.S. graph looks very different than individual state graphs..." For those hung up on a 'national view,' that means that some states may, in fact, be in their second or third wave, even if the 'national view' doesn't necessarily indicate such given that you've thrown every region and the entirety of the population into a single pot. As I put it in the OP...

Originally Posted by TrappedinCalifornia

At least she acknowledges that each region (at least if you view a "State" as a region) is unique and the overall numbers don't necessarily reflect that uniqueness. It's also critical to note that she's acknowledging, intentionally or not, that the blanket policies (and pronouncements) being pushed appear to be based on something other than actual science.

You then throw out comparison graphs between countries... countries which are uniquely different from each other and don't necessarily represent valid similarities, just in terms of the diversity involved from a population dispersion/density aspect, let alone the cultural/social/economic differences. As a result, any such graphs are of limited value and utility in terms of providing insight into dealing with the virus in THIS country, a country which, in many ways which matter, is decidedly unique; something you acknowledge while calling for upending the entire economy to producing nothing but... and universal mask wearing (while noting that not everyone is going to comply, negating the impact of mask wearing) and criticizing Trump for not 'listening' or doing what YOU think is best.

Put another way, you are, once again, parsing and deflecting to argue a strawman. As I said to you, several months ago, rather than parsing out a single piece of it, read the entirety and try to absorb it. I know you 'lionize' Fauci and take it as a personal affront any time the least criticism is levied against him. But, Fauci has a series of issues which has progressively put him in a position where he is becoming useless as both the spokesman and "the" person to be deferred to regarding this disease. It's also why Fauci is not the decision-maker, Trump is; i.e., one has to have a much broader and nuanced view than Fauci has repeatedly demonstrated he's capable of achieving.

[Scota4570]

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...veillance.html

"Case" means little. Read the link. It has a lot of answers to things we argue about here. Pay particular attention to how a "case is defined". It is ridiculious.

Per the CDC themselves:

"Why are we seeing a rise in cases?"

The rise in the number of COVID-19 cases reflects the rapid community spread of COVID-19 in many U.S. states, territories and communities. Community spread means people have been infected with the virus in an area, including some who are not sure how or where they became infected. Also, the number of cases of COVID-19 being reported in the United States is rising due to increased laboratory testing and reporting across the country.

The only part of that that actually means anything is "due to increased laboratory testing".

[sd_shooter]

If I'm reading the referenced PDF file correctly, per section A1 all it takes for a covid positive diagnosis: Patient tells doctor on a zoom call that they have a cough. Or, they can have a headache _and_ sore throat, that's also 'covid.'

Sounds rather cold-like

Originally Posted by Scota4570

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...veillance.html

"Case" means little. Read the link. It has a lot of answers to things we argue about here. Pay particular attention to how a "case is defined". It is ridiculious.

Per the CDC themselves:

"Why are we seeing a rise in cases?"

The rise in the number of COVID-19 cases reflects the rapid community spread of COVID-19 in many U.S. states, territories and communities. Community spread means people have been infected with the virus in an area, including some who are not sure how or where they became infected. Also, the number of cases of COVID-19 being reported in the United States is rising due to increased laboratory testing and reporting across the country.

The only part of that that actually means anything is "due to increased laboratory testing".

[Scota4570]

Yes!

According to the CDC criteria a hangover could be counted as a covid case. Having a headache and myalgia (muscle soreness) meets the criterial, so, a hangover meets the clinical cor a covid case.

"At least two of the following symptoms: fever (measured or subjective), chills, rigors, myalgia, headache, sore throat, new olfactory and taste disorder(s)"