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Coronavirus/COVID19 Temp Forum This is a temporary forum for discussion, debate, sharing and helping each other during and in relation to the Coronavirus/COVID19

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  #121  
Old 04-10-2020, 3:51 PM
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Originally Posted by capo View Post
Totally understood, I have studied both economics and biology. My question really then becomes what does that look like?

People seem to want to discuss economics as a completely separate issue from the medical one but that's not how it works. Epidemics bring about fear which stops economic activity in and of itself, you don't have one without the other. Suggestions that we 'open back up' will simply resolve our economic slowdown doesn't really make a damn bit of sense when one looks at the whole picture, people won't just go back to work and act as though nothing is happening when clearly something is happening.

There is no easy answer. A real challenge is the time lags. It takes time for an exposure to turn into a positive case and it can be as long as three weeks or more before cases resolve one way or another. How much do we relax? If it's too much R_0 goes way back up and we are into high exponential growth again. We don't want that.

I just know that if we keep on lockdown until the virus goes away, we will never get there.

We really need millions of serological tests so we can gauge where we are in with respect to herd immunity. There is a report that the Germans have found 15% ion one city.
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  #122  
Old 04-10-2020, 3:57 PM
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Originally Posted by cleonard View Post
It's really an economic issue.
How much is a human life worth? Unless you can answer that question saying the issue at hand is primarily economic in nature is not correct.
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  #123  
Old 04-10-2020, 4:03 PM
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Originally Posted by cleonard View Post
There is no easy answer. A real challenge is the time lags. It takes time for an exposure to turn into a positive case and it can be as long as three weeks or more before cases resolve one way or another. How much do we relax? If it's too much R_0 goes way back up and we are into high exponential growth again. We don't want that.

I just know that if we keep on lockdown until the virus goes away, we will never get there.

We really need millions of serological tests so we can gauge where we are in with respect to herd immunity. There is a report that the Germans have found 15% ion one city.
Yes, and that's where the rubber meets the road.

Lots of people want to armchair quarterback this, to second guess decisions being made and complain about them. Few actually have any considered alternatives and none seem especially confident about them.

Yet we have thread after thread about how stupid the politicians are, how stupid the scientists are, how stupid the public at large is for going along with best laid plans.

It's all pretty ridiculous when you look at the big picture. This whole thing has exposed more about how short sighted the average person is and how little scientific knowledge they have than exposing anything else.
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  #124  
Old 04-10-2020, 4:10 PM
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How much is a human life worth? Unless you can answer that question saying the issue at hand is primarily economic in nature is not correct.
You missed my point. If the goal goal is to minimize the loss of life from the virus and the loss of life due to economic downturn. Keeping us all in lock-down until a vaccine is available is almost for sure not going to give the minimum body count.

It is very likely that pretty much all of us will get this virus unless we keep the lock-down until the vaccine is available. We all starve then. How do people pay rent or buy food for 18 months with no jobs.
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  #125  
Old 04-10-2020, 4:12 PM
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How much is a human life worth? .
Apparently the answer is, how much do you have?

While posts on these forums may look cavalier, they are not. This is a serious issue. This covid will end, another will emerge. And then another. But the debt isn’t going away. Ever.

And did I miss a point about saving lives? I thought the shutdown was to flatten the curve so we could manage the inevitable?
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  #126  
Old 04-10-2020, 4:17 PM
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Originally Posted by zhyla View Post
How much is a human life worth? Unless you can answer that question saying the issue at hand is primarily economic in nature is not correct.
This is liberal media lunacy. There is no binary choice here between death and no death.

Every time you get in the car you put a price on your life. The risk of driving is outweighed by the convenince of driving. You could walk, but you might get hit by a bus.

Airtravel is the same, and everyone does this every day in a million ways.

Take a shower? Might fall down and die, but it's worth the risk to conviently clean ones self.

Walking across the street even qualifies, whatever lies on the other side is worth the risk that you might be run over and die.

What you present as an either or choice is framed dishonestly so you can then attack someone for wanting people to die, and that is an outright lie.

The reality is it's a choice between two very bad options, but that's the choice and each has negative impact. I happen to believe the negative impact of the lockdown will far outweigh the impact of the virus in death toll and economic damage.

16 million people are out of work. If a tiny fraction of that commits suicide you are far above the death toll of the virus. People are going to start flipping out and hurting each other cabin fever style.

But hey, you keep pushing the false media narrative of a binary choice, you gotta do you so push that propaganda. Hopefully the sane arguments can prevent you from harming to many people with that.
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When the middle east descends into complete chaos in 2-3 years due in part to the actions of this administration I'll necro post about how clueless I was.
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  #127  
Old 04-10-2020, 4:26 PM
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Originally Posted by SAN compnerd View Post
This is liberal media lunacy. There is no binary choice here between death and no death.

Every time you get in the car you put a price on your life. The risk of driving is outweighed by the convenince of driving. You could walk, but you might get hit by a bus.

Airtravel is the same, and everyone does this every day in a million ways.

Take a shower? Might fall down and die, but it's worth the risk to conviently clean ones self.

Walking across the street even qualifies, whatever lies on the other side is worth the risk that you might be run over and die.

What you present as an either or choice is framed dishonestly so you can then attack someone for wanting people to die, and that is an outright lie.

The reality is it's a choice between two very bad options, but that's the choice and each has negative impact. I happen to believe the negative impact of the lockdown will far outweigh the impact of the virus in death toll and economic damage.

16 million people are out of work. If a tiny fraction of that commits suicide you are far above the death toll of the virus. People are going to start flipping out and hurting each other cabin fever style.

But hey, you keep pushing the false media narrative of a binary choice, you gotta do you so push that propaganda. Hopefully the sane arguments can prevent you from harming to many people with that.

Agree.

Once the rioting & looting starts - and the longer these lockdowns go on, the chances skyrocket - more people will die than in 5 years of this flu.

Like I said before, bears repeating; it's a big crap sandwich & we all have to take a bite.


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  #128  
Old 04-10-2020, 4:42 PM
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Originally Posted by SAN compnerd View Post
This is liberal media lunacy. There is no binary choice here between death and no death.
So? Sure, everybody dies. That's irrelevant. There is a tradeoff here between doing things to prevent (mostly old) people dying and preserving short term economic prosperity.

You should try to come up with how many dollars an elderly American's life is worth. If it's $1 then we should do nothing. If it's $500M then we should do anything we can. Our governments are currently acting somewhere in between.
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  #129  
Old 04-10-2020, 4:53 PM
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Originally Posted by zhyla View Post
So? Sure, everybody dies. That's irrelevant. There is a tradeoff here between doing things to prevent (mostly old) people dying and preserving short term economic prosperity.

You should try to come up with how many dollars an elderly American's life is worth. If it's $1 then we should do nothing. If it's $500M then we should do anything we can. Our governments are currently acting somewhere in between.

You could just say: "What difference, at this point, does it make".

well, here's something:

Quote:
The researchers found that there had been an increase in the relative risk of suicide associated with unemployment across all regions of 20% to 30%. There were an estimated 233,000 suicides a year between 2000-11, of which around 45,000 could be attributed to unemployment. In 2007, the year before the crash, there were 41,148 identified cases of suicide. In 2009, this number had risen to 46,131 – an increase of 4,983 or 12%.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/...t-and-suicide/
but hey, "a single death is a tragedy, a million deaths are a statistic” and any means are justified if it ends up in getting Orange out of office.
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  #130  
Old 04-10-2020, 5:07 PM
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Originally Posted by zhyla View Post
So? Sure, everybody dies. That's irrelevant. There is a tradeoff here between doing things to prevent (mostly old) people dying and preserving short term economic prosperity.

You should try to come up with how many dollars an elderly American's life is worth. If it's $1 then we should do nothing. If it's $500M then we should do anything we can. Our governments are currently acting somewhere in between.
You know that's actually been done right?
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  #131  
Old 04-11-2020, 10:45 AM
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Originally Posted by zhyla View Post
So? Sure, everybody dies. That's irrelevant. There is a tradeoff here between doing things to prevent (mostly old) people dying and preserving short term economic prosperity.

You should try to come up with how many dollars an elderly American's life is worth. If it's $1 then we should do nothing. If it's $500M then we should do anything we can. Our governments are currently acting somewhere in between.
Again you frame the question in such a dishonest way. Would you make that same sort of comparison about lives lost to abortion?

It's total bull to frame this as preserving short term economic activity, we've been in a 'short term' economic shutdown for a month now.

The lines for people looking for food aid in California due to the hardship caused by the 'short term' economic shutdown are longer than the lines for WuFlu testing.

Everyone posting here puts a value on their life every day including you when you get on/in a car/bus/plane/shower etc, etc.

But you have managed to alinskyize the question into something subversive that's not at all helpful to the conversation, but then again, that is your purpose here, subversion vs helpful constructive comments.

The rest of us aren't fooled by your ridiculous rhetoric.
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When the middle east descends into complete chaos in 2-3 years due in part to the actions of this administration I'll necro post about how clueless I was.
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  #132  
Old 04-11-2020, 10:57 AM
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Originally Posted by SAN compnerd View Post
The reality is it's a choice between two very bad options, but that's the choice and each has negative impact. I happen to believe the negative impact of the lockdown will far outweigh the impact of the virus in death toll and economic damage.

16 million people are out of work. If a tiny fraction of that commits suicide you are far above the death toll of the virus. People are going to start flipping out and hurting each other cabin fever style.
The 16 million is just the first three weeks of this lockdown, wait until we hear about this week's number of unemployed, and then the next week. It is a given that we're at double-digit unemployment, approaching Depression numbers.

Not just suicides, but unemployment and poverty bring illness and deaths, always and everywhere. Treatable diseases get worse in low income and poverty-stricken places. Same with diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, etc.

To say that the govt. forced economic shutdown is worse than the virus is an extreme understatement.
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  #133  
Old 04-11-2020, 11:15 AM
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To say that the govt. forced economic shutdown is worse than the virus is an extreme understatement.
Not according to Chicken Little...
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  #134  
Old 04-11-2020, 11:29 AM
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I thought this thread was supposed to be a sane assessment?
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  #135  
Old 04-11-2020, 12:16 PM
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You should try to come up with how many dollars an elderly American's life is worth. If it's $1 then we should do nothing. If it's $500M then we should do anything we can. Our governments are currently acting somewhere in between.
As I stated in other threads, the Federal Government already has models that value human life in economic terms. Insurance companies do this as well. In undergrad I had a semester internship at an insurance company working in their actuarial science group, boring job.

Here is a simple example chart. These are my estimated numbers, but I believe they are not that far off from real numbers used by various agencies, at least close enough for this exercise.

1 yr 15 yr 25 yr 40 yr 55 yr 70 yr 80 yr
----- ----- ------ ------ ------ ------ -----
$1M $5M $10M $8M $4M $2M $1M

[Edited]
Since average age of those dying is about 80 we can peg the economic loss of 1 death at $1M, but I'll use $2M. Now we need to make an assumption about how many more lives would be lost because hospitals become overwhelmed without our current stay at home and social distancing policies versus doing nothing. I'll guess 50% more people would die without social distancing policies (pick your own estimate if you wish, but mine is extremely generous I believe). Let's use an early estimate of death at 100k so now we have 50k more deaths at $2M each or $100B. Let's be good engineers and add a 5x safety margin so worst case economic effects of extra deaths is $500B. One could then say that any mitigation efforts we impose should try not to cause more than $500B in damage to the economy. These numbers are still not close to the tens of Trillions of dollars of damage we have actually done to the economy.

This is just a mental exercise and obviously does not take into account the harm to public health caused by the mitigation efforts. It does help to frame one's thinking though as we already use this exact type of thinking to frame and set many public policies.
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  #136  
Old 04-11-2020, 12:41 PM
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The 16 million is just the first three weeks of this lockdown, wait until we hear about this week's number of unemployed, and then the next week. It is a given that we're at double-digit unemployment, approaching Depression numbers.

Not just suicides, but unemployment and poverty bring illness and deaths, always and everywhere. Treatable diseases get worse in low income and poverty-stricken places. Same with diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, etc.

To say that the govt. forced economic shutdown is worse than the virus is an extreme understatement.
Yep.

The solution is going to be government assistance.

That's what discouraged me the most when this all started unfolding weeks ago... for an entity to force a problem with a built in plan for the same entity to be the solution - is beyond shady.
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  #137  
Old 04-11-2020, 3:22 PM
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Originally Posted by skirunman View Post
As I stated in other threads, the Federal Government already has models that value human life in economic terms. Insurance companies do this as well. In undergrad I had a semester internship at an insurance company working in their actuarial science group, boring job.

Here is a simple example chart. These are my estimated numbers, but I believe they are not that far off from real numbers used by various agencies, at least close enough for this exercise.

1 yr 15 yr 25 yr 40 yr 55 yr 70 yr 80 yr
----- ----- ------ ------ ------ ------ -----
$1M $5M $10M $8M $4M $2M $1M

[Edited]
Since average age of those dying is about 80 we can peg the economic loss of 1 death at $1M, but I'll use $2M. Now we need to make an assumption about how many more lives would be lost because hospitals become overwhelmed without our current stay at home and social distancing policies versus doing nothing. I'll guess 50% more people would die without social distancing policies (pick your own estimate if you wish, but mine is extremely generous I believe). Let's use an early estimate of death at 100k so now we have 50k more deaths at $2M each or $100B. Let's be good engineers and add a 5x safety margin so worst case economic effects of extra deaths is $500B. One could then say that any mitigation efforts we impose should try not to cause more than $500B in damage to the economy. These numbers are still not close to the tens of Trillions of dollars of damage we have actually done to the economy.

This is just a mental exercise and obviously does not take into account the harm to public health caused by the mitigation efforts. It does help to frame one's thinking though as we already use this exact type of thinking to frame and set many public policies.
Thank you for being more educated and patient than I.

Yet, I doubt they will ever admit how wrong this shutdown approach was. They have been too busy proving “science” and how smart they are despite all the unknowns associated with covid.

I’ve been called names for, among other things, questioning the thinking of people that won’t shake hands, but will book a cruise. (Human germ labs IMO) Daring to suggest that dead doesn’t care how it happened. Apparently some death is more dead that other kinds.

When it turns out the covid has been in The US for months before we locked down and millions didn’t die, they still won’t admit to being wrong. We’ll hear more “might haves” and “what ifs”.

How about “what happens next time”? Do we lock down the world for every new viral bump in the night? Or maybe apply some common sense? (As I suggested WEEKS ago)

This virus will pass. Our new debt load will not. We’re killing the golden goose.
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  #138  
Old 04-11-2020, 4:27 PM
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What happens next is America needs to figure out how to beat this virus and share that knowledge with allies only.
Israel and (maybe) Canada?
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  #139  
Old 04-11-2020, 4:30 PM
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Since average age of those dying is about 80 we can peg the economic loss of 1 death at..., $2M...,make an assumption about how many more lives would be lost..., (pick your own estimate if you wish..,Let's be good engineers and add a 5x safety margin
OK, I'll bite.....
1. let's keep 2$M/death
2. then I'll assume everyone gets it (the underlying math supports something close without any of the measures put in place)
3. in this case, the hospitals WILL easily be overloaded
4. the fatality rate with overloaded hospitals, I'll assume to be about 5% based on the best recovered vs. fatality rates from Spain, Italy and New York from the worldometer site.
5. 330 million people in the US with 5% fatality = 16.5million people dead
6. I'll skip your 5x margin, since I used worst case on inputs
6. 16.5M dead@2$M per = 33 trillion

I'll also raise the point about the model by pointing out that it does not allow for catching it multiple time (which it likely is) and that the (anecdotal) fatality rate for repeat patients is substantially higher (gotta love a disease that is it's own comorbidity). The two combine to allow for that rate cost on an annual basis.

Frankly, I think a resulting number that is 50% higher than our GDP because 5% died seems quite off. I would suggest that your numbers for human life in economic terms are off somehow.

In any case, this requires far too much supposition to be accurate. The science is not settled and any calculations are subject to garbage in = garbage out.
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  #140  
Old 04-11-2020, 6:47 PM
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Again you frame the question in such a dishonest way.
Why are you insulting my honestly? You don't even know me. I haven't insulted you, have I? Let's be civil.


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Originally Posted by SAN compnerd View Post
Would you make that same sort of comparison about lives lost to abortion?
I'm struggling to follow your analogy here. I personally would value the unborn lives higher than an elderly person's life. Or at least, when I'm 80 and the option is to kill me or an unborn please kill me -- that baby has a whole life to live and I'm on my way out soon enough.

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It's total bull to frame this as preserving short term economic activity, we've been in a 'short term' economic shutdown for a month now.
This is where our conversation here ends. Even the stock market can see this is a short term blip. Our nation's economy is not so feeble that half the workers taking a few months off will sink the ship. If you can't see that fundamental then I don't think we have much to discuss.
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  #141  
Old 04-11-2020, 6:54 PM
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  #142  
Old 04-12-2020, 2:08 AM
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It's still yet to be seen if this is a short-term economic 'blip'. It all depends on whether Mr. Fauchi is outed as a bat-crap-crazy deep-state commie or not.
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  #143  
Old 04-12-2020, 5:31 AM
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The 16 million is just the first three weeks of this lockdown, wait until we hear about this week's number of unemployed, and then the next week. It is a given that we're at double-digit unemployment, approaching Depression numbers.

Not just suicides, but unemployment and poverty bring illness and deaths, always and everywhere. Treatable diseases get worse in low income and poverty-stricken places. Same with diabetes, hypertension, heart disease, etc.

To say that the govt. forced economic shutdown is worse than the virus is an extreme understatement.
16 million is just the last 3 weeks. Who knows how many lost their jobs before that. In February, some businesses were already starting to shut down or have limited hours and service.

Some people casually talk about keeping everything shut down for months like it is just a minor inconvenience. They must public employees or independently wealthy. No skin off their azz. And in the end it isn't about saving lives. It all about blaming everything on Orange Man ahead of the election, although they will never admit it.
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Old 04-12-2020, 5:51 AM
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Why are you insulting my honestly? You don't even know me. I haven't insulted you, have I? Let's be civil.
.
Tell you what, you be honest and then I’ll start being civil. You go first.


To you question of how much is an elderly life worth, it is working out to be 42.

Assuming we end up saving 140,000 lives for $6T we spent, it’s 42 million per life saved.
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Dude give it up. The election is was months ago. Hillary is toast. Her political career is over.

Or do you just hate her so much you can't let go?
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Old 04-12-2020, 5:58 AM
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16 million is just the last 3 weeks. Who knows how many lost their jobs before that. In February, some businesses were already starting to shut down or have limited hours and service.

Some people casually talk about keeping everything shut down for months like it is just a minor inconvenience. They must public employees or independently wealthy. No skin off their azz. And in the end it isn't about saving lives. It all about blaming everything on Orange Man ahead of the election, although they will never admit it.
I'm watching Rep Katie Porter, Dem from OC, yapping on PBS - saying "Congress should still be working... blah, blah, blah"... listing all the reasons they need to be making policies... she's spewing about all her self indulgent importance...

So you're right - public employees dont give a crap that other people are out of work and businesses are shutting down (some forever)
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Old 04-12-2020, 11:38 AM
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Yes, this is mental gymnastics with lots of unknowns yet still fun. Remember, the entire reason for the broad shelter in place and social distancing was to slow the spread so hospitals would not be overwhelmed, but eventually the same number of people would get the virus, at least until we have a vaccine. Therefore the key factor one has to estimate is the additional number of people with the virus that would die because they could not get appropriate hospital care. From the data I have seen this statistical really just means those that could not get ICU level care with access to oxygen and ventilators.

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OK, I'll bite.....
1. let's keep 2$M/death
2. then I'll assume everyone gets it (the underlying math supports something close without any of the measures put in place)
I don't know of any current model or real world data that assumes 100% of the population is likely to get it because we approach herd immunity at something like 50%-70% infected, I'll assume 60%. In addition, it would take some number of infection seasons to get to this level, likely over at least 1-2 years.

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3. in this case, the hospitals WILL easily be overloaded
With absolutely no mitigation this is true, but as those that primarily need ICU level care with ventilators and eventually die are either older than 65 with comorbidities, or over 40 with serious and usually multiple comorbidities. We could address this by simply isolating these people until we reach herd immunity levels or have a vaccine. Good thing is most of these people don't work either. For this calculation I'll leave this out.

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4. the fatality rate with overloaded hospitals, I'll assume to be about 5% based on the best recovered vs. fatality rates from Spain, Italy and New York from the worldometer site.
From the emerging data I think you are off by an order of magnitude. From the recent German study and others, I'm pretty certain we are going to see an actual case fatality rate something more like 0.3%-0.5% under all circumstances across all age groups. I'll assume 0.5%.

In the US from data I have seen is something like 20% of tested confirmed cases require hospitalization. However, this is more likely 2%-3% of all cases as we are not currently testing the asymptomatic or those with minor symptoms, as per these new studies. I'll assume 5% of all cases require hospitalization.

Of this 5% something like 10%-20% of those require ICU/ventilators and 50%-75% of those die. This gets us back in the range of the 0.3%-0.5% case fatality rate I assumed above.

Some sick will have ICU/ventilators even in the worst outbreaks, but I'll make a worst case assumption and assume 100% of those that require ICU die without any mitigations.

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5. 330 million people in the US with 5% fatality = 16.5million people dead
6. I'll skip your 5x margin, since I used worst case on inputs
7. 16.5M dead@2$M per = 33 trillion
New calculation is 330M people * 60% infection rate * 5% hospitalization rate * 20% ICU * 100% ICU death rate (not 75%) = 2M dead in total, instead of 1.5M, which seems to jive with other models and studies (Imperial College 1-2M dead).

Bottom line, even in this worst, worst case assumption we have an additional 500k dead without shelter in place spread over a couple of years or $1T in economic loss at $2M per death. In reality this is probably much less.

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I'll also raise the point about the model by pointing out that it does not allow for catching it multiple time (which it likely is) and that the (anecdotal) fatality rate for repeat patients is substantially higher (gotta love a disease that is it's own comorbidity). The two combine to allow for that rate cost on an annual basis.
Yes, we should leave this out as there is no good data on re-infection rates.

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Frankly, I think a resulting number that is 50% higher than our GDP because 5% died seems quite off. I would suggest that your numbers for human life in economic terms are off somehow.
$10M for a young person and $2M for 70-80 year old is accurate. Go to this link and you will find links to quite a few papers on this subject.

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In any case, this requires far too much supposition to be accurate. The science is not settled and any calculations are subject to garbage in = garbage out.
Of course, but when setting public policy we need to include assumptions about the the economic and public health impacts of those policies. Also, science is never settled.

In hindsight, I strongly believe now we should not have shut down the economy at all, but instead strongly isolated those older than 65 and those older than 40 with underlying medical issues, of course voluntarily. This, along with basic polices like increased hand washing, social distance in public, wear a mask in tight quarters, etc. would have lowered both the hospitalization and death rates significantly while not crushing the economy.
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Last edited by skirunman; 04-12-2020 at 11:44 AM.. Reason: Fix last sentence
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  #147  
Old 04-25-2020, 2:14 PM
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‪These deaths aren’t required to be verified by lab testing. ‬

‪If a death is ASSUMED to be related to COVID, it is recorded as the primary cause and submitted to the NVSS. ‬

‪ITS FRAUDULENT


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Old 04-25-2020, 2:33 PM
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