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Coronavirus/COVID19 Temp Forum This is a temporary forum for discussion, debate, sharing and helping each other during and in relation to the Coronavirus/COVID19

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  #41  
Old 05-29-2020, 7:28 AM
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Sure, but we can't open too fast!

nailed it.
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  #42  
Old 05-29-2020, 7:34 AM
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Originally Posted by cleonard View Post
I guess those people that burned the police station in Minneapolis last night didn't get the memo. I think that shows that there are limits.

A lot of them did have masks though. Got to stay safe when trying to burn the city.

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not sure what that has to do with the topic or my post - but, okay
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  #43  
Old 05-30-2020, 1:01 AM
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it killed 61k in a season not that long ago, which is more that the factual number of covid-19 deaths, which is probably closer to 20k.
Source?
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  #44  
Old 05-30-2020, 11:43 AM
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Originally Posted by FireCloud9 View Post
Source?
as if there's any legitimate source for any of the covid BS
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  #45  
Old 05-30-2020, 1:52 PM
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Source?
There is no source - part of a myth they've built by using antidote-al reports and bias to create a 80% false reporting rate
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  #46  
Old 05-30-2020, 2:00 PM
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Originally Posted by FireCloud9 View Post
Source?
https://www.healio.com/infectious-di...-cdc-estimates

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The 2018-2019 influenza season in the United States was of moderate severity and lasted 21 weeks, making it the longest in 10 years, researchers from the CDC’s Influenza Division reported in MMWR.

Preliminary estimates placed the total number of influenza-associated deaths in the U.S. between 36,400 and 61,200, the researchers wrote. There were 116 laboratory-confirmed pediatric deaths from influenza.
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  #47  
Old 06-01-2020, 10:53 AM
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If someone in Government wanted to let Federal/State level agencies know to plan for 1 million deaths. If they came out and said "Hey guys plan for a million deaths that is our best estimate", the world would literally **** itself.

But if you say.. hey plan for 0.26% deaths the mouth breathers go "Hey lookie it is so low" and the planners can go about their planning without people realizing they are planning for a million dead.

That is how you can bureaucratically plan for a mass die off and the explanation for such a document that says it is for planning purposes only.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html
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  #48  
Old 06-01-2020, 12:34 PM
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Almost 3 Million people die in the us every year. We seem to handle it.
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  #49  
Old 06-01-2020, 12:53 PM
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The .26% number is clearly a planning number and who knows where it came from. The CDC posted no methodology for how they came up with that number.

Every good serology study: Spain, UK, NYC, Brazil, Sweden, etc, puts the IFR ~ 1%.
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  #50  
Old 06-01-2020, 11:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theLBC View Post
it killed 61k in a season not that long ago, which is more that the factual number of covid-19 deaths, which is probably closer to 20k.
Please post your sources for the "closer to 20k" portion of your claim.
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  #51  
Old 06-02-2020, 7:22 AM
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Originally Posted by tuna quesadilla View Post
Please post your sources for the "closer to 20k" portion of your claim.
As if any source has accurate numbers
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  #52  
Old 06-02-2020, 7:36 AM
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Originally Posted by tuna quesadilla View Post
Please post your sources for the "closer to 20k" portion of your claim.
There isn't any source, but I'll give it a go. There's a vast global conspiracy of MEs, Coroners, Public Health Departments, and Governments across dozens on countries to overinflate the Covid death totals to achieve socialist/chinese/illuminati control of the world population. Something like that.


I find it odd that dozens of countries who had massive Covid outbreaks also had massive spikes in excess mortality. Meanwhile, countries that didn't have massive Covid outbreaks AND locked down didn't have massive spikes in excess mortality. This information implies the lockdowns didn't cause those massive spikes in excess mortality, then what did? If, you don't believe the obvious conclusion that Covid-19 caused this spike in excess mortality, we're back to vast global conspiarcy.
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  #53  
Old 06-02-2020, 8:04 AM
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If, you don't believe the obvious conclusion that Covid-19 caused this spike in excess mortality, we're back to vast global conspiarcy.
There's another possibility that you haven't proposed: Mortality was brought forward by a few months. End of year stats should show a much more accurate picture of Covid-19's impact.

Case in point: A very significant percentage of Covid-19 deaths have been associated with nursing homes, and over fifty percent of people who enter nursing homes die within the first six months.
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  #54  
Old 06-02-2020, 8:14 AM
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There's another possibility that you haven't proposed: Mortality was brought forward by a few months. End of year stats should show a much more accurate picture of Covid-19's impact.

Case in point: A very significant percentage of Covid-19 deaths have been associated with nursing homes, and over fifty percent of people who enter nursing homes die within the first six months.
So, thousands of MEs across dozens of countries all simultaneously "brought forward" deaths? And it just happened to happen in March/April, coinciding with the Covid-19 spike? And people in nursing homes were still dying in prior years with no massive spike in excess mortality? So, yeah we're back to vast global conspiracy.

End of year stats should show a much more accurate picture of Covid-19's impact. True, given the lag in reporting, but the rest of your statement is pure nonsense.
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  #55  
Old 06-02-2020, 8:38 AM
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Originally Posted by balgor View Post
There isn't any source, but I'll give it a go. There's a vast global conspiracy of MEs, Coroners, Public Health Departments, and Governments across dozens on countries to overinflate the Covid death totals to achieve socialist/chinese/illuminati control of the world population. Something like that.

I find it odd that dozens of countries who had massive Covid outbreaks also had massive spikes in excess mortality. Meanwhile, countries that didn't have massive Covid outbreaks AND locked down didn't have massive spikes in excess mortality. This information implies the lockdowns didn't cause those massive spikes in excess mortality, then what did? If, you don't believe the obvious conclusion that Covid-19 caused this spike in excess mortality, we're back to vast global conspiarcy.
Well reasoned post, the excess mortality in places with no lockdown would indeed point to real covid deaths.

So let's look at Sweden, possibly the best example since they didn't implement harsh measures and mostly let the virus run free. They are at 4.5k deaths and counting whereas a regular flu year is about 2.5k deaths.

They also don't have to worry about Dr Fauci, the CDC, Cuomo, liberal governors, the US MSM.

- Covid worse than the flu? Yes
- 'Massive' spike? Not really - life goes on in Sweden (10x worse would be massive IMO)
- Their new cases has held fairly steady (hasn't stopped) while their new deaths are decreasing

It tells us that the fatality rate isn't really all that bad. Worth washing your hands a little more and making sure to avoid crowds but not worth shutting down the economy.
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  #56  
Old 06-02-2020, 8:56 AM
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The best analysis of excess deaths I've seen:
https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...ross-countries

Countries that have locked down have mostly seen their excess deaths drop back to their baselines, Sweden has not.

Now, are the benefits of a lockdown in reduced mortality worth the costs of a lockdown? I have no idea and I don't think we'll know for years. I've never argued for lockdowns. I never support blanket government policies, they are too blunt of an instrument. I spend memorial day week on vacation camping in the middle of nowhere Utah and quite frankly sparsely populated places like that had no need for a lockdown.

I've argued for taking Covid-19 very seriously. All available information points to Covid-19 being much deadlier than the flu.
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  #57  
Old 06-02-2020, 9:11 AM
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As if any source has accurate numbers
If that's the echo-chamber groupthink around here, then why and how did he arrive at 20K as the death toll?
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  #58  
Old 06-02-2020, 9:15 AM
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Originally Posted by LBDamned View Post
there was never a time when falsely inflating flu number pushed an agenda.

Futile comparison.
So you believe the CDC and U.S. statistics on Covid-19 deaths are just made up? You don't believe the virus has killed over 100,000 in 3-4 months? Wow. That guvment of our'n sure sold us a really big lie, huh?
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  #59  
Old 06-02-2020, 9:53 AM
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So you believe the CDC and U.S. statistics on Covid-19 deaths are just made up? You don't believe the virus has killed over 100,000 in 3-4 months? Wow. That guvment of our'n sure sold us a really big lie, huh?
If, you don't believe the CDC statistics, it heavily implies you don't believe the statistics from health departments across dozens of countries showing a similair spike in deaths in March/April. Which leads straight down the pathway to vast global conspiracies, 5G detonating the virus, and wrapping yourself in foil.
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  #60  
Old 06-02-2020, 11:19 AM
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So you believe the CDC and U.S. statistics on Covid-19 deaths are just made up? You don't believe the virus has killed over 100,000 in 3-4 months? Wow. That guvment of our'n sure sold us a really big lie, huh?
Why should we?
[1] Even CDC doesn't believe, remove about 25k from that number to start with
[2] Subtract some arbitrary number that were added due to extra payments received for covid and ventilator use ($40k for the latter)

Even if we just do [1] then we're back to very flu-like numbers. Remember, no one gives a crap if grandma/grandpa dies from the flu.
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  #61  
Old 07-11-2020, 7:35 PM
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Fyi, the CDC has quietly updated this to .65%..

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

Guess they are telling everyone to plan for it to be worse.. this IFR looks more realistic. If it is admin policy to let the disease run through the population then they should let everyone know what to plan for
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  #62  
Old 07-11-2020, 7:57 PM
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So we went from a very very small percentage to a very small percentage?
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  #63  
Old 07-11-2020, 8:01 PM
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So we went from a very very small percentage to a very small percentage?
2 million Americans dead is a small percentage of total Americans but everyone would agree that is a lot of deaths.

330 million * .0065 = 2, 145, 000 dead if everyone gets it

The “everyone is gonna get it anyways” crowd seems to gloss over that point and also miss out in the fact that we have other options rather then letting it run through and having a mass die off.
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  #64  
Old 07-11-2020, 8:22 PM
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Will China Flu evaporate if we all stay locked down? How long should this confinement last, one year, two, till it is safe, asking for a friend.

*update* clicked the wrong subsection, normally don't party in the bat flu side of the isle, carry on everyone.

Last edited by Super Chicken; 07-11-2020 at 8:33 PM.. Reason: Life happens
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  #65  
Old 07-11-2020, 8:39 PM
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Originally Posted by smashycrashy View Post
Fyi, the CDC has quietly updated this to .65%..

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...scenarios.html

Guess they are telling everyone to plan for it to be worse.. this IFR looks more realistic. If it is admin policy to let the disease run through the population then they should let everyone know what to plan for
Those are best guess scenarios based on current data... data that is questionable.
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  #66  
Old 07-11-2020, 8:41 PM
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Will China Flu evaporate if we all stay locked down? How long should this confinement last, one year, two, till it is safe, asking for a friend.
Notice how other countries are opening up? That is because they got the virus to a low enough level through lockdown and testing turnaround fast enough for detect/isolate/trace to break the transmission chain.

You simply cannot do that with the virus circulating significantly.

It is manageable.. if done competently..
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  #67  
Old 07-11-2020, 8:42 PM
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Those are best guess scenarios based on current data... data that is questionable.
Literally around in circles for 4 months...

Only 4 more to go
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  #68  
Old 07-11-2020, 8:49 PM
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Originally Posted by smashycrashy View Post
Notice how other countries are opening up? That is because they got the virus to a low enough level through lockdown and testing turnaround fast enough for detect/isolate/trace to break the transmission chain.

You simply cannot do that with the virus circulating significantly.

It is manageable.. if done competently..
You don't even realize how ridiculous this sounds. One case in December in China has become, what, 10+ million worldwide? How can any country open up with even one case and not expect it to snowball to what it was within a month or two?

We get it Smashy, you want to shut the country down and hand the reins to Joe the Chinese puppet.

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Old 07-11-2020, 8:55 PM
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shared to my wifes FB page - i guess it's the Illinois Governor and COVID rep who "defines" how they are determining what is a COVID death - it's quite ridiculous and comes off as more bs than anything else - essentially saying that no matter what you die from if you test positive for COVID then COVID will be listed as cause of death

can't find another way to link it other than FB

https://www.facebook.com/lesa.fisher...51129788277372
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Old 07-11-2020, 9:06 PM
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it killed 61k in a season not that long ago, which is more that the factual number of covid-19 deaths, which is probably closer to 20k.
Based on the cruise ship data, scaled up to the entire US population, I got 36K.

It is clear that the reported data is unreliable. There is a large financial incentive to diagnose covid. For instance, those who died with covid are counted regardless of the actual cause of death. Many hospitals are now in financial trouble due to covid. The CDC has a convoluted case counting procedure that wildly inflates the number of "cases".

It is my personal opinion that the covid situation is being exploited to manipulate the fall election. A secondary benefit is to bankrupt hospitals and further the socialized government medical system that is being pushed by the left.
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Old 07-11-2020, 9:15 PM
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You don't even realize how ridiculous this sounds. One case in December in China has become, what, 10+ million worldwide? How can any country open up with even one case and not expect it to snowball to what it was within a month or two?
You do realize there are many countries that have had bad outbreaks and have managed to get them under control and slowly re-open to ensure it remains so, they have also scaled the test/isolate/trace mechanisms so that they can open up further.

As for the political aspect that you brought up, the polling numbers of leaders who handled it competently are doing well despite the economic damage. Because it turns out that you don’t much care about the economy if you are dead. We have had a series of short term decisions trying to minimize any thought of the “scamdemic”.. that’ll tank your polling numbers for sure. So in fact I am arguing for something that would help the people in power stay in power.. if they were able to somehow manage it
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Old 07-11-2020, 9:48 PM
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Originally Posted by smashycrashy View Post
You do realize there are many countries that have had bad outbreaks and have managed to get them under control and slowly re-open to ensure it remains so, they have also scaled the test/isolate/trace mechanisms so that they can open up further.

As for the political aspect that you brought up, the polling numbers of leaders who handled it competently are doing well despite the economic damage. Because it turns out that you don’t much care about the economy if you are dead. We have had a series of short term decisions trying to minimize any thought of the “scamdemic”.. that’ll tank your polling numbers for sure. So in fact I am arguing for something that would help the people in power stay in power.. if they were able to somehow manage it
Well at least they finally updated the IFR to a more realistic number. I'd still love to see their methodology, from my research it's a tad low, but at least it's not some number that is clearly wrong anymore.

So, people believe that testing, tracing and quarantine systems don't work? Damn the Germans, the South Koreans, the Singaporeans,etc are going to be really surprised. It's a really simple concept you test widely, you get a positive you quarantine them, you then test all their contacts quarantine any positives, test their contacts etc, until you break the chain of transmission. The South Koreans were testing entire office buildings if one person tested positive. Their system has been a wild success.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/ar...secret/611215/

South korea’s covid-19 response strategy sits atop three pillars: fast and free testing, expansive tracing technology, and mandatory isolation of the most severe cases.

https://elemental.medium.com/what-we...e-97a4db5c9fef

Broad testing availability set the stage for the success of a second important change: legislation enabling the Korean Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) to use private data from 28 companies, including credit card data and GPS information from smartphones, to trace the movement of people infected with Covid-19. This capacity enabled efficient and effective contact tracing — rapid identification and isolation or treatment of infected people and their close contacts.

Last edited by balgor; 07-11-2020 at 9:50 PM..
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  #73  
Old 07-11-2020, 9:56 PM
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balgor balgor is offline
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Based on the cruise ship data, scaled up to the entire US population, I got 36K.

It is clear that the reported data is unreliable. There is a large financial incentive to diagnose covid. For instance, those who died with covid are counted regardless of the actual cause of death. Many hospitals are now in financial trouble due to covid. The CDC has a convoluted case counting procedure that wildly inflates the number of "cases".

It is my personal opinion that the covid situation is being exploited to manipulate the fall election. A secondary benefit is to bankrupt hospitals and further the socialized government medical system that is being pushed by the left.
Out of curiosity, how did you extrapolate the cruise ship data to the whole US? Explain to me why you thought it was a good idea?

Hint: google representative sample
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Old 07-11-2020, 10:09 PM
smashycrashy smashycrashy is offline
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So we went from a very very small percentage to a very small percentage?
Oh and btw covered in my earlier post

Quote:
Originally Posted by me
...
But if you say.. hey plan for 0.26% deaths the mouth breathers go "Hey lookie it is so low" and the planners can go about their planning without people realizing they are planning for a million dead.
...
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Old 07-11-2020, 11:12 PM
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There's been a lot of fixation upon the whole "if a person dies from anything, if they have covid, it's a covid death".

I agree it seems absurd to count a guy who got run over by a truck as a covid death. but how many covid positive people are going to die in ways that are completely unrelated to covid19? it's not like they give covid19 tests to every body that shows up in the morgue. we can't even get timely covid19 tests done for the living.

My guess is that, administratively, it is too difficult to come up with rules like "if they died while positive from [long list], it's covid, but if they died while positive from [another long list], it's not covid." because the # of people who die in ways clearly removed from covid19 are probably very low, and because covid19 has such a pervasive effect on the body, it looks like they decided that this is the best way to get relatively good numbers on how many deaths can be at least partially attributed to covid19.

so I think that is the bottom line - what the purpose of all of this is. in order to fight the virus, you have to know how bad it is. this rule, which may sound ridiculous, probably exists because leaders need to know roughly how bad things are, and in a way where data collection isn't going to bog down medical staff.

now there's some talk about how hospitals get $40,000 more if it's covid. IIRC, that has been pretty much debunked multiple times here. a quick search turns up articles like this one: https://www.statesman.com/news/20200...ng-coronavirus. that said, even if that were true - $40,000 is really a pittance when it comes to long hospital stays. 6 weeks in ICU alone, without any surgery or ventilator, costs an abomination of a fortune.
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Last edited by duenor; 07-11-2020 at 11:17 PM..
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Old 07-12-2020, 2:35 AM
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Oh and btw covered in my earlier post
Roughly 3million people die every year in this country. We never shut down for that.

Ban smokes, sugar, alcohol and all travel forever. Oh, and murder, and war and and and... You’ll save us all.
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Old 07-14-2020, 7:33 AM
Big bug Big bug is offline
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I am not upset with people trying to keep their germs off of me. In fact, thank you. However, I wear a full beard and a mask, but I know the mask is at best 70% effective at filter the air I breathe in and significantly less than that for the air I breathe out. I base this on how much my glasses fog up and how warm my ears get when I breathe out. It may make others feel better, but it is only feels.

Rusty Bolts
Thank you for making the effort. Despite the hot air coming out of your body causing glass fogging and warm ears.... You're droplets (which we are more concerned about) are being minimized significantly. Must mention though that having a full beard and that in itself usually makes it much harder to properly wear a mask. Kudos....brother...thanks again for being compassionate
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Old 07-14-2020, 7:51 AM
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Roughly 3million people die every year in this country. We never shut down for that.

Ban smokes, sugar, alcohol and all travel forever. Oh, and murder, and war and and and... You’ll save us all.

Normal. We are set up for normal.

We are not set up for this virus.
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Old 07-14-2020, 8:01 AM
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Normal. We are set up for normal.

We are not set up for this virus.
Again, BS. People panicked.

Over 50 million die world wide every year. People eat, smoke and drink themselves to death in huge numbers.

This virus is a drop in the bucket.
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