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Coronavirus/COVID19 Temp Forum This is a temporary forum for discussion, debate, sharing and helping each other during and in relation to the Coronavirus/COVID19

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  #41  
Old 06-04-2020, 8:02 PM
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Originally Posted by SanDiego619 View Post
The jig is up, the virus isn't as bad as they said. Let's see if our test guineapig rioters caused a spike. I'll bet not.
The 100,000 Americans who died and the families of those who died MIGHT disagree with your "opinion".
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  #42  
Old 06-04-2020, 8:05 PM
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Originally Posted by SanDiego619 View Post
Deaths are plummeting.

Can't dispute it.
Quite right. However, you also have to understand that the REASON they are plummeting is because we LOCKED DOWN! Now, you also have to understand that the infection and death data lags the real world by 2-4 week (incubation plus infection time). Now that were are opening again, we need to look at the numbers 2-4 weeks from now and see how we are doing.

If the numbers continue to plummet - great! The lockdown worked.
If the numbers skyrocket - um..... opening may not have been a good idea. Time will tell.
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  #43  
Old 06-04-2020, 8:14 PM
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Originally Posted by CAL.BAR View Post
Quite right. However, you also have to understand that the REASON they are plummeting is because we LOCKED DOWN! Now, you also have to understand that the infection and death data lags the real world by 2-4 week (incubation plus infection time). Now that were are opening again, we need to look at the numbers 2-4 weeks from now and see how we are doing.

If the numbers continue to plummet - great! The lockdown worked.
If the numbers skyrocket - um..... opening may not have been a good idea. Time will tell.
Yep. These things take time to pan out. It was just yesterday that Texas set a record high for the 7-day moving average of new cases. Letís check back in maybe 3 weeks and see if there was a corresponding bump in deaths, too. Too early to definitely say that the problem is over when really itís only just picking up.
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  #44  
Old 06-04-2020, 9:15 PM
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If the numbers continue to plummet - great! The lockdown worked.
If the numbers skyrocket - um..... opening may not have been a good idea. Time will tell.
Yeah, tho only possible answers to the results are that your liberal views are correct either way. You are truly a piece of work.

How about this, the numbers continue to plummet and it could only mean the lockdowns were horsecrap. The virus is still as contagious as it ever was, so if the lockdowns worked, then the opening back up would have to be a disaster.

But feel free to hide under the bed and post your incessant BS, the men will let you know when it's safe to come out. If it turns out you are right, then men will catch the Wu Man Flu and develop the immunity. You can let someone else will fight your battle either way.
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  #45  
Old 06-04-2020, 10:31 PM
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Originally Posted by CAL.BAR View Post
Quite right. However, you also have to understand that the REASON they are plummeting is because we LOCKED DOWN! Now, you also have to understand that the infection and death data lags the real world by 2-4 week (incubation plus infection time). Now that were are opening again, we need to look at the numbers 2-4 weeks from now and see how we are doing.

If the numbers continue to plummet - great! The lockdown worked.
If the numbers skyrocket - um..... opening may not have been a good idea. Time will tell.
What if there is no spike and deaths continue to plummet even after the massive extreme opposite of social distancing we saw with the riots? Then will you allow the possibility that social distancing and such was not necessary?
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  #46  
Old 06-04-2020, 11:16 PM
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Yeah, tho only possible answers to the results are that your liberal views
Whoa, stop right there.

How in the world did epidemiology and human biology become a political topic for you?

Have you considered taking a step back and assessing that not everything in this world needs to have a political label slapped on it?

Have you considered that maybe your aggressive "politicize everything" attitude is contributing to the very divisiveness that you're lamenting here?

We're talking about 110,000 dead Americans here and you're trying to make this a joke about liberals and conservatives? A hundred and ten thousand dead Americans. In three months.

You're out of your mind.
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  #47  
Old 06-04-2020, 11:18 PM
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What if there is no spike and deaths continue to plummet even after the massive extreme opposite of social distancing we saw with the riots? Then will you allow the possibility that social distancing and such was not necessary?
Hey, the death rate plummeting would be a fantastic thing! We're up to 110,000 of our countrymen dead, because some dude in China decided to eat a bat.

Nobody can truly know right now whether or not social distancing was the right move. We don't know enough about the virus yet. We'll likely learn in the coming months and years whether the recent "flattening of the curve" was due to our social distancing measures, or if it was just an inevitable outcome anyways.

Anyone who claims to know the answer to that question on either side is pushing a political agenda and is not to be trusted.
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  #48  
Old 06-04-2020, 11:25 PM
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Originally Posted by tuna quesadilla View Post
Hey, the death rate plummeting would be a fantastic thing! We're up to 110,000 of our countrymen dead, because some dude in China decided to eat a bat.

Nobody can truly know right now whether or not social distancing was the right move. We don't know enough about the virus yet. We'll likely learn in the coming months and years whether the recent "flattening of the curve" was due to our social distancing measures, or if it was just an inevitable outcome anyways.

Anyone who claims to know the answer to that question on either side is pushing a political agenda and is not to be trusted.
We might have some evidence on the effectiveness of social distancing in 3-4 weeks, if there is no spike after all this non-social-distancing them maybe it was not necessary. If there is a big spike, then maybe it was working!

I will be back on 4th of July to see what happened. (if I don't forget)
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  #49  
Old 06-04-2020, 11:41 PM
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Originally Posted by tuna quesadilla View Post
Hey, the death rate plummeting would be a fantastic thing! We're up to 110,000 of our countrymen dead, because some dude in China decided to eat a bat.

Nobody can truly know right now whether or not social distancing was the right move. We don't know enough about the virus yet. We'll likely learn in the coming months and years whether the recent "flattening of the curve" was due to our social distancing measures, or if it was just an inevitable outcome anyways.

Anyone who claims to know the answer to that question on either side is pushing a political agenda and is not to be trusted.
No, "Social Distancing" was and is no doubt the right move along with testing and contact tracing. It's why we and the rest of the countries that have done it are at roughly a 5% fatality rate, vs Sweden's roughly 10% fatality rate. Currently for the US that's 100,000 fatalities difference, and that number will continue to grow until there's a vaccine or working therapeutic.

That said, whether the entire shut-down was correctly handled is of course open for debate.

Last edited by DJD100; 06-05-2020 at 9:37 AM..
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  #50  
Old 06-05-2020, 12:45 AM
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  #51  
Old 06-05-2020, 4:04 AM
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No, "Social Distancing" was and is no doubt along with testing and contact tracing. It's why we and the rest of the countries that have done it are at roughly a 5% fatality rate, vs Sweden's roughly 10% fatality rate. Currently for the US that's 100,000 fatalities difference, and that number will continue to grow until there's a vaccine or working therapeutic.

That said, whether the entire shut-down was correctly handled is of course open for debate.
You're not understanding how this works. We chose to "flatten the curve", Sweden chose to let the virus run. The final death count is the area under the curve - there's no escape. Our covid epidemic will be less severe than that of Sweden but it will run longer.

They are already done, look at their daily deaths:
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  #52  
Old 06-05-2020, 6:27 AM
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Time will tell.
This is how I look at it. Hoping for the best.
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  #53  
Old 06-05-2020, 7:13 AM
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Originally Posted by CAL.BAR View Post
The 100,000 Americans who died and the families of those who died MIGHT disagree with your "opinion".
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Originally Posted by tuna quesadilla View Post
Hey, the death rate plummeting would be a fantastic thing! We're up to 110,000 of our countrymen dead, because some dude in China decided to eat a bat.
"100k dead from the virus" gets used a lot for arguments fin favor of the lock-down. But as has been demonstrated over and over, that number has been grossly inflated.

Grossly Inflated.
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  #54  
Old 06-05-2020, 7:27 AM
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Originally Posted by tuna quesadilla View Post
Whoa, stop right there.

How in the world did epidemiology and human biology become a political topic for you?

Have you considered taking a step back and assessing that not everything in this world needs to have a political label slapped on it?

You're out of your mind.
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Originally Posted by tuna quesadilla View Post

Anyone who claims to know the answer to that question on either side is pushing a political agenda and is not to be trusted.
Why do you always have to make it political?
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  #55  
Old 06-05-2020, 8:02 AM
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Why do you always have to make it political?
Nice try at being clever, but you missed the mark. Me calling out people for making things needlessly political does not, in and of itself, mean that I am making things political.

It didn't go unnoticed that you completely sidestepped my post and you have nothing substantial to say in response to it.
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  #56  
Old 06-05-2020, 8:05 AM
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"100k dead from the virus" gets used a lot for arguments fin favor of the lock-down. But as has been demonstrated over and over, that number has been grossly inflated.

Grossly Inflated.
This keeps getting parroted, but every time I ask for a source, I get the same group of 3-4 people attacking me and then refusing to provide credible sources.

Do you want to be the one who changes that?
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  #57  
Old 06-05-2020, 8:17 AM
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It didn't go unnoticed that you completely sidestepped my post and you have nothing substantial to say in response to it.
Seriously, you want a response to that drivel? You know I had thought about that... you challenging me for calling out CALBAR on a political stance, but it's low hanging fruit.

I didn't really sidestep it so much as brush it off as ridiculous. You refer to disputed numbers as fact, and when you do that any further discussion becomes pretty silly.
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  #58  
Old 06-05-2020, 8:29 AM
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Originally Posted by SanDiego619 View Post
The jig is up, the virus isn't as bad as they said. Let's see if our test guineapig rioters caused a spike. I'll bet not.
Been almost 2 weeks since Memorial Day, and they have said Osage Beach has had NO spike, same as other places that partied.
I believe you would win that bet by a long shot

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  #59  
Old 06-05-2020, 8:39 AM
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Seriously, you want a response to that drivel? You know I had thought about that... you challenging me for calling out CALBAR on a political stance, but it's low hanging fruit.

I didn't really sidestep it so much as brush it off as ridiculous. You refer to disputed numbers as fact, and when you do that any further discussion becomes pretty silly.
Still no response from you, then? Wow. Keep up the political bickering on the graves on 110,000 dead Americans. That's very patriotic of you.
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  #60  
Old 06-05-2020, 9:42 AM
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You're not understanding how this works. We chose to "flatten the curve", Sweden chose to let the virus run. The final death count is the area under the curve - there's no escape. Our covid epidemic will be less severe than that of Sweden but it will run longer.

They are already done, look at their daily deaths:
Correct, flattening the curve extends it, however Sweden has not come anywhere close to herd immunity by their own admission, so all they have to show for their no-lock down response is double the fatalities.

In a country with the size and population density of a smaller US state their numbers are of course smaller, but here in the US twice the current fatality percentage would be 100,000 "additional" deaths and counting.

Last edited by DJD100; 06-05-2020 at 10:30 AM..
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  #61  
Old 06-05-2020, 10:23 AM
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Originally Posted by tuna quesadilla View Post
Still no response from you, then? Wow. Keep up the political bickering on the graves on 110,000 dead Americans. That's very patriotic of you.
Yeah I'm dancing on the graves of dead Americans, you got me.
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  #62  
Old 06-05-2020, 10:25 AM
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Still no response from you, then? Wow. Keep up the political bickering on the graves on 110,000 dead Americans. That's very patriotic of you.
There's political and there's political:
- 'Political' on the CGN forum: Kes doesn't want us bashing Trump etc, or intentionally making things political. Hence the new set of rules in the sticky.
- 'Political' nature of the covid, BLM: This is just a fact of life. WE have not made the issues political, but they are. Liberals support the lockdowns, conservatives do not (for the most part)


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Originally Posted by DJD100 View Post
Correct, flattening the curve extends it, however Sweden has not come anywhere close to herd immunity by their own admission, so all they have to show for their no-lock down response is double the fatalities.

In a country with the size and population density of a smaller US state their numbers are of course smaller, but here in the US twice the current fatality percentage would be 100,000 deaths and counting.
Will anyone achieve 'herd immunity'? Will there ever be a vaccine? No one knows - there has never been a human vaccine for a corona virus. There is also no long term immunity against a corona virus.

Either we stay locked up and die inside our homes, or roll the dice and get on with life. I've chosen to go with the latter option instead of living in fear.
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Old 06-05-2020, 10:39 AM
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Originally Posted by tuna quesadilla View Post
This keeps getting parroted, but every time I ask for a source, I get the same group of 3-4 people attacking me and then refusing to provide credible sources.

Do you want to be the one who changes that?
All over the web, man. Don't be lazy, do your own searches if you want to know the truth and not just freak out.

But, here... this'll get you started:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/14/n...us-deaths.html

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ng/3020778001/

https://www.denverpost.com/2020/05/1...hs-fatalities/

https://coloradosun.com/2020/05/15/c...h-certificate/

A sample, salient quote:

Quote:
New York City on Tuesday reported a coronavirus death toll total topping 10,000 people after adding an additional category for who is counted. The city reported the deaths of 3,778 people who were never tested or hospitalized for the virus, but whose death appeared to be due to COVID-19 symptoms. The death certificates for these victims list the cause of death as "COVID-19 or an equivalent.
TRANSLATION: "He's dead, looks like the Kung-Flu must have got him. Add it to the count."
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Last edited by bigbossman; 06-05-2020 at 10:49 AM..
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  #64  
Old 06-05-2020, 10:47 AM
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Originally Posted by tuna quesadilla View Post
Still no response from you, then? Wow. Keep up the political bickering on the graves on 110,000 dead Americans. That's very patriotic of you.
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Originally Posted by ACfixer View Post
Yeah I'm dancing on the graves of dead Americans, you got me.
Looks to me like the Tuna fellow is the one waving the bloody rag about, trying to use it to dissuade reasoned discussion. Diane Fienstein used to wave the bloody rag around too, when pushing for more gun control. Sure beats having to come up with a cogent argument, and it appeals to low information bystanders.
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Last edited by bigbossman; 06-05-2020 at 11:06 AM..
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  #65  
Old 06-05-2020, 10:50 AM
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Will anyone achieve 'herd immunity'? Will there ever be a vaccine? No one knows - there has never been a human vaccine for a corona virus. There is also no long term immunity against a corona virus.

Either we stay locked up and die inside our homes, or roll the dice and get on with life. I've chosen to go with the latter option instead of living in fear.
True, though CA is already open for the most part, with some restrictions still in place depending on crowd size and their ability to socially distance etc. This is very rough on pro sports and pro entertainment, and will continue to be for a while due to the crowd sizes.

So no, you don't have to stay locked up, though you should practice social distancing and wear a mask when you cannot maintain social distancing around those not in your immediate household.

It's really not that hard to try and manage the transmission of SARS CoV-2 with respect to other people, while still going about the majority of your normal life in most cases. The problem of course is the exponential spread.

If you want to look cool keep your cowboy/bandit bandana on and just pull it up when you need it, and if you need to be safer have a respirator mask in your pocket along with some hand sanitizer and throw-away gloves.

I'm semi-retired and train German Shepherds so I already had the hand sanitizer and throw-away gloves LOL, just needed to add a respirator mask/bandit bandana to my rig.
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  #66  
Old 06-05-2020, 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted by bigbossman View Post
Looks to me like the Tuna fellow is the one waving the bloody rag about, trying to use it to try dissuade reasoned discussion. Diane Fienstein used to wave the bloody rag around too, when pushing for more gun control. Sure beats having to come up with a cogent argument, and it appeals to low information bystanders.
I couldn't have said it better, but I'm not going to waste time trying to convince him of that.
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  #67  
Old 06-05-2020, 11:49 AM
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Mass looters, rioters and protestors cured covid! Amazing!!
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Old 06-05-2020, 12:58 PM
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Mass looters, rioters and protestors cured covid! Amazing!!
Yeah - mask/no mask and social distancing is really a moot point now, what with all the swarms of folks running around in large groups touching everything. Say "goodbye" to any hope of contact tracing.
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Old 06-05-2020, 4:20 PM
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Couple of thing to consider. The total death count, over time, is not impacted by social counter measures. The idea of flattening the curve became an anti Trump weapon so it was continued forever. It was supposed to be only two weeks to prevent overloading the hospitals. No matter what we did the total number of illnesses will be the same. The are under the curve, total death, is the same. Tall pointy peak or wide round hill, the area is the same.

Second, we do not have a control group so we will never know if counter measures had any effect. IT is invalid to assume wearing masks and being anti social saved lives. Everyone has or will be exposed to the virus at some point. Their outcome as a patient is predetermined. Get sick now or later, it has no effect. Not overloading the medical resources could make a difference. We checked that box a long time ago.

An absurd example of this concept goes like this. Every one who ate carrots in 1901 is dead. Therefore, carrots cause death.

Finally check the CDC website. The weekly death total is down again. We are almost at baseline. Time to stop the stupidity and get back to normal life, IMHO.
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Old 06-05-2020, 4:25 PM
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Couple of thing to consider. The total death count, over time, is not impacted by social counter measures. The idea of flattening the curve became an anti Trump weapon so it was continued forever. It was supposed to be only two weeks to prevent overloading the hospitals. No matter what we did the total number of illnesses will be the same. The are under the curve, total death, is the same. Tall pointy peak or wide round hill, the area is the same.
I have been saying this since early March Scota, most people cannot get this through their thick head.
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Old 06-05-2020, 4:28 PM
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Default The Narrative

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Originally Posted by SanDiego619 View Post
LOL, the Freakers are going to be so upset!!!
Yeah, it's a shame about the narrative.
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Old 06-05-2020, 4:42 PM
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Couple of thing to consider. The total death count, over time, is not impacted by social counter measures. The idea of flattening the curve became an anti Trump weapon so it was continued forever. It was supposed to be only two weeks to prevent overloading the hospitals. No matter what we did the total number of illnesses will be the same. The are under the curve, total death, is the same. Tall pointy peak or wide round hill, the area is the same.
No, that's patently false. One of the bigger problems with SARS-CoV-2 isn't the fatality rate -- which is still somewhat disputed but nontrivial -- but, instead, the hospitalization rate. The whole point of "curve flattening" is to keep infections at a level the health care system can handle, or else a large proportion of those hospitalizations become fatalities. This is part of why the USA has come out better than Europe, and in some ways even Japan... our health care system is vastly more expensive than theirs, but in return, it is better resourced.

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Finally check the CDC website. The weekly death total is down again. We are almost at baseline. Time to stop the stupidity and get back to normal life, IMHO.
Not a good idea to treat this so homogenously. There are many areas in the nation where rates are low and the above advice is reasonable. In others, this isn't so. Some places, unfortunately including where I live, rates are higher than ever, still increasing, and accelerating. This disaster can be managed better, but it calls for active management, not denial.
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Old 06-05-2020, 4:47 PM
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No, that's patently false. One of the bigger problems with SARS-CoV-2 isn't the fatality rate -- which is still somewhat disputed but nontrivial -- but, instead, the hospitalization rate. The whole point of "curve flattening" is to keep infections at a level the health care system can handle, or else a large proportion of those hospitalizations become fatalities. This is part of why the USA has come out better than Europe, and in some ways even Japan... our health care system is vastly more expensive than theirs, but in return, it is better resourced.



Not a good idea to treat this so homogenously. There are many areas in the nation where rates are low and the above advice is reasonable. In others, this isn't so. Some places, unfortunately including where I live, rates are higher than ever, still increasing, and accelerating. This disaster can be managed better, but it calls for active management, not denial.
Look a the CDC PDF I linked to. California is green. That indicates minimal covid and covid like activity. The CDC admits it is over.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...06-05-2020.pdf

Page 6

At this point wearing useless masks, rubber gloves, and the social distancing is foolishness. It is like wearing a condom to the high school dance, "just in case I get lucky".

Last edited by Scota4570; 06-05-2020 at 4:54 PM..
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Old 06-05-2020, 4:50 PM
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Look a the CDC map I linked to. California is green. That indicates minimal covid and covid like activity. The CDC admits it is over.
Surely you can't be that simple. California is not a monolith. You would be hard pressed to find a more diverse country of its size.

At the county level, there are five counties that have yet to report a single infection. But there are others, obviously including LA, that are not in good shape at all.

One size fits all, right? All Californians should behave the same, right? That's your proposal?
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Old 06-05-2020, 4:59 PM
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Mass looters, rioters and protestors cured covid! Amazing!!
And there will be something else to quell that problem - it will be just as controversial as the previous two issues - and yes, it will be equally political.

Its as if I've already read the book.
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Old 06-06-2020, 8:03 AM
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I have no problem with anyone taking any voluntary "safety measures" that they choose. They can stay home forever, wear a mask alone in their car, or a tin foil hat. That is freedom.

Taking away my freedom of association, insisting I wear a mask, and forcing me to cower at home, is stealing my freedom. That is not acceptable.

The CDC data shows that the risks are now insignificant. Taking another's freedom over imaginary virus partials is wrong.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...iew/index.html

Updated: 2/3 rds down the page, "Influenza-Like Illness (ILI) Activity Level Indicator Determined by Data Reported to ILINet"

Nottice the whole country has "minimal" activity. It is all dark green, they do not have a lower category. Only Idaho has "low activity".

I repeat, it is over. Any further restrictions are political manipulations.

Last edited by Scota4570; 06-06-2020 at 12:28 PM..
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