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Survival and Preparations Long and short term survival and 'prepping'.

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  #641  
Old 05-23-2014, 7:39 AM
sixoclockhold sixoclockhold is offline
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Originally Posted by Supertac916 View Post
Announced about an hour ago, Barclay's bank fined for price manipulation on gold. You could add them to the list with JP Morgan, Goldman, and various other large banks that have been caught and fined for PM price manipulation.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A4M06620140523
Ten years worth, not a bad gig if you can get it. The fine is ridiculously low. The financial community has stole the life out of the poor and middle class for decades.

Greed....jump MF's jump
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  #642  
Old 05-23-2014, 7:53 AM
glockman19 glockman19 is offline
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I expect Precious Metals to be a trade once again around the end of August or early September, because quantitative easing is expected to cease in October. It is then that I expect to see PM's as a trade again.

I hope to buy Silver and gold once again at that time. I also will be actively trading the VIX. (Full Disclosure; I lost $60,000 last year betting on the VIX).
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  #643  
Old 05-23-2014, 8:06 AM
keenkeen keenkeen is offline
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Originally Posted by glockman19 View Post
I expect Precious Metals to be a trade once again around the end of August or early September, because quantitative easing is expected to cease in October. It is then that I expect to see PM's as a trade again.

I hope to buy Silver and gold once again at that time. I also will be actively trading the VIX. (Full Disclosure; I lost $60,000 last year betting on the VIX).
Good luck in the coming year! Regardless of all the emotion and politics and TFH that gets thrown around this thread I never like to see folks losing money in the markets.

I do like that you say "betting in the VIX" cause that is really what it comes down to with those types of plays.
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  #644  
Old 05-23-2014, 8:09 AM
Supertac916 Supertac916 is offline
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Originally Posted by keenkeen View Post
This one?

Rich Buy Real Estate, Poor Want Gold


http://www.bloombergview.com/article...poor-want-gold

I'm sure this will receive a warm welcome here in OT.

I'd agree with that article, but there's a lot more to it because it's not because the wealthy are more educated about economics. I work with highly intelligent individuals and those making $500k-$1.3 million do little research on what's going on. They don't make that kind of income by sitting at home reading financial news. They are working long hours and on their time off they're spending it with their families. Inflation on food, gas, energy, even if it increases by 20-50% doesn't really impact their every day lives compared to the poor and standard middle class.

The ones in the financial world are concerned about what's going on. However, they're trying to figure out how to manage assets, when everything does turn and they do have insurance backing their personal investments.

I met with a portfolio manager for a multi billion REIT portfolio and after he gave me his sales pitch. I asked him what he thought about what was going on. He does have money in the market, in his fund, and in real estate. However, he mentioned that he owns acreage, with a well, nearby stream, generators, guns, ammo, reloading supplies, food storage, solar, gold, and pretty much a underground bunker. This is his investment property, but he lives in his multi-million dollar mansion in Danville during the week.

I met with another portfolio manager on Monday, who flew in from New York to make his rounds selling his portfolio. The company manages $160 billion of assets in the private BDC sector. Their company has been picking up contracts with JP Morgan, Goldman, UBS, and a few other banks to hold their assets on their books. It's because there is a slough of banking regulations coming due to them being caught manipulating the markets and trades, so they won't be able to put the assets on their books. However, what they are doing instead is using subsidiary companies or partnering with firms like the one this manager represented. The bankers quit their jobs and joined the equity management firms, so the assets are not held at the banks books, but on the partnered company. However, managed by the same bank employees from the same banks that were fined for market manipulation.

This portfolio manager was a banker for JP Morgan as well prior to him joining this group. When my partners and I asked him about his portfolio, which was stated as 96% Senior Secured Debt fixed and floating rate, but had 64% 1st lien and 32% 2nd lien compared to his competitors figures. He fumbled because he couldn't answer the questions. He went on about how they manage $160 billion and he doesn't pay attention to the little guys. He also tried to impress us with how much the 3 founders of the group made last year. They split $1 billion of fees between the three of them, which was suppose to get us to recommend his product to our clients. I also asked about Deutsche banks problems with capitalization and offering certain investors a 30% discount on their shares. He brought up the fines with some of the other banks, but couldn't respond when I asked him about the billions JP Morgan and Goldman paid in fines as well. He pulled out his iphone to show us numbers, but then put his phone away saying that the numbers were too complicated for us to understand.

Instead he took out his pen and made us a diagram of how the "New" way of doing things are being done. When asking him about downside risk he tried to shift his answer to another topic and went back to the little guys and how big they were.

Everything works great and fine until it doesn't. By the way, if I recommend his product to my clients I would get paid a 7% commission. I could easily recommend $1 million to $2 million into this product amongst my clients, which would pay me $70,000-$140,000. However, I don't trust it because of who is running it and how he answered our questions. Will it work out? Maybe, but my job is to understand the underlying risk because my clients are too busy making money and enjoying their lives. They shift the worry and responsibility onto me to give them advice that is in their best interest.

It's not only the poor that invest in gold. The rich do as well, but they have real estate, stocks, bonds, businesses, etc. as well. The poor and middle class do not have the options of that kind of diversification. They also experience things differently in regards to inflation, unemployment, and various other economic aspects. If food increases 50% it doesn't impact the wealthy individuals life styles immediately. However, the wealthy need the middle class to support their incomes and if the cost of health insurance, food, gas, energy, housing, etc. continues to increase, it leaves less discretionary income. Hence, many companies are missing their quarterly numbers, but it's due to the weather. Right?
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  #645  
Old 05-23-2014, 8:49 AM
Supertac916 Supertac916 is offline
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Originally Posted by glockman19 View Post
I expect Precious Metals to be a trade once again around the end of August or early September, because quantitative easing is expected to cease in October. It is then that I expect to see PM's as a trade again.

I hope to buy Silver and gold once again at that time. I also will be actively trading the VIX. (Full Disclosure; I lost $60,000 last year betting on the VIX).
Ouch, sorry to hear about the VIX trade glockman. It's a very complicated and difficult play. I could see why you made that bet, but we know that the markets aren't running on fundamentals. It's also difficult to figure out how the market or PM's will respond, when or if QE is stopped. The banks have a tendency to back door QE like sixoclock mentioned before. Suddenly Belgium is the 3rd largest holder of US treasuries and they purchased an additional $180 billion in the last few months. I question why would a country with a relatively small GDP of $446 billion purchase that size of an investment paying 2%. China and many other countries no longer see US Treasuries as a "Safe" investment and willing to accept 2% for it. They've been loading up on gold, gold mines, and gold production. My guess is so when the IMF meeting occurs in December, they will be added to the basket of currency to later be used to replace the USD. Granted we don't know when this will happen. It could be soon, but it could be ten years from now. The only ones that know are the ones running the show.
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  #646  
Old 05-23-2014, 9:08 AM
Supertac916 Supertac916 is offline
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Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
Ten years worth, not a bad gig if you can get it. The fine is ridiculously low. The financial community has stole the life out of the poor and middle class for decades.

Greed....jump MF's jump
They're slaps on the wrist because they made billions and they're too big to fail or prosecute. It is sad to see what has happened to the poor and middle class over the years. However, they keep voting in the same kinds of politicians, who are looking out for the lobbyists, ultra wealthy, corporations, that helped them get elected.

Unfortunately, I think the ones jumping are the ones with ethics and a conscious, who couldn't deal with the stress anymore. Either that or they were going to be a scape goat. The ones remaining are the narcissists, who love the power that comes with being a ultra elite. Not all those in the financial industry are out to screw people over.
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  #647  
Old 05-23-2014, 9:14 AM
smashycrashy smashycrashy is offline
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Originally Posted by Supertac916 View Post
Suddenly Belgium is the 3rd largest holder of US treasuries and they purchased an additional $180 billion in the last few months.
The whole focus on the Belgium treasury buying is another bizarre focus (aka waste of time) in the tin foil hat world

Quote:
Traders say reasons for Treasury holdings to climb so sharply in the home of the European Commission may reflect the secret buying of top-rated sovereign debt by other countries using Brussels as a financial centre. They also suggest that more investors may be utilising the clearing and securities lending services of Euroclear, the bank-owned central securities depository and custody service headquartered in that city.

“We know it’s not Belgium buying, it’s way too much. We need to look at that country’s custody services,” said Marc Chandler, chief currency strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman.

Gennadiy Goldberg, strategist at TD Securities, said: “We suspect that the increase in Belgian holdings may be the product of another entity moving their holdings into the nation rather than Belgium itself purchasing such a vast amount of Treasuries.”
Another non-event. Stop reading ZH.

I simply cannot believe that you are a FINANCIAL ADVISOR. One of the best reasons in the world to index via Vanguard, super low fees and you avoid people who get caught up in the petty weirdness like zerohedge.
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  #648  
Old 05-23-2014, 9:17 AM
sixoclockhold sixoclockhold is offline
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Supertac

Good stuff there. BTW you made a comment that "if" you have significant assets I'd insure some of it with physical PM's."

So the question is, have you ever had say a couple kilo's of gold coins in front of you, running your fingers through them?

Next question. How could that not give you a rise?
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  #649  
Old 05-23-2014, 9:23 AM
sixoclockhold sixoclockhold is offline
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Smashy

You just don't get the levity factor over at ZH.

No ones putting all their eggs in one basket. What were doing is making jokes about how screwed up the system is and ZH brings forth comment you won't find in mainstream media.

Now go
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU
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  #650  
Old 05-23-2014, 9:24 AM
glockman19 glockman19 is offline
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Originally Posted by keenkeen View Post
Good luck in the coming year! Regardless of all the emotion and politics and TFH that gets thrown around this thread I never like to see folks losing money in the markets.

I do like that you say "betting in the VIX" cause that is really what it comes down to with those types of plays.
YES...it hurts...a lot. The last year has been tough for me. I tried to make educated bets and was stopped out on all of them. Selling health insurance is out until open enrollment begins later in the year, and every broker and agent is now promoting life and disability insurance. On top of losing 90% of my business due to the "recession".

And...Yes, the VIX is a bet on the direction of the S&P500. I'll try it again in August or September, buying October $17's, November $18's and December $20's.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Supertac916 View Post
Ouch, sorry to hear about the VIX trade glockman. It's a very complicated and difficult play. I could see why you made that bet, but we know that the markets aren't running on fundamentals. It's also difficult to figure out how the market or PM's will respond, when or if QE is stopped. The banks have a tendency to back door QE like sixoclock mentioned before. Suddenly Belgium is the 3rd largest holder of US treasuries and they purchased an additional $180 billion in the last few months. I question why would a country with a relatively small GDP of $446 billion purchase that size of an investment paying 2%. China and many other countries no longer see US Treasuries as a "Safe" investment and willing to accept 2% for it. They've been loading up on gold, gold mines, and gold production. My guess is so when the IMF meeting occurs in December, they will be added to the basket of currency to later be used to replace the USD. Granted we don't know when this will happen. It could be soon, but it could be ten years from now. The only ones that know are the ones running the show.
I agree.
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  #651  
Old 05-23-2014, 9:56 AM
Supertac916 Supertac916 is offline
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Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
Smashy

You just don't get the levity factor over at ZH.

No ones putting all their eggs in one basket. What were doing is making jokes about how screwed up the system is and ZH brings forth comment you won't find in mainstream media.

Now go
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jllJ-HeErjU
I actually like Zerohedge because it gives me additional information to research on, which often shows up in mainstream a few weeks later. Here's a prime example

https://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/brea...151335338.html

It's blamed on the weather, which does have something to do with it. However, it also has to do with rising taxes and rising costs due to real inflation on feed, gas, water, healthcare benefits for employees, etc. This has a lot to do with overall economics, which is tied to the devaluation of the dollar.

One of my clients retired as the CEO of one of the largest cattle unions in the country two years ago. She mentioned that we will be seeing significant rises in beef costs due to a shortage because many ranchers have been forced out of business because of rising factors as I mentioned above.

Is everything on ZH accurate? No, but I do find some good information in some of their articles. However, I have to do research outside of ZH and mainstream to make a conclusion.
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  #652  
Old 05-23-2014, 10:02 AM
Supertac916 Supertac916 is offline
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Originally Posted by smashycrashy View Post
The whole focus on the Belgium treasury buying is another bizarre focus (aka waste of time) in the tin foil hat world



Another non-event. Stop reading ZH.

I simply cannot believe that you are a FINANCIAL ADVISOR. One of the best reasons in the world to index via Vanguard, super low fees and you avoid people who get caught up in the petty weirdness like zerohedge.
LOL.. Well, since my average client only lost 12% in the last crash and they're better off today, than if they bought and held the indexes, paid low fees, etc. I've earned my fee and income, which I will do again

That's the difference between guys who think they know everything and those of us who know that we don't. It's much easier to lose 40-50% of your own money, but my clients would not be willing to pay me a fee, should I drive their portfolio's off a cliff. I benefit from those who dollar cost average because someone needs to keep buying, when the rest of us are off loading our positions.
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  #653  
Old 05-23-2014, 11:15 AM
Supertac916 Supertac916 is offline
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Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
Supertac

Good stuff there. BTW you made a comment that "if" you have significant assets I'd insure some of it with physical PM's."

So the question is, have you ever had say a couple kilo's of gold coins in front of you, running your fingers through them?

Next question. How could that not give you a rise?
Yes, the most gold and silver I've seen anyone take delivery on was one of my senior partners back in 2006. The staff was joking around about how heavy the boxes were and it would be funny if it was gold. He made a pretty decent profit off of that investment and still holds a decent portion of it.

I don't see my clients because I recommend them to purchase from APMEX to take delivery. They could buy it from me, but it costs them more and I'd have to deliver it to them. I'm fine taking checks, but transporting gold or silver is a little to risky for me. That's all I need is to get robbed at gun point and lose their assets.

Did I get a rise from it? LOL. Not really because I've been around so many different kinds of nice assets you get accustomed to it. 9,000 sq/ft homes, Lambo's, Ferarri's, Masserati's, Porches, house boats, etc. don't really do it for me either. When I look at our portfolio's it's numbers with extra zero's at the end of them. However, I do realize that all of those assets are backed by our clients hard earned money, so I don't take it lightly.

Last edited by Supertac916; 05-23-2014 at 11:18 AM..
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  #654  
Old 05-23-2014, 12:05 PM
Supertac916 Supertac916 is offline
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Originally Posted by glockman19 View Post
YES...it hurts...a lot. The last year has been tough for me. I tried to make educated bets and was stopped out on all of them. Selling health insurance is out until open enrollment begins later in the year, and every broker and agent is now promoting life and disability insurance. On top of losing 90% of my business due to the "recession".

And...Yes, the VIX is a bet on the direction of the S&P500. I'll try it again in August or September, buying October $17's, November $18's and December $20's.



I agree.
Sorry to hear about your business because it has a direct correlation to how the average American is doing. Many can barely pay their bills let alone buy life and disability insurances. Also, many individuals will just shop online for the cheapest policies they can find. Brokers could do the same at the same cost, but insurance guys get a bad reputation as being salesman. Granted there are those, who sell products that are not in the best interest for the client. However, it is a detriment on the honest ones trying to make a living. I've been very fortunate and I don't take it for granted that I work with the upper income spectrum. I have many old colleagues and friends, who are struggling in the business. Hope things pickup for you
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  #655  
Old 05-23-2014, 12:55 PM
keenkeen keenkeen is offline
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Originally Posted by Supertac916 View Post
LOL.. Well, since my average client only lost 12% in the last crash and they're better off today, than if they bought and held the indexes, paid low fees, etc. I've earned my fee and income, which I will do again

That's the difference between guys who think they know everything and those of us who know that we don't. It's much easier to lose 40-50% of your own money, but my clients would not be willing to pay me a fee, should I drive their portfolio's off a cliff. I benefit from those who dollar cost average because someone needs to keep buying, when the rest of us are off loading our positions.
Ok...now you have my full attention.

Based on the above 12% average client loss during the last downturn, can you share what their average return was for 2012? And 2013?
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  #656  
Old 05-23-2014, 3:19 PM
Supertac916 Supertac916 is offline
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Underperformed the indexes in both years on the average portfolio. The average portfolio performed similar to a 80/20 diversified portfolio, but with much less risk.

Net fees:
14% in 2012, where the S&P did 17%
18% in 2013, where the S&P did 24%
This year the indexes haven't done much yet, so it performs fairly closely to the indexes right now.

When the market lost 57% from Oct. 9th, 2007 to Mar. 9th 2009, my clients lost 12%. I didn't need to be overly aggressive and take on unnecessary risk to play catch up. Index's weren't at the Oct 9, 2007 highs, until April 2nd, 2013. Obviously, not including additional contributions on the way down or up. Everyone's results will vary fractionally depending on when they put their contributions in.

As in anything everything is 20/20 hindsight. The vast majority of my clients are fine with those results. There were a few that were concerned, but when I tell them we could shift them to the more aggressive portfolio, or turn off their fees, and put them in the Index they get uneasy.

Some clients have their own fun portfolio's, which we also review or they'll call me to get my thoughts on the position. I also have portfolio's that are highly risky, which I monitor and watch daily. Those have performed very well, but I will not do that with their retirement accounts.

I'm not saying the indexes won't out perform asset managers in the long term. If we knew what the future holds, than we'd all be billionaires. If that's something people want to do that's their hard earned money. My clients are fairly wealthy already and they are more interested in preserving their assets, than being extremely aggressive betting that everything is fine. Also, they don't trust that it's guaranteed should we experience another 2000 or 2008 that it will rebound again in 5 years like the last two.

1996-2000: 106% increase
2000-2002: 49% decrease
2002-2007: 101% increase
2007-2009: 57% decrease
2009-Today: 180% increase

By the way, HP announced laying off 16,000 employees today and their stock rallied 6.5%. It's good in the short term for investors, but it's not a good long term indicator. Eventually, everything comes back into balance.

We'll find out in the next several years, if I'm out of a job or not

Last edited by Supertac916; 05-23-2014 at 3:25 PM..
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  #657  
Old 05-23-2014, 3:42 PM
keenkeen keenkeen is offline
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Originally Posted by Supertac916 View Post
Underperformed the indexes in both years on the average portfolio. The average portfolio performed similar to a 80/20 diversified portfolio, but with much less risk.

Net fees:
14% in 2012, where the S&P did 17%
18% in 2013, where the S&P did 24%
This year the indexes haven't done much yet, so it performs fairly closely to the indexes right now.

When the market lost 57% from Oct. 9th, 2007 to Mar. 9th 2009, my clients lost 12%. I didn't need to be overly aggressive and take on unnecessary risk to play catch up. Index's weren't at the Oct 9, 2007 highs, until April 2nd, 2013. Obviously, not including additional contributions on the way down or up. Everyone's results will vary fractionally depending on when they put their contributions in.

As in anything everything is 20/20 hindsight. The vast majority of my clients are fine with those results. There were a few that were concerned, but when I tell them we could shift them to the more aggressive portfolio, or turn off their fees, and put them in the Index they get uneasy.

Some clients have their own fun portfolio's, which we also review or they'll call me to get my thoughts on the position. I also have portfolio's that are highly risky, which I monitor and watch daily. Those have performed very well, but I will not do that with their retirement accounts.

I'm not saying the indexes won't out perform asset managers in the long term. If we knew what the future holds, than we'd all be billionaires. If that's something people want to do that's their hard earned money. My clients are fairly wealthy already and they are more interested in preserving their assets, than being extremely aggressive betting that everything is fine. Also, they don't trust that it's guaranteed should we experience another 2000 or 2008 that it will rebound again in 5 years like the last two.

1996-2000: 106% increase
2000-2002: 49% decrease
2002-2007: 101% increase
2007-2009: 57% decrease
2009-Today: 180% increase

By the way, HP announced laying off 16,000 employees today and their stock rallied 6.5%. It's good in the short term for investors, but it's not a good long term indicator. Eventually, everything comes back into balance.

We'll find out in the next several years, if I'm out of a job or not
Great info and thank you for sharing.

I happen to be a former long term HP'er so don't get me started on their stock...What a roller coaster over the last 20 years.

I am curious how you are arriving at to your 2013 S&P performance numbers net of fees. I thought the S&P did just under 30% for 2013?
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  #658  
Old 05-23-2014, 4:24 PM
Supertac916 Supertac916 is offline
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Originally Posted by keenkeen View Post
Great info and thank you for sharing.

I happen to be a former long term HP'er so don't get me started on their stock...What a roller coaster over the last 20 years.

I am curious how you are arriving at to your 2013 S&P performance numbers net of fees. I thought the S&P did just under 30% for 2013?
No problem, the S&P was at 1466 on Dec.31, 2012 and ended at 1832, which is actually closer to 25%, than the 24% I posted. The Russell Midcap and Small caps ended up in their 30's. I have the list somewhere at my office with the exact numbers. I just pulled the rough ones off of the Yahoo Index chart.

No kidding on the rollercoaster ride. The senior partner that purchased all of the gold told me about the late 90's at HP. He did financial seminars for HP and a few hundred other companies in the Silicon Valley at the time with a team of 15-20. The stories of the tech bubble were insane. People in their 20's worth several million in stock options. Young couples worth $10-$15 million as employees with some of the start ups. The vast majority ended up getting greedy and never diversified.

I remember a story that he met with a 24 year old girl that was pregnant. Between her and her husband they had $14 million of their company stock options. She wanted to reach $20 million, but he recommended for her to diversify, so she gave him $100,000 to invest. After the bubble popped, she called him up and needed the money.

I've met several of his clients that listened and they've been happily retired for the last 14 years. Many of them are in their late 40's and early 50's right now.

Last edited by Supertac916; 05-23-2014 at 7:59 PM..
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  #659  
Old 05-24-2014, 4:05 PM
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I started this thread a year ago to get other's thoughts on the drop in price of Gold and Silver.

Well, I have enjoyed many of the posts but found it funny that so many projections on what would happen "in the next month" never came to be. I wonder how much was spent based off of these projections. And you know, I didn't see one post by a projector apologizing or admitting they were wrong.

I spoke with my financial adviser about the post and she almost rolled her eyes. She likes to use a chart titled Morningstar Andex Chart - https://www.google.com/search?q=2014+andex+chart+pdf

Long term, PMs are a less than mediocre investment given the performance of everything else. Sure, you can point to the late 70's and late 00's and say look; real money could have been made here. But in life, you don't get to pick and choose after the fact and over the long term, things in general out perform it.

I know many in this forum are buying it with the impression they can use it for currency in case of the short or long term end of life as we know it. I just wonder how wise that investment is. Lots of opinions about the value of a gold coin over a can of beans and that you can't eat gold. None the less, there could very well be situations that are less dire where it would help, like buying your way past a check point, paying off a dirty cop or border guard.

Whats my point...nothing really. Just observations and maybe the hope of getting people to think about things rather then locking into to only one possible solution. Eh, whatever
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  #660  
Old 05-24-2014, 4:16 PM
keenkeen keenkeen is offline
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Originally Posted by TheChief View Post
I started this thread a year ago to get other's thoughts on the drop in price of Gold and Silver.

Well, I have enjoyed many of the posts but found it funny that so many projections on what would happen "in the next month" never came to be. I wonder how much was spent based off of these projections. And you know, I didn't see one post by a projector apologizing or admitting they were wrong.

I spoke with my financial adviser about the post and she almost rolled her eyes. She likes to use a chart titled Morningstar Andex Chart - https://www.google.com/search?q=2014+andex+chart+pdf

Long term, PMs are a less than mediocre investment given the performance of everything else. Sure, you can point to the late 70's and late 00's and say look; real money could have been made here. But in life, you don't get to pick and choose after the fact and over the long term, things in general out perform it.

I know many in this forum are buying it with the impression they can use it for currency in case of the short or long term end of life as we know it. I just wonder how wise that investment is. Lots of opinions about the value of a gold coin over a can of beans and that you can't eat gold. None the less, there could very well be situations that are less dire where it would help, like buying your way past a check point, paying off a dirty cop or border guard.

Whats my point...nothing really. Just observations and maybe the hope of getting people to think about things rather then locking into to only one possible solution. Eh, whatever
There are also threads earlier than this one that have the same pattern and many of the same participants...

There was a similar thread for the next stock market crash...nobody has bumped that one in quite a while. I wonder why?

Whenever you read posts by the true believers that are saying the end is near just remember they have been posting that for years...

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Old 05-25-2014, 5:56 AM
sixoclockhold sixoclockhold is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheChief View Post
I started this thread a year ago to get other's thoughts on the drop in price of Gold and Silver.

Well, I have enjoyed many of the posts but found it funny that so many projections on what would happen "in the next month" never came to be. I wonder how much was spent based off of these projections. And you know, I didn't see one post by a projector apologizing or admitting they were wrong.

I spoke with my financial adviser about the post and she almost rolled her eyes. She likes to use a chart titled Morningstar Andex Chart - https://www.google.com/search?q=2014+andex+chart+pdf

Long term, PMs are a less than mediocre investment given the performance of everything else. Sure, you can point to the late 70's and late 00's and say look; real money could have been made here. But in life, you don't get to pick and choose after the fact and over the long term, things in general out perform it.

I know many in this forum are buying it with the impression they can use it for currency in case of the short or long term end of life as we know it. I just wonder how wise that investment is. Lots of opinions about the value of a gold coin over a can of beans and that you can't eat gold. None the less, there could very well be situations that are less dire where it would help, like buying your way past a check point, paying off a dirty cop or border guard.

Whats my point...nothing really. Just observations and maybe the hope of getting people to think about things rather then locking into to only one possible solution. Eh, whatever
Sounds like you were expecting to be a commodity trader in Gold/silver. ha

That is not the purpose of owning PM's. Long term investment? Tell that to the central banks around the world and then explain to us why they haven't dumped this under preforming gem.

I own some CCI mini mags, velocitors, stingers that I paid an arm and a leg for during the shortage. Do I regret that purchase? No, I'm glad I own some of the best .22lr ammo out there, may come in handy someday. I started buying Gold/silver back in Aug 2013 because I thought it had retraced enough from it's high to begin a dollar cost average accumulation of the fine metal. See I like it. I haven't wavered from my plan, I continue to buy and my average today is slightly over $1300, I think $1,315 +vig. Oh sure it would be great to be in the green but that is not it's purpose or my intent. It's like the ammo, I'm glad I own some and will continue to acquire even if it drops to $700. Fine by me, I'm not a commodity trader in it. I'm a pirate who no longer believes in the strength of the dollar or the markets in general. That's not to say I don't own some, I do. Bonds, stocks and commercial RE. There is just times in one's life that they think owning a large cache of ammo is smart, got a problem with that?

Charts aren't worth the ink to print them. Welcome to the world of Bulshi my man, you're hooked line and sinker. Companies cook books, under preforming assets are dumped by indices and replaced with high flyers to keep the chart looking good.

Now back to your question, they may go down but the global economic ramifications of a slow down with printing presses running to beat the band, tend to make me believe there is more upside potential than down. Even with the manipulation to make Gold look like a relic for the trusty green back. At the end of the day, a Gold coin will probably buy the same thing it did 100 years ago, that's the beauty of it.
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Old 05-25-2014, 7:10 AM
sixoclockhold sixoclockhold is offline
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Here's a little factoid new comers probably don't know. In 1999-2000 the only other time in my life I was buying the physical metal, my sister had an anniversary around Easter. I bought the couple an ornament egg looking thingy about the size of a baseball in a clear box. I laced the inside with (7) 2000 Silver Eagles from the mint that had come out of a tube. They really liked it, even though PM's were really out of favor at the time. Silver was trading at just over $4 an ounce but did you know the vig was still at $3 an ounce? Yes, I had to pay just slightly over $7 each. Now today those un-circulated would go for around $25 on ebay each. Today because Silver is out of favor so much, Vig is only $2.45 at big dealers. If history repeats itself...heh heh Moral of the story is I got screwed in 2000, I paid a premium on a PM that was just crazy stupid, but look at it's value today.

That same year for Christmas I gave my sister 1/2 acre of some pretty sweet land all bought and paid for, so if that day came where she was ever destitute, she had a place to call home nobody could ever take away from her.

She hasn't sold either one of those gifts and I doubt she ever will, some things are meant for a good nights sleep.
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Old 05-27-2014, 8:31 AM
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Looks like it will be a 1.5-2% down day. Six's vaunted "golden cross" has reversed (it's a BS metric anyways but if you are going to hold it up as a positive when it happens then you must look at it as a negative when it reverses).

There continues to be no compelling case for gold.
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Old 05-27-2014, 8:46 AM
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Originally Posted by smashycrashy View Post
Looks like it will be a 1.5-2% down day. Six's vaunted "golden cross" has reversed (it's a BS metric anyways but if you are going to hold it up as a positive when it happens then you must look at it as a negative when it reverses).



There continues to be no compelling case for gold.

It's purdy!
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Old 05-27-2014, 9:08 AM
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It's purdy!
Honestly, this is a way better argument for owning it than anything I've ever read from six or ZH.
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Old 05-27-2014, 9:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheChief View Post
I started this thread a year ago to get other's thoughts on the drop in price of Gold and Silver.

Well, I have enjoyed many of the posts but found it funny that so many projections on what would happen "in the next month" never came to be. I wonder how much was spent based off of these projections. And you know, I didn't see one post by a projector apologizing or admitting they were wrong.

I spoke with my financial adviser about the post and she almost rolled her eyes. She likes to use a chart titled Morningstar Andex Chart - https://www.google.com/search?q=2014+andex+chart+pdf

Long term, PMs are a less than mediocre investment given the performance of everything else. Sure, you can point to the late 70's and late 00's and say look; real money could have been made here. But in life, you don't get to pick and choose after the fact and over the long term, things in general out perform it.

I know many in this forum are buying it with the impression they can use it for currency in case of the short or long term end of life as we know it. I just wonder how wise that investment is. Lots of opinions about the value of a gold coin over a can of beans and that you can't eat gold. None the less, there could very well be situations that are less dire where it would help, like buying your way past a check point, paying off a dirty cop or border guard.

Whats my point...nothing really. Just observations and maybe the hope of getting people to think about things rather then locking into to only one possible solution. Eh, whatever
Thanks Chief.

I'm sticking to my guns, (Pun intended).
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Old 05-27-2014, 10:22 AM
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Originally Posted by therealnickb View Post
It's purdy!
+1!
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Old 05-27-2014, 10:05 PM
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Charts like the Andex one come out every few years depending upon market conditions. When equities are doing well, the Andex is seen everywhere with market gurus extolling the virtues of stock -- "Over time, they always go up!". When real estate is on a roll, we see various charts showing how, over time, "real estate always goes up -- they don't make it anymore". And when the precious metals are screaming, the metals aficionados are eager to demonstrate the virtues of their investment of choice -- "it always holds its value -- and no counter-party risk".

And they're all correct. So we're faced with allocating our investments between the various assets or attempting to switch between them at opportune times -- definitely not easy nor convenient.
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Old 05-29-2014, 8:30 AM
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Thought this was an interesting article. The author tried to plot CPI vs gold (in various ways) and expected to find them correlated in some way. But his findings were the opposite.

In fact his findings are exactly what I'd expect over the long term regarding a commodity like gold. The world gets more efficient at extracting gold and so one wouldn't expect it to keep up with inflation:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2242...g?source=yahoo

Now for those about to post that CPI is BS (it isnt) and you must use shadowstats instead (you shouldnt)... realize that a bigger change in CPI would make the correlation look worse... not better.
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Old 05-29-2014, 8:50 AM
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Peanut-butter-BUYIN'-time!!!
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Old 05-29-2014, 9:55 AM
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Catch that knife!
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Old 05-29-2014, 6:12 PM
sixoclockhold sixoclockhold is offline
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Gallon of Milk $4.00

We are watching the dollar burn before our eyes.

"Euroclear is a Belgium based financial services company that specializes in the settlement of securities transactions as well as the safekeeping and asset servicing of these securities. It was founded in 1968 as part of J.P. Morgan & Co. to settle trades on the then developing eurobond market."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euroclear

Who is buying our debt? Oh yeah, same guys with the largest silver hoard eva !

So maybe I might buy a little more Silver?
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Old 05-29-2014, 8:11 PM
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Yep. Everyone died from no more milk ....

Catch that knife baby. But it's going to a long painful ride to the bottom.

Or just keep working and quit acting like the world is going to end.
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  #674  
Old 05-29-2014, 8:13 PM
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$500 worth of silver in January now worth about $450? $500 worth of apple paid a $3 dividend soon to be $6 and is running at $635 now.
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Old 05-29-2014, 8:21 PM
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$4.00/gal milk? Someone is shopping in the wrong places.
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Old 05-29-2014, 9:28 PM
smashycrashy smashycrashy is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by problemchild View Post
OMG are you kidding ???

In what bizzare universe are things getting better. 49% of working age adults are on the gubmint dole. 28% of the rest are unemployed. The US debt is 230 TRILLION!!!!!! New cars around the world are sitting stacked up in storage yards miles deep. The economy hinges on the brink of disaster worldwide. Things are getting better my azz!

Things are worse and getting worser!
FYI...
http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/s...2&postcount=43

http://www.calguns.net/calgunforum/s...7&postcount=44

less worser and worser than some on here might realize...
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  #677  
Old 05-29-2014, 10:00 PM
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Really? People fall off on unemployment. They dont get unlimited unemployment. People dont get 96 weeks of that stuff at all, VERY rarely do they. I was long term unemployed and got it for 24 weeks total. I stated my own business and am considered not looking for work, long term unemployed now.
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Old 05-29-2014, 10:07 PM
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Really? People fall off on unemployment. They dont get unlimited unemployment. People dont get 96 weeks of that stuff at all, VERY rarely do they. I was long term unemployed and got it for 24 weeks total. I stated my own business and am considered not looking for work, long term unemployed now.
So fine, discount the jobless claim chart (everyone isn't in that position but hey. lets assume everyone is)... now explain the other 19 charts... TOTAL employment is up, TOTAL spending is up, businesses are more profitable than ever, trucks are hauling more than ever, lots of people buyings lots of cars, home prices rising, industrial production at all time highs, retail sales at all time highs, ISM and Fed surveys showing solid growth...

Yet the end of the world is here?

If were starting to go into a recession at least SOME of these would be falling off the cliff (or spiking depending on the series)... none are...

The world isn't ending, we aren't going into a recession, if these are your motivation to buy gold then you are sorely mistaken.
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Old 05-30-2014, 5:57 AM
sixoclockhold sixoclockhold is offline
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smashy you don't really believe all that do you?

Try to find one thing, just one that isn't manipulated.

The middle class is hanging on by it's finger nails.

If TPTB can drive PM's especially Gold back to the double bottom ($1180) through paper manipulation, there will be more than just a few buying that triple bottom. Powder ready and waiting....Bring it !
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Old 05-30-2014, 6:45 AM
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Since you guys like to debate the current economic state so much, I figured I'd throw this article out:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/e...contracts.html

Would anyone here care to disagree with the author's observations?
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