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Survival and Preparations Long and short term survival and 'prepping'.

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  #881  
Old 09-08-2014, 2:45 PM
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I'm about to start buying silver again. One ounce generic silver rounds can be had for under $20 each shipped.
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  #882  
Old 09-08-2014, 7:05 PM
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Originally Posted by POLICESTATE View Post
Probably the same answer as to the question "How many guns does any one person need?"
Just one more!
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  #883  
Old 09-08-2014, 7:59 PM
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Originally Posted by SMOKEYMOUNTAIN View Post
I'm about to start buying silver again. One ounce generic silver rounds can be had for under $20 each shipped.
Dip your toe if you feel the need,but seriously, where did all the buy now guys go?

PM's have a long slow painful fall to NORMAL prices .

Best of luck
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  #884  
Old 09-09-2014, 12:48 PM
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Originally Posted by therealnickb View Post
Dip your toe if you feel the need,but seriously, where did all the buy now guys go?

PM's have a long slow painful fall to NORMAL prices .

Best of luck
Define "normal prices"...?
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  #885  
Old 09-09-2014, 1:06 PM
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IMO, that's when things are not moving consistently down. They should be level or rising slightly with inflation for a reasonable amount of time. What's reasonable is subjective though. Everyone's timeline and objectives are different.
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  #886  
Old 09-09-2014, 5:37 PM
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Banksters & ETF's...


BUY... while it's PHYSICALLY AVAILABLE, and the price is GOOD!
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  #887  
Old 09-09-2014, 7:23 PM
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Q: Why gold and silver?

A: Obama's Former Chief Economist Calls For An End To US Dollar Reserve Status

'Nuf said...

bv

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-0...reserve-status

Obama's Former Chief Economist Calls For An End To US Dollar Reserve Status

Quote:
Authored by Jared Bernstein, originally posted Op-Ed at The NY Times,

There are few truisms about the world economy, but for decades, one has been the role of the United States dollar as the world’s reserve currency. It’s a core principle of American economic policy. After all, who wouldn’t want their currency to be the one that foreign banks and governments want to hold in reserve?

But new research reveals that what was once a privilege is now a burden, undermining job growth, pumping up budget and trade deficits and inflating financial bubbles. To get the American economy on track, the government needs to drop its commitment to maintaining the dollar’s reserve-currency status.

The reasons are best articulated by Kenneth Austin, a Treasury Department economist, in the latest issue of The Journal of Post Keynesian Economics (needless to say, it’s his opinion, not necessarily the department’s). On the assumption that you don’t have the journal on your coffee table, allow me to summarize.

It is widely recognized that various countries, including China, Singapore and South Korea, suppress the value of their currency relative to the dollar to boost their exports to the United States and reduce its exports to them. They buy lots of dollars, which increases the dollar’s value relative to their own currencies, thus making their exports to us cheaper and our exports to them more expensive.

In 2013, America’s trade deficit was about $475 billion. Its deficit with China alone was $318 billion.

Though Mr. Austin doesn’t say it explicitly, his work shows that, far from being a victim of managed trade, the United States is a willing participant through its efforts to keep the dollar as the world’s most prominent reserve currency.

When a country wants to boost its exports by making them cheaper using the aforementioned process, its central bank accumulates currency from countries that issue reserves. To support this process, these countries suppress their consumption and boost their national savings. Since global accounts must balance, when “currency accumulators” save more and consume less than they produce, other countries — “currency issuers,” like the United States — must save less and consume more than they produce (i.e., run trade deficits).

This means that Americans alone do not determine their rates of savings and consumption. Think of an open, global economy as having one huge, aggregated amount of income that must all be consumed, saved or invested. That means individual countries must adjust to one another. If trade-surplus countries suppress their own consumption and use their excess savings to accumulate dollars, trade-deficit countries must absorb those excess savings to finance their excess consumption or investment.

Note that as long as the dollar is the reserve currency, America’s trade deficit can worsen even when we’re not directly in on the trade. Suppose South Korea runs a surplus with Brazil. By storing its surplus export revenues in Treasury bonds, South Korea nudges up the relative value of the dollar against our competitors’ currencies, and our trade deficit increases, even though the original transaction had nothing to do with the United States.

This isn’t just a matter of one academic writing one article. Mr. Austin’s analysis builds off work by the economist Michael Pettis and, notably, by the former Federal Reserve chairman Ben S. Bernanke.

A result of this dance, as seen throughout the tepid recovery from the Great Recession, is insufficient domestic demand in America’s own labor market. Mr. Austin argues convincingly that the correct metric for estimating the cost in jobs is the dollar value of reserve sales to foreign buyers. By his estimation, that amounted to six million jobs in 2008, and these would tend to be the sort of high-wage manufacturing jobs that are most vulnerable to changes in exports.

Dethroning “king dollar” would be easier than people think. America could, for example, enforce rules to prevent other countries from accumulating too much of our currency. In fact, others do just that precisely to avoid exporting jobs. The most recent example is Japan’s intervention to hold down the value of the yen when central banks in Asia and Latin America started buying Japanese debt.

Of course, if fewer people demanded dollars, interest rates - i.e., what America would pay people to hold its debt - might rise, especially if stronger domestic manufacturers demanded more investment. But there’s no clear empirical, negative relationship between interest rates and trade deficits, and in the long run, as Mr. Pettis observes, “Countries with balanced trade or trade surpluses tend to enjoy lower interest rates on average than countries with large current account deficits, which are handicapped by slower growth and higher debt.”

Others worry that higher import prices would increase inflation. But consider the results when we “pay” to keep price growth so low through artificially cheap exports and large trade deficits: weakened manufacturing, wage stagnation (even with low inflation) and deficits and bubbles to offset the imbalanced trade.

But while more balanced trade might raise prices, there’s no reason it should persistently increase the inflation rate. We might settle into a norm of 2 to 3 percent inflation, versus the current 1 to 2 percent. But that’s a price worth paying for more and higher-quality jobs, more stable recoveries and a revitalized manufacturing sector. The privilege of having the world’s reserve currency is one America can no longer afford.
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  #888  
Old 09-09-2014, 7:32 PM
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Zero hedge & o staffer. Yep. Serious cred with no agenda.......
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  #889  
Old 09-09-2014, 8:13 PM
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GB once held the world reserve currency status and they survived the change. G $ S were not a factor. The hype over this change in the future will probably give G $ S a nice bounce for sure someone will sell a sky falling.

BTW I got out of Silver ETFs in Nov and bough apple.com at prices between $415-425 before the spli....now about $700...and I think those silver ETFs are off 12-15%?
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  #890  
Old 09-09-2014, 9:04 PM
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Originally Posted by therealnickb View Post
Zero hedge & o staffer. Yep. Serious cred with no agenda.......
He was not a mere staffer, he was the Former Chief Economist to Biden.

Ignore what the hard core left does at your own risk...
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  #891  
Old 09-10-2014, 7:06 AM
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He was not a mere staffer, he was the Former Chief Economist to Biden.

Ignore what the hard core left does at your own risk...
Well, if Biden hired him......

Sorry, I don't see any alarms bells in the "opinion" piece written by one hack quoting the "opinion" of another similar hack. Zerohedge has an agenda. Their koolaid is as strong as any.
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  #892  
Old 09-10-2014, 8:59 AM
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$1255 an ounce, time to buy.
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  #893  
Old 09-10-2014, 11:11 AM
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$1255 an ounce, time to buy.
I disagree...I think once interest rates begin to rise PM's will lose value.

The Federal Reserve suggests they will begin raising interest rates in 2015. This does not bode well for PM's. I see Gold trading in the $800 range at a 2.5% Fed Funds Rate and as low as $450-$500 if/when Fed rate reaches the 5% level.

Unless there is a terrible decline in the value of the dollar. I don't see PM's as an investment that will outperform the market.

That said I also think that the market goes lower as investors take profits and reinvest in higher fixed interest assets.

That's not to say that you can't make money on the way down
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  #894  
Old 09-10-2014, 11:13 AM
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Originally Posted by Ripon83 View Post
GB once held the world reserve currency status and they survived the change. G $ S were not a factor. The hype over this change in the future will probably give G $ S a nice bounce for sure someone will sell a sky falling.

BTW I got out of Silver ETFs in Nov and bough apple.com at prices between $415-425 before the spli....now about $700...and I think those silver ETFs are off 12-15%?
You made a good move at a good time. Equities still have a little room to advance before the profit takers sell to lock in gains...and it's a temporary drop that will lead to a great buy in opportunity for those who missed the gains over the last 3 years.
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  #895  
Old 09-10-2014, 5:24 PM
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$1,248 ? You can do better than that. Bought a used Caddy last month so I will have to prolong a purchase or two.

I will look good cruising in retirement trying to dig up da Gold lost in boating accidents.

Sleep well my fellow stackers.
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  #896  
Old 09-10-2014, 6:05 PM
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Thoughts? Gold currently at $1248 oz, debt at $17.7 trill but you get the idea.

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Last edited by Twinkies; 09-10-2014 at 6:09 PM.. Reason: ..more
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  #897  
Old 09-10-2014, 6:16 PM
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Thoughts? Gold currently at $1248 oz, debt at $17.7 trill but you get the idea.

Interesting chart... I don't recall seeing it previously. Can you post or link to pre-'97?
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  #898  
Old 09-10-2014, 7:02 PM
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Like everything coming from zerohedge, complete junk. I can make almost any two charts fit if I can control scales and time frame. It is just stupid bunk for the uneducated masses.

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Thoughts? Gold currently at $1248 oz, debt at $17.7 trill but you get the idea.

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  #899  
Old 09-10-2014, 7:27 PM
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Like everything coming from zerohedge, complete junk. I can make almost any two charts fit if I can control scales and time frame. It is just stupid bunk for the uneducated masses.
Fair enough.. but what about the actual data? No matter how you graph it, the trends look the same. Or are you also denying a historic correlation between debt and gold prices?

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Originally Posted by Not a Cook View Post
Interesting chart... I don't recall seeing it previously. Can you post or link to pre-'97?


I think we can all agree 1971 was a critical year. Hows this chart instead? You can project our current year in a downward trend obviously while debt has continued to soar.
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Old 09-10-2014, 7:33 PM
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Fair enough.. but what about the actual data? No matter how you graph it, the trends look the same. Or are you also denying a historic correlation between debt and gold prices?





I think we can all agree 1971 was a critical year. Hows this chart instead? You can project our current year in a downward trend obviously while debt has continued to soar.
Twinkies - thanks for posting. I may be looking at it wrong, but wouldn't the apparent trend from the post-'97 graph not be seen in the 1980-1997 time period?
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  #901  
Old 09-10-2014, 8:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Not a Cook View Post
Twinkies - thanks for posting. I may be looking at it wrong, but wouldn't the apparent trend from the post-'97 graph not be seen in the 1980-1997 time period?
'97-01 was flat on debt increase.. you'll also notice that Gold stayed fairly flat in the "clinton" years... 1980 saw high oil prices and conflicts with Russian/Afghanistan and Iran and the Hunt bros run on silver, a rise in gold prices. Yes, some divergence there.

These are just google image charts I've found to be accurate and posted in order to spark discussion about some articles I've read elsewhere including today at
http://dollarvigilante.com/blog/2014...will-die.html#

Smashycrashy posted a link earlier to a Kitco chart. So here's Kitco's take on it last year.
http://www.kitco.com/ind/Radomski/20...-Go-Again.html

Although it seems since then there has been a sharp disconnect in debt vs. gold and I'm wondering why. I know the world is currently leaning hard on the dollar, but many of us know the dollar can not, and will not, last forever and many countries (Iran, Saudi Arabia, China, Russia,etc) are looking to ween off the petrodollar... hence the current global conflicts with direct US involvement.
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  #902  
Old 09-10-2014, 8:16 PM
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I think you are seeing correlation where you want to.. doesn't look correlated to me (this was a chart showing how gold and silver were totally set to hit even higher highs... and it proceeded to drops like a stone)

It's not fundamental valuation.. it's guesswork. People talk about gold for the simple fact that it is exactly like having a conversation about how many angels can stand on the head of a pin. There is no way to know and everyone will come up with their own (pulled out of their ***) metric.



Gold value, imho, is how much it costs to get it out of the ground (this isn't the BS "all-in" cash costs that public miners try to push). There isn't a supply constraint anywhere (gold supply increases pretty much every year, which makes sense as technology advances it makes it easier to find and mine things).

Gold is just a silly metal that sits there. If that is your thing, have at it. But don't call it an investment.


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Originally Posted by Twinkies View Post
Fair enough.. but what about the actual data? No matter how you graph it, the trends look the same. Or are you also denying a historic correlation between debt and gold prices?





I think we can all agree 1971 was a critical year. Hows this chart instead? You can project our current year in a downward trend obviously while debt has continued to soar.
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  #903  
Old 09-10-2014, 8:18 PM
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LOL! Gold was flat from 1981 until 2006!

How did the Dow or S&P do during that time frame?

Just stop you metal pimps!!
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  #904  
Old 09-10-2014, 8:55 PM
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Originally Posted by smashycrashy View Post

Gold is just a silly metal that sits there. If that is your thing, have at it. But don't call it an investment.
There are plenty of silly metals, not just gold, that have infinite more uses than paper fibers, now more than ever. Unless folding origami and mini-paper airplanes is your thing. Fed paper fueling Wall St is a house of cards, a sketchy investment to a lot of people.

The chart you posted is a year old, yes, projecting higher gold and silver that did not materialize. THAT is what I wanted to talk about.. something seems off.. whether people are putting more money into crypto-currencies instead of gold, or global conflicts and belief in the dollar as a reserve is driving gold down, or what other factors that you might call guesswork?
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Old 09-11-2014, 7:42 AM
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There are plenty of silly metals, not just gold, that have infinite more uses than paper fibers, now more than ever. Unless folding origami and mini-paper airplanes is your thing. Fed paper fueling Wall St is a house of cards, a sketchy investment to a lot of people.
Funny, I can use "paper fibers" to pay my mortgage.. buy food.. etc.

If I have gold I have to convert it into paper fibers or find someone willing to trade whatever good or service they have/do for it. The paper fibers are infinitely more useful.

Buying gold is SPECULATING that you will be able to trade it for more paper fibers in the future OR that paper fibers won't even exist. Where a mix of stocks and bonds has shown over the long haul that they will collect more and more paper fibers than a silly metal that just sits there and does nothing. One is speculating, the other is investing. I'm an investor I know where I'd put my money... Stocks and bonds work at collecting more and more dollars every day, gold doesn't work it just sits there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Twinkies View Post
The chart you posted is a year old, yes, projecting higher gold and silver that did not materialize. THAT is what I wanted to talk about.. something seems off.. whether people are putting more money into crypto-currencies instead of gold, or global conflicts and belief in the dollar as a reserve is driving gold down, or what other factors that you might call guesswork?
1) The thing that is "off" is that gold relative to national debt is a BS metric. Pretty simple.

2) First time I've ever heard someone mention global conflicts (or the belief that dollar losing reserve status) as something that would drive the price down...
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  #906  
Old 09-11-2014, 11:03 AM
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Originally Posted by smashycrashy View Post
Funny, I can use "paper fibers" to pay my mortgage.. buy food.. etc.

If I have gold I have to convert it into paper fibers or find someone willing to trade whatever good or service they have/do for it. The paper fibers are infinitely more useful.

Buying gold is SPECULATING that you will be able to trade it for more paper fibers in the future OR that paper fibers won't even exist. Where a mix of stocks and bonds has shown over the long haul that they will collect more and more paper fibers than a silly metal that just sits there and does nothing. One is speculating, the other is investing. I'm an investor I know where I'd put my money... Stocks and bonds work at collecting more and more dollars every day, gold doesn't work it just sits there.
About one thing you are correct, gold is not an investment. Physical gold is an insurance policy. Gold will continue to have value when your fiat paper money will be worth less than toilet paper.

For people who are interested in gold: Don't buy gold as an investment, buy gold as a potential insurance policy. In the SHTF scenario gold may not have immediate value as food, water, shelter and security will be everything. But later as trade emerges gold/silver will have value for trading purposes. Try that with paper money.

The value of gold is currently manipulated by the Government. They tend to keep the value low in order to ensure that people buy monetary instruments.

Gold may or may not be useful in our lifetimes, but paper money is on a collision course with reality.

The question is, if gold has so little value why does nearly every Government keep it in reserve. And why is Germany asking for their reserves (which we have been holding) back from us?
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  #907  
Old 09-11-2014, 4:24 PM
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Exactly correct.

My personal "SHTF" occured in 09. Like many I was unemployed, out of debt thank goodness, but had no income. I couldn't tap my retirement since I wasn't of age and didn't want to pay the penalty. The next couple of years kind of sucked.

We had a nice boost winter / spring 2011. I do recall that my cash flow situation sucked wind and though my asset base was strong I needed some equipment to convert raw land into lease - able / rent - able farm land. Thank goodness for that "bump" in silver before the spring thaw; I was able to sell a bunch, buy the equipment and create livable income off the farm land.

I thus can't knock Silver / Gold as an investment. I sold nearly 400 oz of silver between Feb/March that year and maybe 10 oz of gold. It wasn't all I had but it was close. It didn't include my pre 64 coins that are for SHTF. It was enough for an old tractor, front end loader, rear scraper, disk and trailer to get them to my property. Thanks to that I don't have to work today, and I can thank my Dad for making me buy that stuff in the 80's.

There is no way for me to slam "investing" in gold and silver. I live the proof that they can be a real tangible asset at the worst time and can make all of the difference in the world.




Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottsBad View Post
About one thing you are correct, gold is not an investment. Physical gold is an insurance policy. Gold will continue to have value when your fiat paper money will be worth less than toilet paper.

For people who are interested in gold: Don't buy gold as an investment, buy gold as a potential insurance policy. In the SHTF scenario gold may not have immediate value as food, water, shelter and security will be everything. But later as trade emerges gold/silver will have value for trading purposes. Try that with paper money.

The value of gold is currently manipulated by the Government. They tend to keep the value low in order to ensure that people buy monetary instruments.

Gold may or may not be useful in our lifetimes, but paper money is on a collision course with reality.

The question is, if gold has so little value why does nearly every Government keep it in reserve. And why is Germany asking for their reserves (which we have been holding) back from us?
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  #908  
Old 09-11-2014, 4:37 PM
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Exactly correct.

My personal "SHTF" occured in 09. Like many I was unemployed, out of debt thank goodness, but had no income. I couldn't tap my retirement since I wasn't of age and didn't want to pay the penalty. The next couple of years kind of sucked.

We had a nice boost winter / spring 2011. I do recall that my cash flow situation sucked wind and though my asset base was strong I needed some equipment to convert raw land into lease - able / rent - able farm land. Thank goodness for that "bump" in silver before the spring thaw; I was able to sell a bunch, buy the equipment and create livable income off the farm land.

I thus can't knock Silver / Gold as an investment. I sold nearly 400 oz of silver between Feb/March that year and maybe 10 oz of gold. It wasn't all I had but it was close. It didn't include my pre 64 coins that are for SHTF. It was enough for an old tractor, front end loader, rear scraper, disk and trailer to get them to my property. Thanks to that I don't have to work today, and I can thank my Dad for making me buy that stuff in the 80's.

There is no way for me to slam "investing" in gold and silver. I live the proof that they can be a real tangible asset at the worst time and can make all of the difference in the world.
But you are not the person metal pimps are pitching to. These maggots are selling doom and gloom for the entire USA.

Glad your pops taught you well.

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Old 09-11-2014, 7:21 PM
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But you are not the person metal pimps are pitching to. These maggots are selling doom and gloom for the entire USA.

Glad your pops taught you well.

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lol.. doom and gloom doesn't have to be sold to anyone. It's already here, collapse of the fiat dollar is inevitable.

This thread is in the "survival and prep" forum and part of surviving what's ahead is getting your money out of the dollar and into bullion, bullets, bitcoin and whatever people might find valuable. That doesn't mean that these items are sure thing investments guaranteeing 30% returns in three years. They are definitely insurance policies.

And as ScottsBad said, PM prices are already manipulated.
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Old 09-11-2014, 8:28 PM
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Default I agree

You are correct in that I don't have a big belief in buying futures contracts or even ETFs even though my IRA has held ETFs for PMs in the past. I don't like going on forums and pumping investments.

I do recommend people have PMs for SHTF. I also am not afraid to say people ought to buy a few ounces of silver here and their, gold when they can etc. when I got my first pay checks in the 80's I bought 5 oz every pay day. I just wish I hadn't got mad at the retailer for refusing to give me a break when I splurged for 20.

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But you are not the person metal pimps are pitching to. These maggots are selling doom and gloom for the entire USA.

Glad your pops taught you well.

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Old 09-12-2014, 6:25 AM
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I wrote in this thread long ago, there is nothing wrong with owning some PM's. But those promoting them as the ultimate solution are just retailers. And those gobbling up the pitch are quite myopic. IMO.

And twink, you don't like fiat but bitcoin is cool.... Seriously?
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Old 09-12-2014, 7:43 AM
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About one thing you are correct, gold is not an investment. Physical gold is an insurance policy. Gold will continue to have value when your fiat paper money will be worth less than toilet paper.

For people who are interested in gold: Don't buy gold as an investment, buy gold as a potential insurance policy. In the SHTF scenario gold may not have immediate value as food, water, shelter and security will be everything. But later as trade emerges gold/silver will have value for trading purposes. Try that with paper money.

The value of gold is currently manipulated by the Government. They tend to keep the value low in order to ensure that people buy monetary instruments.

Gold may or may not be useful in our lifetimes, but paper money is on a collision course with reality.

The question is, if gold has so little value why does nearly every Government keep it in reserve. And why is Germany asking for their reserves (which we have been holding) back from us?
You won't get an argument from me about gold not being an investment.

As an insurance policy I'd say it is a poor one, if the SHTF for it to pay off you'd be much better off having useful objects rather than one that just sits there.

The most likely event is that you grow old and die and the world doesn't end. If you have that avenue covered (i.e. plenty of retirement savings in broad, low cost index funds) and want to plan for the world ending.. great. But if you don't have the most likely event covered and are putting money into the least likely event.. i'd say you aren't being very smart about your money.

As to why central banks keep gold in reserve.. they can buy gold to get more of their currency in circulation and sell gold to firm up their currency without directly targeting any one currency. It is a currency neutral way of implementing monetary policy.

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Exactly correct.

My personal "SHTF" occured in 09. Like many I was unemployed, out of debt thank goodness, but had no income. I couldn't tap my retirement since I wasn't of age and didn't want to pay the penalty. The next couple of years kind of sucked.

We had a nice boost winter / spring 2011. I do recall that my cash flow situation sucked wind and though my asset base was strong I needed some equipment to convert raw land into lease - able / rent - able farm land. Thank goodness for that "bump" in silver before the spring thaw; I was able to sell a bunch, buy the equipment and create livable income off the farm land.

I thus can't knock Silver / Gold as an investment. I sold nearly 400 oz of silver between Feb/March that year and maybe 10 oz of gold. It wasn't all I had but it was close. It didn't include my pre 64 coins that are for SHTF. It was enough for an old tractor, front end loader, rear scraper, disk and trailer to get them to my property. Thanks to that I don't have to work today, and I can thank my Dad for making me buy that stuff in the 80's.

There is no way for me to slam "investing" in gold and silver. I live the proof that they can be a real tangible asset at the worst time and can make all of the difference in the world.
Your story speaks to the need for savings, the "investment" vehicle happened to work out for you, but you could very well have the same story and gold/silver be down 30%. Putting the same money across a diverse set of asset classes would have been a much safer long term move.

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Old 09-12-2014, 8:12 AM
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I wrote in this thread long ago, there is nothing wrong with owning some PM's. But those promoting them as the ultimate solution are just retailers. And those gobbling up the pitch are quite myopic. IMO.

And twink, you don't like fiat but bitcoin is cool.... Seriously?
And people who buy all the crap their investment advisors are promoting are equally ignorant. Talk about retailers, the stock brokers, funds, and investment bankers are retailers who pinch 1-5% of your money every year.

Investment advisors and others in the business are not prepared to deal with anything but normal business cycles. They can not and will not help you plan for a SHTF type scenario. You have to plan for those possibilities yourself.

If you talk to investment advisors they will tell you that physical gold is ridiculous. They do this for two reasons. One, they know the history of gold is fraught with ups and downs. As a long term investment this can be problematic, they are right about that. Two, they cannot make any money directing part of your investment into physical gold or silver as insurance.

So, PMs are a good insurance policy and may turn out to be a good investment, but don't count on PMs as an investment. One thing about PMs is that their value will never go to zero, find a stock that can guarantee you that.

Bitcoin is interesting as a concept, the Gov. would love to shut down that type of currency permanently and that makes it a bigger risk than it is already. IF you have money burning a hole in your pocket, money that you would otherwise take to Vegas, then Bitcoin type trading might be for you.

The Gov. hates anything they cannot control, monitor, and ultimately tax or seize easily.

If you ever get an investment advisor who thinks that PMs are worthless, find someone else who has a better perspective. Investment advisors don't like to talk about dollar crashes, ruinous inflation or deflation, Gov. seizure, martial law, or any of the other possible scenarios that might take the monetary system down because, "It is just too big to deal with." That's a quote from an advisor from a major investment house.
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Old 09-12-2014, 9:35 AM
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You won't get an argument from me about gold not being an investment.

As an insurance policy I'd say it is a poor one, if the SHTF for it to pay off you'd be much better off having useful objects rather than one that just sits there.

That is just too obvious to address, and would be easily inferred by anyone who is familiar with prepping. Are you in the wrong forum? I mentioned the first importance being food, water, shelter, security. Did you read my posts?

The most likely event is that you grow old and die and the world doesn't end. If you have that avenue covered (i.e. plenty of retirement savings in broad, low cost index funds) and want to plan for the world ending.. great. But if you don't have the most likely event covered and are putting money into the least likely event.. i'd say you aren't being very smart about your money.

Again, I don't really want to get personal, but reading comprehension is an important skill. The concept is gold as an insurance policy not an investment, which implies that it is NOT an investment and therefore should not be considered a way to accrue money for retirement. Get it?

Further, this implies that one would have a plan for retirement separate from your SHTF (or whatever) preparations which includes gold in case the currency loses value or becomes worthless.

Obviously, you don't include preps as part of your retirement. Anyway, I HOPE I die without ever using my preps, and I'm sure my kids will find a use for them.


As to why central banks keep gold in reserve.. they can buy gold to get more of their currency in circulation and sell gold to firm up their currency without directly targeting any one currency. It is a currency neutral way of implementing monetary policy.

Guess what? We are no longer on the Gold Standard. The mechanism you talk about is such a small part of the picture that it is irrelevant. Money values are controlled by the amount of money in circulation and the buying and selling of other currencies with dollars, not gold. The Fed issues bonds to buyers (fewer and fewer) or the Fed issues and buys it's own bonds and holds them (fiat currency). Gold is a small part of the equation.

Besides you didn't answer the question. So I'll answer it for you. The reason that gold is important to central banks is obvious, because it has intrinsic value and there is a finite supply, therefore if they need to print NEW currency they can back it with gold. I believe that is what Germany is planning for in case the doomed Euro needs replacement with new German currency for their country.

In a SHTF scenario I'd rather have TP than your paper dollars. I've fired 3 or 4 guys like you over the years and I've finally found a guy who is smart enough to see the big picture. I don't count my retirement as part of my preps, because they don't count. And I don't count my preps as part of my retirement, although selling them is an option.

I ride the market up and down and right now we are overdue for a correction.

If I just wanted a guy to tell me, "Get a diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds..." Yada yada, why would I need you. I'd cut you out and save 1.5% or whatever. There's no there there. I can get the same advice from Yahoo finance.

The truth is that the most likely scenario is an in-between meltdown, not a SHTF scenario, but a slow motion degradation. And I think we are probably past the point of no return for eventually destroying America as we know it now.
See above in red. Used car salesmen just don't impress me.
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Old 09-12-2014, 10:31 AM
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TL;DR

We are in agreement it's not an investment.

We disagree on how good of an insurance policy it is.

That insurance policy would read "this policy will pay out if the world ends, but not right away like only if society makes a comeback"

I'd sell that policy all day long.. And sure would never buy it.
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Old 09-12-2014, 12:22 PM
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Scotts, forgive me but you're all over the place. Since this is a preppers forum, my comments about and bone of contention with doomsday preachers like zerohedge are on point. None of the other evil doers you cite are calling for the end of the world as we know it.

That's all I have for you. Do what you need to sleep at night.
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Old 09-12-2014, 5:14 PM
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And twink, you don't like fiat but bitcoin is cool.... Seriously?
Bitcoin is not debt-based. It cannot be counterfeited (printed) by the Fed. It cannot be used in a global "Petro-Bitcoin" scheme by government to facilitate endless war and death. It is easier and cheaper to transfer than dollar digital currency. It can be anonymous (without being in person and handing over a wad of cash with gloves on).

On the downside, it is completely dependent on the electrical grid being up and running (for the foreseeable future). Once all 21 million bitcoins are "mined", the incentive to "process" transactions will likely incur a fee. Mt Gox incidents can take place, but wallets and security will only improve.

Whether bitcoin, bullets, or bullion will be king really depends on how severe the collapse of the dollar plays out.


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Originally Posted by ScottsBad View Post

Bitcoin is interesting as a concept, the Gov. would love to shut down that type of currency permanently and that makes it a bigger risk than it is already. IF you have money burning a hole in your pocket, money that you would otherwise take to Vegas, then Bitcoin type trading might be for you.
Indeed, gov will continue to see this as an increasing threat to its control. We are at a point in time where gov can't spin its wheels of bureaucracy fast enough to keep up with technology. Smartphone use, 3d printing, crypto-currency, etc etc. It will be much more difficult for our gov to pull a "Cyprus" if everyone has their money in bitcoin.
While I agree with everything else you have posted on this page, I have to point out the Bitcoin is gaining momentum in acceptance. You can buy a Tesla in bitcoin, Overstock.com, real estate is now being purchased in the $millions with bitcoin. Parallax Tactical here in SD takes Bitcoin. Paypal is in the works with Coinbase to bring Bitcoin to Ebay. That will be HUGE. However I do think it will be somewhat volatile until enough people switch over to it, or enough businesses allow their payroll to direct deposit into bitcoin wallets.

Of course, something better than bitcoin may materialize, who knows.
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Old 09-12-2014, 5:20 PM
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on a side note, American Silver Eagles are now $21. Time to buy a few more.
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Old 09-12-2014, 6:48 PM
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Etf's bad. Bitcoin good. Okey dokey.
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Old 09-12-2014, 7:56 PM
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Apples and oranges? no, that's more like daffodils and sledgehammers. Its like trying to convince a teenager they should put down the Sprite and Mountain Dew and maybe eat some vegetables before them, their friends, and whole US contracts type 2 diabetes. But teenagers really like sugar, and they know better than you anyway. alllllrighty then.
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