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Survival and Preparations Long and short term survival and 'prepping'.

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  #441  
Old 02-14-2014, 7:05 AM
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Default Are Gold and Silver gonna keep going down?

It might hit 1500 before 800. But it will break below 1000 again in the next few years.

So yep, get ready for the long painful ride. Or I should say, get used to the long painful ride that's been going on for 2 years and will continue.
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Last edited by therealnickb; 02-14-2014 at 7:07 AM..
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  #442  
Old 02-14-2014, 7:11 AM
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Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
Ah-oh, did Gold and Silver just break through their 200 day moving averages?

Where's El Smashy now?

Get ready for the ride folks, this will be one for the ages.

Gold up 9% for the year already.
Really? Gosh if only I could find a recent example where Gold went above the the 200 day moving average and then proceeded to move significantly lower.

Oh, August 2012? and it proceeded to drop $400 below it's peak it hit then?

Commodities are volatile, they are not a safe/stable investment. Gold is merely displaying this. Enjoy your single, overvalued, asset class.. and the rewards... and risk thereof.
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  #443  
Old 02-14-2014, 7:26 AM
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90 days. It's the new 200. Try to keep up.

Besides what better than a 1% move in metal to ring in a new wave of exponential increases?
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  #444  
Old 02-14-2014, 7:34 AM
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relatively new to PMs here... Could anyone advise me on the pros & cons of using a monthly silver purchase plan?

I'm sure I want to take physical possession of my PMs, and am thinking that by doing these monthly purchase programs, I can save a ton of money on shipping, by waiting til I've met the minimum orders, and not having to pay c/c transaction fees.

Any opinions, or feedback from people who have or have had reason not to participate in such programs?

My situation: I could afford to put approx $150 a month in to PMs, but to spend that per month, on a new order each month would eat away at my total PM purchase, due to shipping, and c/c fees. If I could pay the $150 per month, and then when I have enough for a 1 KG bar of silver, or an ounce of gold, take physical possession at that time.

Please, PM me, since this might be considered slightly "off-topic"
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  #445  
Old 02-14-2014, 9:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Not a Cook View Post
Let me apologize in advance for threadjacking: not really trying to, and hopefully I won't annoy you too badly. I'm totally new to buying precious metals, and judging by this thread am hoping that some of the folks here would be willing to help me out. Where would you advise someone like myself start in buying silver for an emergency on-hand stockpile? Why types of coins? Any specific dealers (the San Fernando Valley, Ventura County, and adjacent areas are convenient for me) that you would recommend? Also, if I understand correctly, minimum purchase should be $1,500 so as not to have to pay sales tax, correct? Anything else I should keep in mind? I've read through this thread and some other websites, but assume there is more that I should be considering. Thanks in advance for your help!
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaliforniaLiberal View Post
As has been posted here, you want to have the basics: water, food, warmth, mobility and self defense as well as a 6 month savings in your bank account before you consider Precious Metals.

You are far more likely to have a job loss or some personal family crisis than to experience the End of the World As We Know It. Have some savings to protect yourself from the unexpected.

Metal prices are fundamentally unpredictable. They are a speculation, not an investment. Forecasts of future prices by experts have been worse than random chance over the years. There is a huge industry focussed on providing BS information in an effort to get people to buy or sell, where profit for the info providers is made from your transactions, not any wise investment decisions.

In the first weeks or months of chaos after a SHTF Silver Coins are not likely to be as easily traded as Firearms and especially Ammunition and other necessities. You can't eat Metals. After a certain level of Law and Order and a reliable Food Supply has been reestablished there may be a place for easily recognized Silver and Gold coins in a primitive economy.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_as_an_investment


Precious Metal prices are driven by irrational panic and greed much more than by quantifiable economic statistics. There are far more filthy rich traders who have gotten richer by manipulating the market than there are "little guys" buying or selling less than million dollar quantities of metals.

You are the sheep. They are the sheep shearers.

Those who think they know what the markets are doing and make sincere predictions are self-deluded. The recent drop in prices was completely unforeseen, un-predicted. Long term, you have better odds at the Roulette Wheel or 21 Table. The Casinos don't charge you an extra fee to place a bet.

Never put any money into metals that you can't afford to see shrink by half over the next year.

Good Luck.
Quote:
Originally Posted by felixthecat1 View Post
relatively new to PMs here... Could anyone advise me on the pros & cons of using a monthly silver purchase plan?

I'm sure I want to take physical possession of my PMs, and am thinking that by doing these monthly purchase programs, I can save a ton of money on shipping, by waiting til I've met the minimum orders, and not having to pay c/c transaction fees.

Any opinions, or feedback from people who have or have had reason not to participate in such programs?

My situation: I could afford to put approx $150 a month in to PMs, but to spend that per month, on a new order each month would eat away at my total PM purchase, due to shipping, and c/c fees. If I could pay the $150 per month, and then when I have enough for a 1 KG bar of silver, or an ounce of gold, take physical possession at that time.

Please, PM me, since this might be considered slightly "off-topic"

Wasn't that long ago (Fall 2012) that Silver was hovering below $35 and these same fools and idiots were predicting imminent price rise to $50 and then soaring to $120 so you better buy Silver now. Here's some charts so you can review how that worked out.

http://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html


All Precious Metal Prophets are charlatans. They make up meaningless jargon like "breaking the 200 day moving average" to blow smoke in your face, trying to make their Prophecies sound reasoned and plausible.

Felix the Cat, if you must speculate in Silver, put your monthly cash into a canning jar until you have a thousand or two, then make your buy. Shop around locally to see if there are any brick and mortar dealers that gain your trust. There are a few online dealers that usually don't charge too much. Don't make it complicated, use a canning jar.

Never mistake precious metals for an investment. You can get better odds in Reno and scantily clad pretty girls will bring you booze. The market is randomly volatile except when it's being manipulated by billionaires.
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  #446  
Old 02-14-2014, 9:23 AM
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I worked with a guy in the early 90s that would tell us everyday that we were stupid for not investing in gold. That was 20 years ago and the world was going to collapse at any second. He put all of his money in gold. He lost his ***.
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  #447  
Old 02-14-2014, 9:29 AM
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In the early 80s my dads friend would come over and talk about all of his prepping. He bought one of the new nissan or datsun trucks. He said he bought it because things were about to collapse and there would be no more spare parts. He wanted the japanese truck because it wouldnt need parts. He spent a ton of money on stuff that he never used.
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  #448  
Old 02-14-2014, 9:32 AM
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Originally Posted by cantcme View Post
I worked with a guy in the early 90s that would tell us everyday that we were stupid for not investing in gold. That was 20 years ago and the world was going to collapse at any second. He put all of his money in gold. He lost his ***.
Price for Gold has increased 400% over the last two decades. If he sold near the recent high, he could have had 500% which isn't bad for a storage of wealth.
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  #449  
Old 02-14-2014, 3:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
Price for Gold has increased 400% over the last two decades. If he sold near the recent high, he could have had 500% which isn't bad for a storage of wealth.
What was Amazon the other day - 4000 percent in one decade? I'm not sure it was amazon or which one it was. I know that I'm 48 and wish I could tap my IRA now without the penalties; oh well.
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  #450  
Old 02-14-2014, 3:26 PM
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Silver up 5% today. Nice.
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  #451  
Old 02-14-2014, 3:36 PM
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Originally Posted by Quinc View Post
And once all of this happens who is going to buy your gold?
Doesn't matter. If you hold tangible goods, that's all that matters. No one is going to want your money if things get really bad.

You could just get a small gold coing and maybe hack off a few pieces and use it to 'buy' whatever it is you need. The difficult part will be finding how much gold equates to what kind of product and how much of it you will get for said amount of hacked-off gold pieces.
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  #452  
Old 02-15-2014, 8:24 AM
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Gold and silver are insurance for the darkest times, not a day to day investment. Buy some, keep them, and move on. You can never have enough PMs to retire on but you could have enough to see yourself through a collapse when folks still find silver attractive, right before the point when people realize you can't eat silver.
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  #453  
Old 02-15-2014, 9:57 AM
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Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
Price for Gold has increased 400% over the last two decades. If he sold near the recent high, he could have had 500% which isn't bad for a storage of wealth.

Ha!

25k in 22LR ammo at .015c ea before Obama and sold during middle of panic for .40c ea would have netted you over 650k in profit in 5 months.
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  #454  
Old 02-15-2014, 10:03 AM
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Originally Posted by problemchild View Post
Ha!

25k in 22LR ammo at .015c ea before Obama and sold during middle of panic for .40c ea would have netted you over 650k in profit in 5 months.
Yeah!!!... I have done better selling ammo I bought 5 years ago than my PM's.
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  #455  
Old 02-15-2014, 10:03 AM
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The vast majority I know that built substantial wealth did it in real estate. Not all but most. I don't personally know anyone that became wealthy in pm. I'm talking about becoming wealthy not a wealthy person that increased wealth.
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  #456  
Old 02-16-2014, 8:27 AM
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Ammo is a pm that you can use if the value drops.
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  #457  
Old 02-16-2014, 10:13 AM
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For every stock that was a high flyer there are 20 that crashed and burned or never made it out of the gates. Sure everyone is elated the market gained 30% last year but that isn't the norm. Markets are manipulated, all of them.

Taking historical charts we can see Gold to the S&P and real estate. They show different facts than posted here. Also every time a company lags inside the S&P it is kicked to the curb and a strong replacement stock is inserted. Skews the numbers and facts. Gold needs no such help, it stands the test of time.

Ammo...heh heh Cabbage patch dolls were hot once too.

http://www.mining.com/this-50-year-c...-stocks-39584/

If you purchased the equivalent in gold as the price of a house in 1980-1982, today you could buy 3 of the same average homes with the gold.

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/USHLSPOG.php
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  #458  
Old 02-16-2014, 10:47 AM
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You can't use a cabbage patch doll. Ammo is needed in every corner of the world. I know gold is needed for many applications but i have never needed it. I have needed ammo and real estate.
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  #459  
Old 02-16-2014, 10:48 AM
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Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
For every stock that was a high flyer there are 20 that crashed and burned or never made it out of the gates. Sure everyone is elated the market gained 30% last year but that isn't the norm. Markets are manipulated, all of them.

Taking historical charts we can see Gold to the S&P and real estate. They show different facts than posted here. Also every time a company lags inside the S&P it is kicked to the curb and a strong replacement stock is inserted. Skews the numbers and facts. Gold needs no such help, it stands the test of time.

Ammo...heh heh Cabbage patch dolls were hot once too.

http://www.mining.com/this-50-year-c...-stocks-39584/

If you purchased the equivalent in gold as the price of a house in 1980-1982, today you could buy 3 of the same average homes with the gold.

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/USHLSPOG.php
Funny you mention stocks and RE and gold, you'll compare golds return to RE. But not to stocks over the same period...

If you took the equivalent of a house price and invested it into stocks instead of gold.. what is the return over the same period? What is the return with dividends reinvested? (from January of 1980 or 1982 to January of 2014)

For 1980 w/o dividends:
1548.972%

For 1980 w/ dividends:
4028.760%

For 1982 w/o dividends:
1459.003%

For 1982 w/ dividends:
3428.950%

Yeah stocks win again. The longer the time horizon the more the noise is taken out and the more you can see which asset classes collect the most dollars.

It makes perfect sense that a huge collection of industries whose sole focus is to make more money... actually does so...

Where gold, just sits there and does nothing. But for you you think sitting and doing nothing will defeat ingenuity, hard work and innovation..

http://dqydj.net/sp-500-return-calculator/

For gold:
http://dqydj.net/inflation-adjusted-...rn-calculator/

Ain't even close!

You want to be / stay poor.. invest in gold. If you want to be rich, find productive assets and invest in them.
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  #460  
Old 02-16-2014, 10:59 AM
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there are a lot of stocks to choose from... not all have done well... theres only a few pm to choose from... all have done well.. in respect to time/inflation
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  #461  
Old 02-16-2014, 12:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smashycrashy View Post
Funny you mention stocks and RE and gold, you'll compare golds return to RE. But not to stocks over the same period...

If you took the equivalent of a house price and invested it into stocks instead of gold.. what is the return over the same period? What is the return with dividends reinvested? (from January of 1980 or 1982 to January of 2014)

For 1980 w/o dividends:
1548.972%

For 1980 w/ dividends:
4028.760%

For 1982 w/o dividends:
1459.003%

For 1982 w/ dividends:
3428.950%

Yeah stocks win again. The longer the time horizon the more the noise is taken out and the more you can see which asset classes collect the most dollars.

It makes perfect sense that a huge collection of industries whose sole focus is to make more money... actually does so...

Where gold, just sits there and does nothing. But for you you think sitting and doing nothing will defeat ingenuity, hard work and innovation..

http://dqydj.net/sp-500-return-calculator/

For gold:
http://dqydj.net/inflation-adjusted-...rn-calculator/

Ain't even close!

You want to be / stay poor.. invest in gold. If you want to be rich, find productive assets and invest in them.
Your formula for s&p is a bogus thing. S&P changes companies all the time and no one buys all the stocks in the average to receive the dividends, they diversify which carries a lot more risk when you only pick a few stocks for your portfolio. Most financial fund managers never outperform the average. And if you were unlucky enough to have picked an S&P stock that went BK and tossed out, your return is squat, most likely a loss. If you play an ETF S&P it pays no dividend and degrades over time. Most newbs don't have the capitol requirements to enter the better funds or they are closed.

I'm not arguing that stocks can out perform Golds returns, PM's are money and have shown over long periods they store wealth.

As far as real estate, there is a lot more to owning a home or investment property than just the price. Costs costs costs, vacancy, repairs, taxes, depreciation must be re-capitalize when sold more taxes.

I own raw land, taxes under $100 a yr. and a 10 bagger so far. Long term hold and another storage of wealth.

If your banking on RE and SHTF comes, say your house is burnt down with 1000's if not 10,000's of others. Think the insurance company goes BK? Bet they do and now you owe the bank for raw land and the clean up. We already know what a minor stock crash feels like, image a big one, coupled with bank runs and BK's. Gulp ! Stocks carry risk, house are a home not an investment. Investment RE carries risk. Risk reward.

I enjoy having some Gold and always will.
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  #462  
Old 02-16-2014, 1:43 PM
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Silver US coins...
Thats the ticket@
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  #463  
Old 02-16-2014, 6:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
For every stock that was a high flyer there are 20 that crashed and burned or never made it out of the gates. Sure everyone is elated the market gained 30% last year but that isn't the norm. Markets are manipulated, all of them.

Taking historical charts we can see Gold to the S&P and real estate. They show different facts than posted here. Also every time a company lags inside the S&P it is kicked to the curb and a strong replacement stock is inserted. Skews the numbers and facts. Gold needs no such help, it stands the test of time.

Ammo...heh heh Cabbage patch dolls were hot once too.

http://www.mining.com/this-50-year-c...-stocks-39584/

If you purchased the equivalent in gold as the price of a house in 1980-1982, today you could buy 3 of the same average homes with the gold.

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/USHLSPOG.php

Still missing the point.

Business traded on public exchanges file piles of financial data and send it to investors and regulators. We can "invest" in well run businesses or gamble with the "hot trades" of the day.

Just like people that buy gold hand over fist when doom and gloom are all the rage, many buy the dot com or solar or whatever "new and great" stock of the day as it climbs for no sound reason.

Metals are not a bad thing to own, but if you are planning your future on them you are doing it wrong. (Unless of course you are a dealer and simply making a % on each sale.)
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  #464  
Old 02-16-2014, 6:52 PM
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Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
Your formula for s&p is a bogus thing. S&P changes companies all the time and no one buys all the stocks in the average to receive the dividends, they diversify which carries a lot more risk when you only pick a few stocks for your portfolio. Most financial fund managers never outperform the average. And if you were unlucky enough to have picked an S&P stock that went BK and tossed out, your return is squat, most likely a loss. If you play an ETF S&P it pays no dividend and degrades over time. Most newbs don't have the capitol requirements to enter the better funds or they are closed.
Err, there is this thing called an index fund, you own the index.. if a company drops out that means another is added.. so the fund sells the one company and buy the other... You get exactly the S&P 500 returns (minus fees) over time.. Those returns are much better then gold.. the longer the time line.. the better the returns. It is simply logical that the 500 best companies in the US at making money collect and distribute the most money over time. Those returns I posted are the returns you would have earned owning a S&P 500 index fund over the time specified.

They are a productive asset. Gold is not. It sits there. That is it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
I'm not arguing that stocks can out perform Golds returns, PM's are money and have shown over long periods they store wealth.
You can store wealth or make wealth. Stocks make wealth.. gold might store wealth but buying at such lofty levels as it is at now I think will show to be a much poorer return over time.
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  #465  
Old 02-17-2014, 9:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by smashycrashy View Post
Err, there is this thing called an index fund, you own the index.. if a company drops out that means another is added.. so the fund sells the one company and buy the other... You get exactly the S&P 500 returns (minus fees) over time.. Those returns are much better then gold.. the longer the time line.. the better the returns. It is simply logical that the 500 best companies in the US at making money collect and distribute the most money over time. Those returns I posted are the returns you would have earned owning a S&P 500 index fund over the time specified.



They are a productive asset. Gold is not. It sits there. That is it.







You can store wealth or make wealth. Stocks make wealth.. gold might store wealth but buying at such lofty levels as it is at now I think will show to be a much poorer return over time.

Couldn't agree more. While I own some PM's, notably lead, silver, copper and gold, they are a relatively insignificant part if the over all portfolio.

No one, to my knowledge, has ever gotten rich investing in PM. A few have made some money speculating (gambling) with them. But over time, the stock market and index finds are the better way to put your money to work.

Think about it. Are the people who are trying to sell you PM's doing it because it's good for you or good for them?
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  #466  
Old 02-17-2014, 2:44 PM
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You are correct. The markets are manipulated. Especially gold and silver markets!


Quote:
Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
For every stock that was a high flyer there are 20 that crashed and burned or never made it out of the gates. Sure everyone is elated the market gained 30% last year but that isn't the norm. Markets are manipulated, all of them.

Taking historical charts we can see Gold to the S&P and real estate. They show different facts than posted here. Also every time a company lags inside the S&P it is kicked to the curb and a strong replacement stock is inserted. Skews the numbers and facts. Gold needs no such help, it stands the test of time.

Ammo...heh heh Cabbage patch dolls were hot once too.

http://www.mining.com/this-50-year-c...-stocks-39584/

If you purchased the equivalent in gold as the price of a house in 1980-1982, today you could buy 3 of the same average homes with the gold.

http://www.sharelynx.com/chartstemp/USHLSPOG.php
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  #467  
Old 02-21-2014, 6:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
Gold is making it's comeback to a small degree of late:

Score is Gold $1,290
Silver $20.25

Maybe when we have to add a zero to these figures the world will be much clearer?
Another up week for PM's

Score :

Gold $ 1,327

Silver $ 21.95
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  #468  
Old 02-21-2014, 8:34 PM
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williamcm williamcm is offline
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Wish i would have seen this thread before I sold both my $20 pieces (1891 & 1921) for gold weight.
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  #469  
Old 02-22-2014, 8:01 AM
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20 dead bankers being linked to PM's by "V" in Europe.

Coast to Coast a fun listen. Be prepared !

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8DJn...id=P-PdYTntr88
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  #470  
Old 02-22-2014, 2:31 PM
fivebyfive fivebyfive is offline
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This could be really simple....if society stays down for 6-12 months...who care what gold and silver are worth? Banks are gone...money is worthless. If a functional government is ever installed that honors gold and silver...maybe keep it. I just don't see the point.
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  #471  
Old 02-23-2014, 12:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sixoclockhold View Post
20 dead bankers being linked to PM's by "V" in Europe.

Coast to Coast a fun listen. Be prepared !

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y8DJn...id=P-PdYTntr88
Probably because stocks were up like 40% last year and silver was down 36% last year....hence they were likely to get fired for complete failure at investing.
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  #472  
Old 02-24-2014, 5:01 AM
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Got Silver? Well yes I do, but I, like the Chinese, love Gold. The dollar won't last much longer. I think a Buffalo is on tap for today

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  #473  
Old 02-24-2014, 7:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripon83 View Post
Probably because stocks were up like 40% last year and silver was down 36% last year....hence they were likely to get fired for complete failure at investing.
You holding to your earlier prediction?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ripon83 View Post
March 30 Prediction
$1005 Gold
$16.2 silver
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"No free man shall ever be debarred the use of arms. The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government." -- Thomas Jefferson

9mm + 5.56mm =
.45ACP + 7.62 NATO =
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  #474  
Old 02-24-2014, 11:03 AM
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Default Prediction ??

May 2014 will see $1,100 gold, and $18 silver !!
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  #475  
Old 02-24-2014, 1:49 PM
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It always goes up eventually....
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John 3:16

United Air Epic Fail Video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u99Q7pNAjvg
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  #476  
Old 02-24-2014, 1:50 PM
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Default true that !!

5-10 k someday, but investing in PM's is a fools game?? !!
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  #477  
Old 02-24-2014, 4:20 PM
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Speaking of investing what is the return on your countless hours you invest in arguing on the internet?
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  #478  
Old 02-24-2014, 4:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cantcme View Post
Speaking of investing what is the return on your countless hours you invest in arguing on the internet?
Well lets see, I got $62 million for shareholders of a company by dialoguing on the internet, so pretty damn good.

What else you got?
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  #479  
Old 02-24-2014, 5:25 PM
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Then you should keep on arguing with strangers on the internet.
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  #480  
Old 02-24-2014, 6:47 PM
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Default Up 10%

I'll be honest and say I did not expect it to go from 19.2 to $22, but I will reiterate that I would never invest in PMs. I will hold the PMs I need for SHTF and recommend that to all. I still don't see it as a shinny year for shinny things.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Uxi View Post
You holding to your earlier prediction?
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