View Single Post
  #54  
Old 02-22-2013, 7:27 PM
hoffmang's Avatar
hoffmang hoffmang is offline
I need a LIFE!!
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Peninsula, Bay Area
Posts: 18,448
iTrader: 16 / 100%
Default

There are three likely outcomes and then I'll explain how this impacts California.

1. Madigan doesn't apply for Cert. There are lots of politics and even the other side knows we can count to 5. I haven't thought enough to be able to handicap this, but if that happens a Kachalsky has a near certainty of grant.

2. Upon a cert application, SCOTUS relists and holds Kachalsky until they grant both. Of #2 and #3, I only give this about a 10% chance.

3. Kachalsky is granted in the early April timeframe and Moore's cert petition gets relist/hold until the decision in Kachalsky is delivered. I give this about a 90% chance.

As long as a carry case gets granted before June 2Xish 2013, we will have a decision on carry 5 (maybe 6) 4 (maybe 3) by the end of June 2014. Oral arguments are likely to take place in October/November. A decision could come as early as January, but the betting money is on late June 2014. That means that in July and August of 2014 we will be able to force almost all sheriffs to issue carry licenses in California and with a small amount of very quick mop up litigation, get them all issuing. The lines will be long and it will take a while to get past the initial crush, but buy June 2015, getting a carry license will be like getting a parade permit - even in California.

-Gene
__________________
Gene Hoffman
Chairman, California Gun Rights Foundation

DONATE NOW
to support the rights of California gun owners. Follow @cgfgunrights on Twitter.
Opinions posted in this account are my own and not the approved position of any organization.
I read PMs. But, if you need a response, include an email address or email me directly!


"The problem with being a gun rights supporter is that the left hates guns and the right hates rights." -Anon
Reply With Quote