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Old 11-26-2012, 8:48 PM
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sholling sholling is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Curley Red View Post
Reagan took away our right to loaded open carry also. Reagan was not that great of a person when it came to gun rights, something a lot of people seem to forget real easily.
Some people forget that Reagan started out a Progressive Democrat and an admitted socialist. And they forget that although he was finally a Republican when he became governor he was still evolving toward conservative positions and never completely outgrew his Progressive Democrat past. They also forget that the majority of Americans supported gun control during the 50s and 60s.

Quote:
Originally Posted by kcbrown View Post
This is a guess, but here's how I envision it'll go down:
  1. Some counties will go shall-issue immediately. I don't have a clue how many of them will do so, but most of them will be those that are nearly shall-issue already.
  2. We'll have to file additional suits against one or more of the smaller but more reluctant counties to force them to go shall-issue. How hard they fight will depend on their budget, which will determine their ability to fight.
  3. All of the counties that didn't go shall-issue already will refuse to go shall-issue until we win one or more of the lawsuits started in (2).
  4. The anti-gun strongholds (Los Angeles, Orange, Santa Clara, and San Francisco at a minimum, and possibly including Alameda and San Mateo), will staunchly refuse to go shall-issue regardless of where else we win. We will have to sue them individually and win directly.
  5. Once we win in (4), the anti-gun strongholds go shall-issue but will employ other tactics (that I will not mention here) to make the resulting licenses as useless as possible to those who aren't "special". The California legislature, now a Democrat supermajority, will pass laws that will aid those counties in their resistive efforts. We will have to fight all of those things separately, which will take lots of time and lots of money.
  6. Lather, rinse, repeat step (5) until the counties run out of ways to neuter the right. This will take many years, and quite possibly (greater than 50% chance, in my estimation) more than a decade. And, of course, any unappealable loss in any of the above stops us dead in our tracks.

A win in Richards is just the beginning. There will be a lot more needed before we have truly secured the right for the majority of people in California.
Based on 2nd Amendment litigation history and the makeup of our mentally unbalanced political masters in Sacramento and the counties I strongly suspect that the 9th Circus will reject carry as a right and we'll have to appeal any decision to SCOTUS. But assuming we do win anything more than an empty victory at the 9th I think your projections are right on the money. A solid win in the 9th would bring shall issue to all but a handful of counties but that handful will fight to the end to keep from issuing or honoring LTCs. And I predict that the fun and games coming out of Chicago where they erect new barriers every time one is knocked down will come to California and 10 years of litigation is probably about right.
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Last edited by sholling; 11-26-2012 at 8:53 PM..
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