I remember 2008, drought followed by lots of stuff available. I think the market has a "Slinky" effect. Demand at the front end goes way out, leaving the tail end of Supply way behind. Supply works overtime to catch up and all of a sudden Demand puts on the brakes - but Supply has its own momentum and crashes into the now static back end of Demand.
The April show in Reno will be interesting, see if there's much supply or tight.
|